Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Downsloping...we know it well. 100% that is what it is. Probab not that extreme. Was on 18z as well. But, all models cut totals close to the Apps. Low is jumping to the coast. Want the slp to curve slightly as it rounds the base of the Apps. I think it will. Bugger is going to be strong. Gotcha, makes sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z GFS higher resolution That is more like it. Very realistic. Mtns give the models heck up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS has the Friday storm again, significant thump. Here's the clown through that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Brad Travis is saying we aren't getting much and Spann is still sticking to his 2-4 prediction. This is unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Perhaps the most important trend, barring the next Euro run, is moisture upside. This system is certainly looking a lot wetter than before, whether it tracks more northerly or southerly through the Valley. If that trend can continue, I think areas just north of any mixing transition are going to get a monster hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Warm nose not as bad as the maps suggested, thanks for posting the text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 tri.pngtys.png looks like all snow or at least very very little sleet TYS. TRI no shocker all snow. What about CHA Jax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The biggest trend in my mind is the thermal situation. That's saying a lot since it wasn't even in my top 5 in the last three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The biggest trend in my mind is the thermal situation. That's saying a lot since it wasn't even in my top 5 in the last three days. I think moisture also. Both have trended up, a stronger storm slightly north added benefit of more qpf, but negative of stronger WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm just wondering how much more it can shift at this point, 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 look at the 2m temps..for you guys...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For my backyard, I'd like to cash out on that GFS run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 bna is -25.5C,that would shatter the 5 F mark for the 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 bna is -25.5C,that would shatter the 5 F mark for the 19th Temps are just going to be brutal if this storm verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Temps are just going to be brutal if this storm verifies.... amazing cold Carver if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yeah that text suggests -9 or -10 6z Thursday for TYS. That is incredible cold for mid February.Edit: Or any other time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Our local met here in Huntsville has basically just said we aren't getting squat. I'm officially done! Hang in there. It's going to be close for you. Another shift back to the southeast and you could be back in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For the latest TRI text output, from 12z tues to 06z Thursday we get small amounts but at astronomical snow ratios...it looks conceivable that tri could turn .15-.20 into 5-6 additional inches over 2-3 days post big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not as pretty as Jax's output, but here is CHA. Looks like definitely some sleet/snow mix down there for at least a few hours during the heaviest qpf. Station ID: KCHA Lat: 35.03 Long: -85.19GFS Model Run: 0Z FEB 15, 2015Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr 90hr 96hr 102hr 108hr 114hr 120hrSfc Prs(mb): 983.2 991.6 994.0 994.7 992.4 991.4 988.0 982.7 975.5 977.0 981.7 983.8 983.6 984.7 987.8 988.9 991.4 994.2 994.7 994.2 992.2Mean SLP (mb): 1016.7 1027.0 1030.1 1029.3 1027.1 1026.5 1023.0 1017.6 1009.6 1011.8 1016.9 1018.8 1018.7 1020.6 1023.8 1024.5 1027.8 1031.5 1032.4 1030.1 1027.92m agl Tmp (F): 42.9 19.8 14.0 28.5 28.9 23.0 23.0 31.3 33.3 31.0 17.4 27.8 25.8 23.4 7.9 20.4 14.2 5.3 0.9 19.3 22.32m AGL Dewpt(F): 38.8 11.5 0.5 -2.6 1.1 4.2 4.4 30.5 33.3 30.9 16.9 25.7 24.7 22.7 6.9 15.0 11.8 2.8 -1.5 10.5 18.32m agl RH (%): 85 70 55 26 30 44 44 97 100 99 98 92 96 97 95 79 90 89 90 68 8510m agl W Dir: 321 6 24 32 33 29 24 159 152 327 343 336 316 276 309 289 312 344 305 277 21710m agl Spd(kt): 7 9 12 9 7 5 4 8 4 7 5 7 4 4 3 12 6 5 1 4 16hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.60 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 1.04 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.216hr CPrecip (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Precip H20 (in): 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4Sfc LI ©: 11.3 31.2 37.3 32.8 31.2 33.2 33.2 25.4 20.1 21.2 28.4 20.5 16.2 14.3 21.1 20.2 23.9 30.7 34.4 31.1 26.7700mb VV(-ub/s): 11.2 0.9 -8.1 1.4 0.6 3.1 4.3 9.0 12.0 3.1 -8.5 -3.7 -1.7 0.2 4.1 5.1 3.9 -0.3 3.3 1.6 -0.3Thk1000-500mb(m)5418.6 5348.3 5364.9 5395.4 5422.1 5419.8 5426.4 5465.0 5494.6 5432.2 5336.6 5309.8 5250.7 5174.5 5098.7 5089.7 5111.9 5112.4 5158.4 5242.0 5302.4Thk1000-850mb(m)1322.8 1251.4 1243.3 1262.7 1280.6 1284.6 1280.8 1296.1 1315.2 1294.8 1267.6 1270.9 1272.4 1262.5 