ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z NAM snow: Ouch yeah hope that much sleet doesn't mix in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well the NAM is related to the SREF so it's not surprising that the two models are picking up on similar things. If the GFS also shows this, then perhaps all of the models are picking up on something in the sampled data. Just have to watch it and take what comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jan 2010 also had mixing issues for everyone south of 40. It