1230.3 1241.8 1231.3 1211.3 1213.8 1236.8 1261.5Thk850-700mb(m):1529.0 1520.2 1538.9 1541.7 1547.9 1550.0 1548.1 1561.8 1569.3 1543.5 1524.3 1514.4 1491.8 1463.6 1441.2 1422.8 1435.4 1446.0 1463.5 1480.5 1500.3Apparent Tmp(F): 38 8 -1 19 22 16 18 23 29 24 10 20 20 17 2 7 4 -5 0 12 23PType: FROZEN LIQUID LIQUID SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW1000mb GPH (m): 137 211 230 235 216 209 182 137 77 90 133 147 146 156 183 190 210 233 237 232 2151000mb Temp ©: 9.2 -5.9 -9.6 -2.9 -1.1 -4.3 -4.1 0.2 2.5 1.1 -6.3 -2.1 -2.2 -3.6 -11.3 -6.2 -9.1 -14.2 -16.1 -8.1 -4.21000mb Dewpt©: 4.6 -11.4 -17.7 -19.8 -17.6 -15.3 -14.9 -0.4 2.3 0.5 -7.3 -4.3 -3.6 -4.6 -13.7 -11.2 -11.3 -16.4 -18.2 -14.4 -8.41000mb RH (%): 72 65 52 26 27 42 43 95 98 96 92 85 90 93 83 68 84 84 84 60 731000mb Dir: 319 7 25 33 34 29 22 160 153 329 344 337 317 276 310 289 312 345 302 277 2181000mb Speed(kt): 10 11 14 10 8 6 4 10 6 9 6 8 6 6 4 15 7 6 1 5 21000mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0975mb GPH (m): 347 409 425 434 417 407 381 339 281 294 330 348 346 355 377 387 405 425 427 428 414975mb Temp ©: 8.5 -7.3 -11.2 -5.3 -2.7 -5.7 -4.9 -1.3 1.3 -0.2 -6.9 -3.9 -3.3 -4.8 -12.3 -8.2 -10.5 -15.9 -17.7 -10.0 -5.8975mb Dewpt©: 2.8 -12.9 -18.8 -20.8 -19.3 -16.5 -16.2 -1.8 1.0 -0.9 -8.6 -5.9 -5.6 -6.1 -15.0 -13.1 -13.5 -17.9 -19.5 -15.4 -9.4975mb RH (%): 67 64 54 29 27 42 41 96 98 95 88 86 85 90 80 68 79 85 86 65 76975mb Dir: 313 8 26 33 35 34 32 160 153 329 351 337 320 279 312 289 312 343 310 278 237975mb Speed(kt): 18 20 22 14 13 11 7 14 7 11 9 10 10 11 8 19 14 9 2 6 3975mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0950mb GPH (m): 561 611 624 637 622 611 585 546 490 501 533 552 551 559 575 588 605 620 621 627 617950mb Temp ©: 6.8 -9.2 -13.1 -7.4 -4.4 -5.9 -5.2 -2.8 0.8 -1.7 -7.8 -6.0 -5.1 -6.3 -13.7 -10.2 -12.3 -17.7 -18.9 -12.1 -7.6950mb Dewpt©: 1.2 -13.8 -19.4 -21.5 -20.7 -18.3 -16.3 -2.9 0.5 -2.3 -9.6 -7.0 -6.8 -7.2 -15.8 -14.4 -14.8 -18.6 -21.5 -16.0 -10.0950mb RH (%): 67 69 60 32 27 37 42 99 98 96 88 92 88 93 84 72 82 93 80 73 83950mb Dir: 311 10 27 34 39 56 105 158 152 330 354 337 319 290 313 289 311 334 319 280 249950mb Speed(kt): 28 25 27 16 16 12 6 18 17 19 15 11 13 17 14 22 19 12 7 7 4950mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.6 10.7 0.5 3.0 0.1 2.2 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.0925mb GPH (m): 779 816 826 844 831 820 794 757 705 713 739 760 760 767 777 792 808 819 819 830 824925mb Temp ©: 4.6 -11.2 -14.9 -9.4 -5.5 -3.5 -4.6 -3.3 1.8 -2.9 -9.5 -7.8 -7.0 -7.9 -14.8 -12.2 -14.2 -19.5 -19.5 -14.1 -9.3925mb Dewpt©: 0.3 -14.5 -20.3 -22.0 -22.9 -19.9 -17.5 -3.4 1.6 -3.6 -10.4 -8.0 -7.3 -8.4 -16.4 -15.2 -15.7 -19.5 -23.4 -16.4 -10.8925mb RH (%): 74 77 64 35 24 27 36 99 99 95 93 98 98 97 88 78 89 100 71 83 89925mb Dir: 310 11 27 35 40 97 149 162 171 331 353 337 318 297 314 289 310 326 322 282 260925mb Speed(kt): 30 27 31 18 16 9 14 25 27 24 20 12 13 21 23 24 21 15 14 8 6925mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 73.2 26.5 16.3 12.7 50.6 15.9 9.9 0.0 0.0 2.1 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.0900mb GPH (m): 1001 1026 1033 1055 1046 1037 1010 975 927 930 951 973 973 979 984 1001 1015 1022 1023 1038 1035900mb Temp ©: 2.3 -13.1 -14.3 -11.1 -6.0 -1.9 -3.8 -1.2 3.1 -2.4 -8.6 -9.5 -8.4 -9.6 -15.6 -14.1 -16.2 -20.8 -18.8 -16.0 -10.0900mb Dewpt©: -0.5 -16.0 -25.9 -23.2 -24.6 -18.3 -18.2 -1.4 3.0 -3.2 -10.5 -9.5 -8.9 -9.8 -18.4 -15.9 -16.9 -21.1 -26.9 -16.8 -12.4900mb RH (%): 82 79 38 37 22 27 32 99 100 94 87 100 96 98 79 87 95 98 49 93 82900mb Dir: 308 9 20 33 28 162 169 180 191 328 352 337 319 303 313 289 308 317 318 287 288900mb Speed(kt): 32 28 34 19 13 6 22 36 32 23 24 15 15 24 30 25 22 19 21 10 11900mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 54.0 45.5 16.2 8.7 91.9 80.8 12.9 0.0 0.4 6.7 20.7 0.0 1.6 0.0850mb GPH (m): 1460 1463 1473 1497 1496 1493 1462 1433 1392 1385 1400 1418 1418 1418 1413 1431 1441 1445 1451 1469 1477850mb Temp ©: -1.2 -9.6 -5.9 -4.6 -1.4 -0.4 -2.0 0.3 4.5 -1.2 -2.9 -5.6 -6.9 -12.6 -17.6 -18.0 -20.0 -19.3 -16.2 -13.5 -9.2850mb Dewpt©: -3.0 -34.3 -42.9 -36.4 -14.2 -9.1 -4.4 0.3 4.5 -1.5 -12.4 -18.2 -16.4 -12.7 -23.9 -18.1 -20.2 -32.0 -37.2 -33.0 -10.5850mb RH (%): 88 12 4 7 37 52 83 100 100 98 48 37 47 100 58 99 98 33 15 18 91850mb Dir: 297 333 341 343 310 243 215 200 221 304 326 318 312 299 307 290 304 316 308 305 296850mb Speed(kt): 42 31 36 24 15 17 29 46 43 16 26 22 25 27 36 28 24 27 33 29 26850mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.8 164.2 103.6 73.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 51.9 0.0 51.7 32.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2800mb GPH (m): 1941 1934 1952 1978 1980 1978 1948 1922 1886 1870 1880 1893 1889 1878 1865 1881 1890 1896 1908 1931 1946800mb Temp ©: -4.1 -6.0 -1.6 -1.0 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 2.4 3.4 -0.9 -3.4 -6.1 -9.2 -15.2 -19.2 -21.8 -20.4 -18.3 -15.2 -12.2 -8.9800mb Dewpt©: -5.1 -45.2 -52.1 -14.0 -4.0 -2.2 -0.3 2.3 3.3 -1.7 -20.0 -20.2 -18.3 -15.6 -26.9 -21.9 -33.3 -38.5 -38.7 -24.0 -9.1800mb RH (%): 93 3 1 37 79 85 99 99 99 94 27 32 48 97 51 99 32 16 12 37 99800mb Dir: 297 313 316 313 296 264 237 220 237 272 306 299 302 285 300 290 307 311 308 311 292800mb Speed(kt): 51 44 48 39 28 30 37 62 49 21 30 26 28 32 45 31 35 35 43 43 40800mb CLMx(g/kg) 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 213.0 108.8 77.4 38.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.5 0.0 129.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1750mb GPH (m): 2449 2441 2466 2493 2496 2495 2463 2443 2408 2383 2388 2397 2385 2365 2344 2353 2367 2378 2396 2425 2446750mb Temp ©: -5.0 -4.4 -1.7 -2.0 -1.3 -1.0 -1.8 0.8 1.2 -3.2 -5.9 -7.1 -12.3 -16.2 -20.3 -24.8 -20.6 -18.6 -15.4 -12.7 -9.3750mb Dewpt©: -6.9 -49.9 -28.4 -6.1 -2.2 -3.8 -4.6 0.8 1.1 -7.6 -27.6 -26.2 -19.4 -22.3 -33.4 -28.6 -41.9 -41.8 -37.3 -15.4 -9.5750mb RH (%): 87 2 11 73 94 81 81 100 99 71 17 21 56 60 31 71 14 12 14 80 99750mb Dir: 297 308 311 304 292 272 236 234 244 268 298 287 294 274 295 293 305 305 307 307 294750mb Speed(kt): 62 59 60 51 39 40 39 69 52 29 35 35 34 47 55 41 43 44 51 59 52750mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 28.0 125.2 119.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 61.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.7700mb GPH (m): 2989 2983 3012 3039 3044 3043 3010 2995 2961 2929 2925 2932 2910 2882 2854 2854 2877 2891 2915 2949 2977700mb Temp ©: -8.1 -5.1 -4.0 -4.6 -3.5 -3.9 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 -3.6 -8.8 -9.0 -14.5 -18.8 -20.8 -25.3 -21.1 -19.7 -17.1 -14.6 -11.9700mb Dewpt©: -8.4 -48.2 -14.7 -5.8 -4.0 -9.6 -4.7 -2.5 -1.3 -23.4 -35.6 -33.7 -25.2 -27.4 -41.7 -46.3 -44.3 -43.6 -38.1 -15.6 -12.0700mb RH (%): 97 2 44 91 96 64 93 100 100 20 10 12 41 47 14 13 11 11 15 92 99700mb Dir: 297 307 312 303 289 270 237 245 248 269 292 279 286 273 288 295 303 302 304 302 295700mb Speed(kt): 73 70 69 56 50 45 36 67 54 44 48 45 39 56 60 57 51 52 58 69 59700mb CLMx(g/kg) 21.6 0.0 0.0 14.1 126.3 1.3 7.8 88.0 166.8 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9 217.2650mb GPH (m): 3563 3562 3593 3620 3627 3624 3593 3580 3550 3512 3495 3502 3469 3431 3400 3391 3423 3439 3468 3509 3543650mb Temp ©: -9.6 -7.7 -7.4 -7.2 -7.1 -7.4 -6.3 -5.7 -4.2 -5.4 -11.3 -12.4 -16.9 -20.9 -22.4 -26.2 -22.1 -21.3 -19.3 -15.8 -13.2650mb Dewpt©: -17.4 -28.7 -13.1 -8.8 -7.4 -14.8 -6.5 -5.7 -4.2 -34.7 -42.3 -34.4 -26.5 -40.0 -44.0 -51.6 -43.9 -46.0 -42.1 -21.9 -14.1650mb RH (%): 53 17 64 88 98 56 98 100 100 8 6 15 44 17 13 8 13 10 12 60 93650mb Dir: 302 308 310 303 288 267 248 256 253 262 285 268 272 270 283 296 302 302 304 300 297650mb Speed(kt): 79 77 73 60 56 49 38 64 56 60 59 50 46 58 64 68 60 58 64 72 67650mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 145.5 1.4 35.6 96.9 179.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 100.3600mb GPH (m): 4179 4180 4212 4241 4248 4243 4217 4204 4177 4136 4106 4108 4066 4020 3985 3969 4009 4026 4061 4112 4152600mb Temp ©: -11.3 -10.8 -11.1 -9.7 -9.9 -10.8 -9.1 -8.4 -7.6 -8.6 -14.2 -16.5 -20.0 -23.4 -25.6 -26.1 -24.2 -23.7 -20.8 -15.6 -13.9600mb Dewpt©: -24.2 -21.7 -15.5 -13.3 -13.7 -19.3 -9.4 -8.5 -8.3 -33.6 -38.2 -30.7 -22.7 -50.9 -43.4 -52.7 -45.3 -49.1 -44.3 -33.1 -17.6600mb RH (%): 34 41 70 75 74 50 97 99 95 12 12 29 80 7 18 7 13 9 11 22 74600mb Dir: 308 308 308 302 285 268 254 262 258 257 276 259 263 267 281 295 300 303 305 303 299600mb Speed(kt): 83 79 77 67 59 52 43 64 59 72 70 55 53 59 70 83 66 64 72 75 71600mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1 17.1 149.8 228.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6550mb GPH (m): 4842 4844 4876 4909 4916 4908 4886 4876 4849 4804 4761 4757 4706 4651 4610 4598 4639 4659 4701 4767 4809550mb Temp ©: -15.2 -14.5 -14.1 -12.9 -12.4 -13.7 -12.6 -11.4 -11.9 -13.1 -17.6 -20.5 -23.6 -27.4 -30.0 -27.3 -27.2 -25.9 -22.7 -17.6 -17.1550mb Dewpt©: -21.6 -22.0 -19.7 -18.1 -23.5 -23.9 -12.8 -11.5 -13.4 -32.1 -34.6 -26.1 -24.4 -53.3 -44.3 -51.3 -52.0 -53.2 -42.4 -34.4 -22.8550mb RH (%): 59 53 63 65 40 43 99 99 88 19 22 61 94 7 25 9 8 7 16 23 62550mb Dir: 308 307 306 299 285 272 260 259 259 253 264 257 257 264 280 294 298 303 304 307 298550mb Speed(kt): 88 82 81 72 62 56 47 64 64 79 83 67 61 61 76 94 74 74 82 83 75550mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.0 268.3 325.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0500mb GPH (m): 5556 5560 5595 5630 5638 5628 5608 5602 5571 5523 5469 5457 5396 5330 5282 5279 5322 5346 5396 5474 5518500mb Temp ©: -19.8 -19.2 -17.5 -16.9 -16.6 -16.7 -16.6 -15.6 -17.6 -18.6 -21.1 -24.3 -28.3 -31.9 -34.3 -30.4 -29.2 -27.9 -26.0 -21.8 -21.4500mb Dewpt©: -25.1 -24.5 -24.7 -22.3 -27.7 -32.5 -16.7 -15.7 -18.7 -29.3 -38.0 -25.2 -28.7 -56.7 -49.1 -54.9 -55.1 -51.0 -41.6 -31.5 -24.9500mb RH (%): 63 63 54 63 38 25 99 99 91 39 21 92 97 8 22 8 7 10 23 42 73500mb Dir: 304 305 302 295 287 275 268 257 257 251 258 257 250 263 279 291 296 300 303 306 296500mb Speed(kt): 90 89 86 79 64 59 57 66 68 84 96 87 73 65 83 100 90 89 89 90 81500mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 106.9 414.4 362.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 52.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 0z UKMET seems to have made a pretty big move north. From northern AL/southern TN at 48 to central NC. Most of the state would have issues with that track. Off to bed I go. Hope the euro didn't get the move north memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 getting concerned of a big ice storm next weekend,put down a possible snow pack,even the euro is showing (just using bna as an example),it's showing the 2m's at -23.2C the 19th,no way it's gonna warm up like the models are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GEFS snow mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not as pretty as Jax's output, but here is CHA. Looks like definitely some sleet/snow mix down there for at least a few hours during the heaviest qpf. Station ID: KCHA Lat: 35.03 Long: -85.19 GFS Model Run: 0Z FEB 15, 2015 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr 90hr 96hr 102hr 108hr 114hr 120hr Sfc Prs(mb): 983.2 991.6 994.0 994.7 992.4 991.4 988.0 982.7 975.5 977.0 981.7 983.8 983.6 984.7 987.8 988.9 991.4 994.2 994.7 994.2 992.2 Mean SLP (mb): 1016.7 1027.0 1030.1 1029.3 1027.1 1026.5 1023.0 1017.6 1009.6 1011.8 1016.9 1018.8 1018.7 1020.6 1023.8 1024.5 1027.8 1031.5 1032.4 1030.1 1027.9 2m agl Tmp (F): 42.9 19.8 14.0 28.5 28.9 23.0 23.0 31.3 33.3 31.0 17.4 27.8 25.8 23.4 7.9 20.4 14.2 5.3 0.9 19.3 22.3 2m AGL Dewpt(F): 38.8 11.5 0.5 -2.6 1.1 4.2 4.4 30.5 33.3 30.9 16.9 25.7 24.7 22.7 6.9 15.0 11.8 2.8 -1.5 10.5 18.3 2m agl RH (%): 85 70 55 26 30 44 44 97 100 99 98 92 96 97 95 79 90 89 90 68 85 10m agl W Dir: 321 6 24 32 33 29 24 159 152 327 343 336 316 276 309 289 312 344 305 277 217 10m agl Spd(kt): 7 9 12 9 7 5 4 8 4 7 5 7 4 4 3 12 6 5 1 4 1 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.60 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 1.04 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.21 6hr CPrecip (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Precip H20 (in): 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 Sfc LI ©: 11.3 31.2 37.3 32.8 31.2 33.2 33.2 25.4 20.1 21.2 28.4 20.5 16.2 14.3 21.1 20.2 23.9 30.7 34.4 31.1 26.7 700mb VV(-ub/s): 11.2 0.9 -8.1 1.4 0.6 3.1 4.3 9.0 12.0 3.1 -8.5 -3.7 -1.7 0.2 4.1 5.1 3.9 -0.3 3.3 1.6 -0.3 Thk1000-500mb(m)5418.6 5348.3 5364.9 5395.4 5422.1 5419.8 5426.4 5465.0 5494.6 5432.2 5336.6 5309.8 5250.7 5174.5 5098.7 5089.7 5111.9 5112.4 5158.4 5242.0 5302.4 Thk1000-850mb(m)1322.8 1251.4 1243.3 1262.7 1280.6 1284.6 1280.8 1296.1 1315.2 1294.8 1267.6 1270.9 1272.4 1262.5 1230.3 1241.8 1231.3 1211.3 1213.8 1236.8 1261.5 Thk850-700mb(m):1529.0 1520.2 1538.9 1541.7 1547.9 1550.0 1548.1 1561.8 1569.3 1543.5 1524.3 1514.4 1491.8 1463.6 1441.2 1422.8 1435.4 1446.0 1463.5 1480.5 1500.3 Apparent Tmp(F): 38 8 -1 19 22 16 18 23 29 24 10 20 20 17 2 7 4 -5 0 12 23 PType: FROZEN LIQUID LIQUID SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW 1000mb GPH (m): 137 211 230 235 216 209 182 137 77 90 133 147 146 156 183 190 210 233 237 232 215 1000mb Temp ©: 9.2 -5.9 -9.6 -2.9 -1.1 -4.3 -4.1 0.2 2.5 1.1 -6.3 -2.1 -2.2 -3.6 -11.3 -6.2 -9.1 -14.2 -16.1 -8.1 -4.2 1000mb Dewpt©: 4.6 -11.4 -17.7 -19.8 -17.6 -15.3 -14.9 -0.4 2.3 0.5 -7.3 -4.3 -3.6 -4.6 -13.7 -11.2 -11.3 -16.4 -18.2 -14.4 -8.4 1000mb RH (%): 72 65 52 26 27 42 43 95 98 96 92 85 90 93 83 68 84 84 84 60 73 1000mb Dir: 319 7 25 33 34 29 22 160 153 329 344 337 317 276 310 289 312 345 302 277 218 1000mb Speed(kt): 10 11 14 10 8 6 4 10 6 9 6 8 6 6 4 15 7 6 1 5 2 1000mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 975mb GPH (m): 347 409 425 434 417 407 381 339 281 294 330 348 346 355 377 387 405 425 427 428 414 975mb Temp ©: 8.5 -7.3 -11.2 -5.3 -2.7 -5.7 -4.9 -1.3 1.3 -0.2 -6.9 -3.9 -3.3 -4.8 -12.3 -8.2 -10.5 -15.9 -17.7 -10.0 -5.8 975mb Dewpt©: 2.8 -12.9 -18.8 -20.8 -19.3 -16.5 -16.2 -1.8 1.0 -0.9 -8.6 -5.9 -5.6 -6.1 -15.0 -13.1 -13.5 -17.9 -19.5 -15.4 -9.4 975mb RH (%): 67 64 54 29 27 42 41 96 98 95 88 86 85 90 80 68 79 85 86 65 76 975mb Dir: 313 8 26 33 35 34 32 160 153 329 351 337 320 279 312 289 312 343 310 278 237 975mb Speed(kt): 18 20 22 14 13 11 7 14 7 11 9 10 10 11 8 19 14 9 2 6 3 975mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 950mb GPH (m): 561 611 624 637 622 611 585 546 490 501 533 552 551 559 575 588 605 620 621 627 617 950mb Temp ©: 6.8 -9.2 -13.1 -7.4 -4.4 -5.9 -5.2 -2.8 0.8 -1.7 -7.8 -6.0 -5.1 -6.3 -13.7 -10.2 -12.3 -17.7 -18.9 -12.1 -7.6 950mb Dewpt©: 1.2 -13.8 -19.4 -21.5 -20.7 -18.3 -16.3 -2.9 0.5 -2.3 -9.6 -7.0 -6.8 -7.2 -15.8 -14.4 -14.8 -18.6 -21.5 -16.0 -10.0 950mb RH (%): 67 69 60 32 27 37 42 99 98 96 88 92 88 93 84 72 82 93 80 73 83 950mb Dir: 311 10 27 34 39 56 105 158 152 330 354 337 319 290 313 289 311 334 319 280 249 950mb Speed(kt): 28 25 27 16 16 12 6 18 17 19 15 11 13 17 14 22 19 12 7 7 4 950mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.6 10.7 0.5 3.0 0.1 2.2 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 925mb GPH (m): 779 816 826 844 831 820 794 757 705 713 739 760 760 767 777 792 808 819 819 830 824 925mb Temp ©: 4.6 -11.2 -14.9 -9.4 -5.5 -3.5 -4.6 -3.3 1.8 -2.9 -9.5 -7.8 -7.0 -7.9 -14.8 -12.2 -14.2 -19.5 -19.5 -14.1 -9.3 925mb Dewpt©: 0.3 -14.5 -20.3 -22.0 -22.9 -19.9 -17.5 -3.4 1.6 -3.6 -10.4 -8.0 -7.3 -8.4 -16.4 -15.2 -15.7 -19.5 -23.4 -16.4 -10.8 925mb RH (%): 74 77 64 35 24 27 36 99 99 95 93 98 98 97 88 78 89 100 71 83 89 925mb Dir: 310 11 27 35 40 97 149 162 171 331 353 337 318 297 314 289 310 326 322 282 260 925mb Speed(kt): 30 27 31 18 16 9 14 25 27 24 20 12 13 21 23 24 21 15 14 8 6 925mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 73.2 26.5 16.3 12.7 50.6 15.9 9.9 0.0 0.0 2.1 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 900mb GPH (m): 1001 1026 1033 1055 1046 1037 1010 975 927 930 951 973 973 979 984 1001 1015 1022 1023 1038 1035 900mb Temp ©: 2.3 -13.1 -14.3 -11.1 -6.0 -1.9 -3.8 -1.2 3.1 -2.4 -8.6 -9.5 -8.4 -9.6 -15.6 -14.1 -16.2 -20.8 -18.8 -16.0 -10.0 900mb Dewpt©: -0.5 -16.0 -25.9 -23.2 -24.6 -18.3 -18.2 -1.4 3.0 -3.2 -10.5 -9.5 -8.9 -9.8 -18.4 -15.9 -16.9 -21.1 -26.9 -16.8 -12.4 900mb RH (%): 82 79 38 37 22 27 32 99 100 94 87 100 96 98 79 87 95 98 49 93 82 900mb Dir: 308 9 20 33 28 162 169 180 191 328 352 337 319 303 313 289 308 317 318 287 288 900mb Speed(kt): 32 28 34 19 13 6 22 36 32 23 24 15 15 24 30 25 22 19 21 10 11 900mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 54.0 45.5 16.2 8.7 91.9 80.8 12.9 0.0 0.4 6.7 20.7 0.0 1.6 0.0 850mb GPH (m): 1460 1463 1473 1497 1496 1493 1462 1433 1392 1385 1400 1418 1418 1418 1413 1431 1441 1445 1451 1469 1477 850mb Temp ©: -1.2 -9.6 -5.9 -4.6 -1.4 -0.4 -2.0 0.3 4.5 -1.2 -2.9 -5.6 -6.9 -12.6 -17.6 -18.0 -20.0 -19.3 -16.2 -13.5 -9.2 850mb Dewpt©: -3.0 -34.3 -42.9 -36.4 -14.2 -9.1 -4.4 0.3 4.5 -1.5 -12.4 -18.2 -16.4 -12.7 -23.9 -18.1 -20.2 -32.0 -37.2 -33.0 -10.5 850mb RH (%): 88 12 4 7 37 52 83 100 100 98 48 37 47 100 58 99 98 33 15 18 91 850mb Dir: 297 333 341 343 310 243 215 200 221 304 326 318 312 299 307 290 304 316 308 305 296 850mb Speed(kt): 42 31 36 24 15 17 29 46 43 16 26 22 25 27 36 28 24 27 33 29 26 850mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.8 164.2 103.6 73.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 51.9 0.0 51.7 32.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 800mb GPH (m): 1941 1934 1952 1978 1980 1978 1948 1922 1886 1870 1880 1893 1889 1878 1865 1881 1890 1896 1908 1931 1946 800mb Temp ©: -4.1 -6.0 -1.6 -1.0 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 2.4 3.4 -0.9 -3.4 -6.1 -9.2 -15.2 -19.2 -21.8 -20.4 -18.3 -15.2 -12.2 -8.9 800mb Dewpt©: -5.1 -45.2 -52.1 -14.0 -4.0 -2.2 -0.3 2.3 3.3 -1.7 -20.0 -20.2 -18.3 -15.6 -26.9 -21.9 -33.3 -38.5 -38.7 -24.0 -9.1 800mb RH (%): 93 3 1 37 79 85 99 99 99 94 27 32 48 97 51 99 32 16 12 37 99 800mb Dir: 297 313 316 313 296 264 237 220 237 272 306 299 302 285 300 290 307 311 308 311 292 800mb Speed(kt): 51 44 48 39 28 30 37 62 49 21 30 26 28 32 45 31 35 35 43 43 40 800mb CLMx(g/kg) 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 213.0 108.8 77.4 38.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.5 0.0 129.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 750mb GPH (m): 2449 2441 2466 2493 2496 2495 2463 2443 2408 2383 2388 2397 2385 2365 2344 2353 2367 2378 2396 2425 2446 750mb Temp ©: -5.0 -4.4 -1.7 -2.0 -1.3 -1.0 -1.8 0.8 1.2 -3.2 -5.9 -7.1 -12.3 -16.2 -20.3 -24.8 -20.6 -18.6 -15.4 -12.7 -9.3 750mb Dewpt©: -6.9 -49.9 -28.4 -6.1 -2.2 -3.8 -4.6 0.8 1.1 -7.6 -27.6 -26.2 -19.4 -22.3 -33.4 -28.6 -41.9 -41.8 -37.3 -15.4 -9.5 750mb RH (%): 87 2 11 73 94 81 81 100 99 71 17 21 56 60 31 71 14 12 14 80 99 750mb Dir: 297 308 311 304 292 272 236 234 244 268 298 287 294 274 295 293 305 305 307 307 294 750mb Speed(kt): 62 59 60 51 39 40 39 69 52 29 35 35 34 47 55 41 43 44 51 59 52 750mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 28.0 125.2 119.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 61.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.7 700mb GPH (m): 2989 2983 3012 3039 3044 3043 3010 2995 2961 2929 2925 2932 2910 2882 2854 2854 2877 2891 2915 2949 2977 700mb Temp ©: -8.1 -5.1 -4.0 -4.6 -3.5 -3.9 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 -3.6 -8.8 -9.0 -14.5 -18.8 -20.8 -25.3 -21.1 -19.7 -17.1 -14.6 -11.9 700mb Dewpt©: -8.4 -48.2 -14.7 -5.8 -4.0 -9.6 -4.7 -2.5 -1.3 -23.4 -35.6 -33.7 -25.2 -27.4 -41.7 -46.3 -44.3 -43.6 -38.1 -15.6 -12.0 700mb RH (%): 97 2 44 91 96 64 93 100 100 20 10 12 41 47 14 13 11 11 15 92 99 700mb Dir: 297 307 312 303 289 270 237 245 248 269 292 279 286 273 288 295 303 302 304 302 295 700mb Speed(kt): 73 70 69 56 50 45 36 67 54 44 48 45 39 56 60 57 51 52 58 69 59 700mb CLMx(g/kg) 21.6 0.0 0.0 14.1 126.3 1.3 7.8 88.0 166.8 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9 217.2 650mb GPH (m): 3563 3562 3593 3620 3627 3624 3593 3580 3550 3512 3495 3502 3469 3431 3400 3391 3423 3439 3468 3509 3543 650mb Temp ©: -9.6 -7.7 -7.4 -7.2 -7.1 -7.4 -6.3 -5.7 -4.2 -5.4 -11.3 -12.4 -16.9 -20.9 -22.4 -26.2 -22.1 -21.3 -19.3 -15.8 -13.2 650mb Dewpt©: -17.4 -28.7 -13.1 -8.8 -7.4 -14.8 -6.5 -5.7 -4.2 -34.7 -42.3 -34.4 -26.5 -40.0 -44.0 -51.6 -43.9 -46.0 -42.1 -21.9 -14.1 650mb RH (%): 53 17 64 88 98 56 98 100 100 8 6 15 44 17 13 8 13 10 12 60 93 650mb Dir: 302 308 310 303 288 267 248 256 253 262 285 268 272 270 283 296 302 302 304 300 297 650mb Speed(kt): 79 77 73 60 56 49 38 64 56 60 59 50 46 58 64 68 60 58 64 72 67 650mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 145.5 1.4 35.6 96.9 179.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 100.3 600mb GPH (m): 4179 4180 4212 4241 4248 4243 4217 4204 4177 4136 4106 4108 4066 4020 3985 3969 4009 4026 4061 4112 4152 600mb Temp ©: -11.3 -10.8 -11.1 -9.7 -9.9 -10.8 -9.1 -8.4 -7.6 -8.6 -14.2 -16.5 -20.0 -23.4 -25.6 -26.1 -24.2 -23.7 -20.8 -15.6 -13.9 600mb Dewpt©: -24.2 -21.7 -15.5 -13.3 -13.7 -19.3 -9.4 -8.5 -8.3 -33.6 -38.2 -30.7 -22.7 -50.9 -43.4 -52.7 -45.3 -49.1 -44.3 -33.1 -17.6 600mb RH (%): 34 41 70 75 74 50 97 99 95 12 12 29 80 7 18 7 13 9 11 22 74 600mb Dir: 308 308 308 302 285 268 254 262 258 257 276 259 263 267 281 295 300 303 305 303 299 600mb Speed(kt): 83 79 77 67 59 52 43 64 59 72 70 55 53 59 70 83 66 64 72 75 71 600mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1 17.1 149.8 228.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 550mb GPH (m): 4842 4844 4876 4909 4916 4908 4886 4876 4849 4804 4761 4757 4706 4651 4610 4598 4639 4659 4701 4767 4809 550mb Temp ©: -15.2 -14.5 -14.1 -12.9 -12.4 -13.7 -12.6 -11.4 -11.9 -13.1 -17.6 -20.5 -23.6 -27.4 -30.0 -27.3 -27.2 -25.9 -22.7 -17.6 -17.1 550mb Dewpt©: -21.6 -22.0 -19.7 -18.1 -23.5 -23.9 -12.8 -11.5 -13.4 -32.1 -34.6 -26.1 -24.4 -53.3 -44.3 -51.3 -52.0 -53.2 -42.4 -34.4 -22.8 550mb RH (%): 59 53 63 65 40 43 99 99 88 19 22 61 94 7 25 9 8 7 16 23 62 550mb Dir: 308 307 306 299 285 272 260 259 259 253 264 257 257 264 280 294 298 303 304 307 298 550mb Speed(kt): 88 82 81 72 62 56 47 64 64 79 83 67 61 61 76 94 74 74 82 83 75 550mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.0 268.3 325.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 500mb GPH (m): 5556 5560 5595 5630 5638 5628 5608 5602 5571 5523 5469 5457 5396 5330 5282 5279 5322 5346 5396 5474 5518 500mb Temp ©: -19.8 -19.2 -17.5 -16.9 -16.6 -16.7 -16.6 -15.6 -17.6 -18.6 -21.1 -24.3 -28.3 -31.9 -34.3 -30.4 -29.2 -27.9 -26.0 -21.8 -21.4 500mb Dewpt©: -25.1 -24.5 -24.7 -22.3 -27.7 -32.5 -16.7 -15.7 -18.7 -29.3 -38.0 -25.2 -28.7 -56.7 -49.1 -54.9 -55.1 -51.0 -41.6 -31.5 -24.9 500mb RH (%): 63 63 54 63 38 25 99 99 91 39 21 92 97 8 22 8 7 10 23 42 73 500mb Dir: 304 305 302 295 287 275 268 257 257 251 258 257 250 263 279 291 296 300 303 306 296 500mb Speed(kt): 90 89 86 79 64 59 57 66 68 84 96 87 73 65 83 100 90 89 89 90 81 500mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 106.9 414.4 362.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 52.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think I've found out why we are seeing the warmer trends on tonight's model runs. I'll post what I'm talking about in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not as pretty as Jax's output, but here is CHA. Looks like definitely some sleet/snow mix down there for at least a few hours during the heaviest qpf. Station ID: KCHA Lat: 35.03 Long: -85.19 GFS Model Run: 0Z FEB 15, 2015 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr 90hr 96hr 102hr 108hr 114hr 120hr Sfc Prs(mb): 983.2 991.6 994.0 994.7 992.4 991.4 988.0 982.7 975.5 977.0 981.7 983.8 983.6 984.7 987.8 988.9 991.4 994.2 994.7 994.2 992.2 Mean SLP (mb): 1016.7 1027.0 1030.1 1029.3 1027.1 1026.5 1023.0 1017.6 1009.6 1011.8 1016.9 1018.8 1018.7 1020.6 1023.8 1024.5 1027.8 1031.5 1032.4 1030.1 1027.9 2m agl Tmp (F): 42.9 19.8 14.0 28.5 28.9 23.0 23.0 31.3 33.3 31.0 17.4 27.8 25.8 23.4 7.9 20.4 14.2 5.3 0.9 19.3 22.3 2m AGL Dewpt(F): 38.8 11.5 0.5 -2.6 1.1 4.2 4.4 30.5 33.3 30.9 16.9 25.7 24.7 22.7 6.9 15.0 11.8 2.8 -1.5 10.5 18.3 2m agl RH (%): 85 70 55 26 30 44 44 97 100 99 98 92 96 97 95 79 90 89 90 68 85 10m agl W Dir: 321 6 24 32 33 29 24 159 152 327 343 336 316 276 309 289 312 344 305 277 217 10m agl Spd(kt): 7 9 12 9 7 5 4 8 4 7 5 7 4 4 3 12 6 5 1 4 1 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.60 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 1.04 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.21 6hr CPrecip (in) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Precip H20 (in): 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 Sfc LI ©: 11.3 31.2 37.3 32.8 31.2 33.2 33.2 25.4 20.1 21.2 28.4 20.5 16.2 14.3 21.1 20.2 23.9 30.7 34.4 31.1 26.7 700mb VV(-ub/s): 11.2 0.9 -8.1 1.4 0.6 3.1 4.3 9.0 12.0 3.1 -8.5 -3.7 -1.7 0.2 4.1 5.1 3.9 -0.3 3.3 1.6 -0.3 Thk1000-500mb(m)5418.6 5348.3 5364.9 5395.4 5422.1 5419.8 5426.4 5465.0 5494.6 5432.2 5336.6 5309.8 5250.7 5174.5 5098.7 5089.7 5111.9 5112.4 5158.4 5242.0 5302.4 Thk1000-850mb(m)1322.8 1251.4 1243.3 1262.7 1280.6 1284.6 1280.8 1296.1 1315.2 1294.8 1267.6 1270.9 1272.4 1262.5 1230.3 1241.8 1231.3 1211.3 1213.8 1236.8 1261.5 Thk850-700mb(m):1529.0 1520.2 1538.9 1541.7 1547.9 1550.0 1548.1 1561.8 1569.3 1543.5 1524.3 1514.4 1491.8 1463.6 1441.2 1422.8 1435.4 1446.0 1463.5 1480.5 1500.3 Apparent Tmp(F): 38 8 -1 19 22 16 18 23 29 24 10 20 20 17 2 7 4 -5 0 12 23 PType: FROZEN LIQUID LIQUID SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW 1000mb GPH (m): 137 211 230 235 216 209 182 137 77 90 133 147 146 156 183 190 210 233 237 232 215 1000mb Temp ©: 9.2 -5.9 -9.6 -2.9 -1.1 -4.3 -4.1 0.2 2.5 1.1 -6.3 -2.1 -2.2 -3.6 -11.3 -6.2 -9.1 -14.2 -16.1 -8.1 -4.2 1000mb Dewpt©: 4.6 -11.4 -17.7 -19.8 -17.6 -15.3 -14.9 -0.4 2.3 0.5 -7.3 -4.3 -3.6 -4.6 -13.7 -11.2 -11.3 -16.4 -18.2 -14.4 -8.4 1000mb RH (%): 72 65 52 26 27 42 43 95 98 96 92 85 90 93 83 68 84 84 84 60 73 1000mb Dir: 319 7 25 33 34 29 22 160 153 329 344 337 317 276 310 289 312 345 302 277 218 1000mb Speed(kt): 10 11 14 10 8 6 4 10 6 9 6 8 6 6 4 15 7 6 1 5 2 1000mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 975mb GPH (m): 347 409 425 434 417 407 381 339 281 294 330 348 346 355 377 387 405 425 427 428 414 975mb Temp ©: 8.5 -7.3 -11.2 -5.3 -2.7 -5.7 -4.9 -1.3 1.3 -0.2 -6.9 -3.9 -3.3 -4.8 -12.3 -8.2 -10.5 -15.9 -17.7 -10.0 -5.8 975mb Dewpt©: 2.8 -12.9 -18.8 -20.8 -19.3 -16.5 -16.2 -1.8 1.0 -0.9 -8.6 -5.9 -5.6 -6.1 -15.0 -13.1 -13.5 -17.9 -19.5 -15.4 -9.4 975mb RH (%): 67 64 54 29 27 42 41 96 98 95 88 86 85 90 80 68 79 85 86 65 76 975mb Dir: 313 8 26 33 35 34 32 160 153 329 351 337 320 279 312 289 312 343 310 278 237 975mb Speed(kt): 18 20 22 14 13 11 7 14 7 11 9 10 10 11 8 19 14 9 2 6 3 975mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 950mb GPH (m): 561 611 624 637 622 611 585 546 490 501 533 552 551 559 575 588 605 620 621 627 617 950mb Temp ©: 6.8 -9.2 -13.1 -7.4 -4.4 -5.9 -5.2 -2.8 0.8 -1.7 -7.8 -6.0 -5.1 -6.3 -13.7 -10.2 -12.3 -17.7 -18.9 -12.1 -7.6 950mb Dewpt©: 1.2 -13.8 -19.4 -21.5 -20.7 -18.3 -16.3 -2.9 0.5 -2.3 -9.6 -7.0 -6.8 -7.2 -15.8 -14.4 -14.8 -18.6 -21.5 -16.0 -10.0 950mb RH (%): 67 69 60 32 27 37 42 99 98 96 88 92 88 93 84 72 82 93 80 73 83 950mb Dir: 311 10 27 34 39 56 105 158 152 330 354 337 319 290 313 289 311 334 319 280 249 950mb Speed(kt): 28 25 27 16 16 12 6 18 17 19 15 11 13 17 14 22 19 12 7 7 4 950mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.6 10.7 0.5 3.0 0.1 2.2 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 925mb GPH (m): 779 816 826 844 831 820 794 757 705 713 739 760 760 767 777 792 808 819 819 830 824 925mb Temp ©: 4.6 -11.2 -14.9 -9.4 -5.5 -3.5 -4.6 -3.3 1.8 -2.9 -9.5 -7.8 -7.0 -7.9 -14.8 -12.2 -14.2 -19.5 -19.5 -14.1 -9.3 925mb Dewpt©: 0.3 -14.5 -20.3 -22.0 -22.9 -19.9 -17.5 -3.4 1.6 -3.6 -10.4 -8.0 -7.3 -8.4 -16.4 -15.2 -15.7 -19.5 -23.4 -16.4 -10.8 925mb RH (%): 74 77 64 35 24 27 36 99 99 95 93 98 98 97 88 78 89 100 71 83 89 925mb Dir: 310 11 27 35 40 97 149 162 171 331 353 337 318 297 314 289 310 326 322 282 260 925mb Speed(kt): 30 27 31 18 16 9 14 25 27 24 20 12 13 21 23 24 21 15 14 8 6 925mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 73.2 26.5 16.3 12.7 50.6 15.9 9.9 0.0 0.0 2.1 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 900mb GPH (m): 1001 1026 1033 1055 1046 1037 1010 975 927 930 951 973 973 979 984 1001 1015 1022 1023 1038 1035 900mb Temp ©: 2.3 -13.1 -14.3 -11.1 -6.0 -1.9 -3.8 -1.2 3.1 -2.4 -8.6 -9.5 -8.4 -9.6 -15.6 -14.1 -16.2 -20.8 -18.8 -16.0 -10.0 900mb Dewpt©: -0.5 -16.0 -25.9 -23.2 -24.6 -18.3 -18.2 -1.4 3.0 -3.2 -10.5 -9.5 -8.9 -9.8 -18.4 -15.9 -16.9 -21.1 -26.9 -16.8 -12.4 900mb RH (%): 82 79 38 37 22 27 32 99 100 94 87 100 96 98 79 87 95 98 49 93 82 900mb Dir: 308 9 20 33 28 162 169 180 191 328 352 337 319 303 313 289 308 317 318 287 288 900mb Speed(kt): 32 28 34 19 13 6 22 36 32 23 24 15 15 24 30 25 22 19 21 10 11 900mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 54.0 45.5 16.2 8.7 91.9 80.8 12.9 0.0 0.4 6.7 20.7 0.0 1.6 0.0 850mb GPH (m): 1460 1463 1473 1497 1496 1493 1462 1433 1392 1385 1400 1418 1418 1418 1413 1431 1441 1445 1451 1469 1477 850mb Temp ©: -1.2 -9.6 -5.9 -4.6 -1.4 -0.4 -2.0 0.3 4.5 -1.2 -2.9 -5.6 -6.9 -12.6 -17.6 -18.0 -20.0 -19.3 -16.2 -13.5 -9.2 850mb Dewpt©: -3.0 -34.3 -42.9 -36.4 -14.2 -9.1 -4.4 0.3 4.5 -1.5 -12.4 -18.2 -16.4 -12.7 -23.9 -18.1 -20.2 -32.0 -37.2 -33.0 -10.5 850mb RH (%): 88 12 4 7 37 52 83 100 100 98 48 37 47 100 58 99 98 33 15 18 91 850mb Dir: 297 333 341 343 310 243 215 200 221 304 326 318 312 299 307 290 304 316 308 305 296 850mb Speed(kt): 42 31 36 24 15 17 29 46 43 16 26 22 25 27 36 28 24 27 33 29 26 850mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.8 164.2 103.6 73.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 51.9 0.0 51.7 32.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 800mb GPH (m): 1941 1934 1952 1978 1980 1978 1948 1922 1886 1870 1880 1893 1889 1878 1865 1881 1890 1896 1908 1931 1946 800mb Temp ©: -4.1 -6.0 -1.6 -1.0 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 2.4 3.4 -0.9 -3.4 -6.1 -9.2 -15.2 -19.2 -21.8 -20.4 -18.3 -15.2 -12.2 -8.9 800mb Dewpt©: -5.1 -45.2 -52.1 -14.0 -4.0 -2.2 -0.3 2.3 3.3 -1.7 -20.0 -20.2 -18.3 -15.6 -26.9 -21.9 -33.3 -38.5 -38.7 -24.0 -9.1 800mb RH (%): 93 3 1 37 79 85 99 99 99 94 27 32 48 97 51 99 32 16 12 37 99 800mb Dir: 297 313 316 313 296 264 237 220 237 272 306 299 302 285 300 290 307 311 308 311 292 800mb Speed(kt): 51 44 48 39 28 30 37 62 49 21 30 26 28 32 45 31 35 35 43 43 40 800mb CLMx(g/kg) 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 213.0 108.8 77.4 38.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.5 0.0 129.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 750mb GPH (m): 2449 2441 2466 2493 2496 2495 2463 2443 2408 2383 2388 2397 2385 2365 2344 2353 2367 2378 2396 2425 2446 750mb Temp ©: -5.0 -4.4 -1.7 -2.0 -1.3 -1.0 -1.8 0.8 1.2 -3.2 -5.9 -7.1 -12.3 -16.2 -20.3 -24.8 -20.6 -18.6 -15.4 -12.7 -9.3 750mb Dewpt©: -6.9 -49.9 -28.4 -6.1 -2.2 -3.8 -4.6 0.8 1.1 -7.6 -27.6 -26.2 -19.4 -22.3 -33.4 -28.6 -41.9 -41.8 -37.3 -15.4 -9.5 750mb RH (%): 87 2 11 73 94 81 81 100 99 71 17 21 56 60 31 71 14 12 14 80 99 750mb Dir: 297 308 311 304 292 272 236 234 244 268 298 287 294 274 295 293 305 305 307 307 294 750mb Speed(kt): 62 59 60 51 39 40 39 69 52 29 35 35 34 47 55 41 43 44 51 59 52 750mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 28.0 125.2 119.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 61.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 4.7 700mb GPH (m): 2989 2983 3012 3039 3044 3043 3010 2995 2961 2929 2925 2932 2910 2882 2854 2854 2877 2891 2915 2949 2977 700mb Temp ©: -8.1 -5.1 -4.0 -4.6 -3.5 -3.9 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 -3.6 -8.8 -9.0 -14.5 -18.8 -20.8 -25.3 -21.1 -19.7 -17.1 -14.6 -11.9 700mb Dewpt©: -8.4 -48.2 -14.7 -5.8 -4.0 -9.6 -4.7 -2.5 -1.3 -23.4 -35.6 -33.7 -25.2 -27.4 -41.7 -46.3 -44.3 -43.6 -38.1 -15.6 -12.0 700mb RH (%): 97 2 44 91 96 64 93 100 100 20 10 12 41 47 14 13 11 11 15 92 99 700mb Dir: 297 307 312 303 289 270 237 245 248 269 292 279 286 273 288 295 303 302 304 302 295 700mb Speed(kt): 73 70 69 56 50 45 36 67 54 44 48 45 39 56 60 57 51 52 58 69 59 700mb CLMx(g/kg) 21.6 0.0 0.0 14.1 126.3 1.3 7.8 88.0 166.8 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9 217.2 650mb GPH (m): 3563 3562 3593 3620 3627 3624 3593 3580 3550 3512 3495 3502 3469 3431 3400 3391 3423 3439 3468 3509 3543 650mb Temp ©: -9.6 -7.7 -7.4 -7.2 -7.1 -7.4 -6.3 -5.7 -4.2 -5.4 -11.3 -12.4 -16.9 -20.9 -22.4 -26.2 -22.1 -21.3 -19.3 -15.8 -13.2 650mb Dewpt©: -17.4 -28.7 -13.1 -8.8 -7.4 -14.8 -6.5 -5.7 -4.2 -34.7 -42.3 -34.4 -26.5 -40.0 -44.0 -51.6 -43.9 -46.0 -42.1 -21.9 -14.1 650mb RH (%): 53 17 64 88 98 56 98 100 100 8 6 15 44 17 13 8 13 10 12 60 93 650mb Dir: 302 308 310 303 288 267 248 256 253 262 285 268 272 270 283 296 302 302 304 300 297 650mb Speed(kt): 79 77 73 60 56 49 38 64 56 60 59 50 46 58 64 68 60 58 64 72 67 650mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 145.5 1.4 35.6 96.9 179.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 100.3 600mb GPH (m): 4179 4180 4212 4241 4248 4243 4217 4204 4177 4136 4106 4108 4066 4020 3985 3969 4009 4026 4061 4112 4152 600mb Temp ©: -11.3 -10.8 -11.1 -9.7 -9.9 -10.8 -9.1 -8.4 -7.6 -8.6 -14.2 -16.5 -20.0 -23.4 -25.6 -26.1 -24.2 -23.7 -20.8 -15.6 -13.9 600mb Dewpt©: -24.2 -21.7 -15.5 -13.3 -13.7 -19.3 -9.4 -8.5 -8.3 -33.6 -38.2 -30.7 -22.7 -50.9 -43.4 -52.7 -45.3 -49.1 -44.3 -33.1 -17.6 600mb RH (%): 34 41 70 75 74 50 97 99 95 12 12 29 80 7 18 7 13 9 11 22 74 600mb Dir: 308 308 308 302 285 268 254 262 258 257 276 259 263 267 281 295 300 303 305 303 299 600mb Speed(kt): 83 79 77 67 59 52 43 64 59 72 70 55 53 59 70 83 66 64 72 75 71 600mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1 17.1 149.8 228.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 550mb GPH (m): 4842 4844 4876 4909 4916 4908 4886 4876 4849 4804 4761 4757 4706 4651 4610 4598 4639 4659 4701 4767 4809 550mb Temp ©: -15.2 -14.5 -14.1 -12.9 -12.4 -13.7 -12.6 -11.4 -11.9 -13.1 -17.6 -20.5 -23.6 -27.4 -30.0 -27.3 -27.2 -25.9 -22.7 -17.6 -17.1 550mb Dewpt©: -21.6 -22.0 -19.7 -18.1 -23.5 -23.9 -12.8 -11.5 -13.4 -32.1 -34.6 -26.1 -24.4 -53.3 -44.3 -51.3 -52.0 -53.2 -42.4 -34.4 -22.8 550mb RH (%): 59 53 63 65 40 43 99 99 88 19 22 61 94 7 25 9 8 7 16 23 62 550mb Dir: 308 307 306 299 285 272 260 259 259 253 264 257 257 264 280 294 298 303 304 307 298 550mb Speed(kt): 88 82 81 72 62 56 47 64 64 79 83 67 61 61 76 94 74 74 82 83 75 550mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.0 268.3 325.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 500mb GPH (m): 5556 5560 5595 5630 5638 5628 5608 5602 5571 5523 5469 5457 5396 5330 5282 5279 5322 5346 5396 5474 5518 500mb Temp ©: -19.8 -19.2 -17.5 -16.9 -16.6 -16.7 -16.6 -15.6 -17.6 -18.6 -21.1 -24.3 -28.3 -31.9 -34.3 -30.4 -29.2 -27.9 -26.0 -21.8 -21.4 500mb Dewpt©: -25.1 -24.5 -24.7 -22.3 -27.7 -32.5 -16.7 -15.7 -18.7 -29.3 -38.0 -25.2 -28.7 -56.7 -49.1 -54.9 -55.1 -51.0 -41.6 -31.5 -24.9 500mb RH (%): 63 63 54 63 38 25 99 99 91 39 21 92 97 8 22 8 7 10 23 42 73 500mb Dir: 304 305 302 295 287 275 268 257 257 251 258 257 250 263 279 291 296 300 303 306 296 500mb Speed(kt): 90 89 86 79 64 59 57 66 68 84 96 87 73 65 83 100 90 89 89 90 81 500mb CLMx(g/kg) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 106.9 414.4 362.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 52.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Thank you Jax, much more pleasing to the eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GEFS snow mean: I'll still very much take that. I like to monitor CHA for signs of WAA up the valley, i'm still safely in the same ball park as TYS, but i'm on the same latitude roughly of Maryville, just west in a straight line from Maryville about 20 miles as the crow flies, about 13 miles south of I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Joe Lundberg his last blogs has always said the GFS was wrong with the trough axis: My worry is that the mean trough axis may be too far west to allow this system to be squashed to the extent the models said on the 0z runs. And as we saw with a storm over a week ago, don't be shocked if the model trend goes right back the other way as it begins to see things more clearly. And areas that right now seem high and dry may not be so dry in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Joe Lundberg his last blogs has always said the GFS was wrong with the trough axis: My worry is that the mean trough axis may be too far west to allow this system to be squashed to the extent the models said on the 0z runs. And as we saw with a storm over a week ago, don't be shocked if the model trend goes right back the other way as it begins to see things more clearly. And areas that right now seem high and dry may not be so dry in the end. Does he mean this is a wobble and to expect it to wobble back south, or does he mean it will wobble further north for the Ohio Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.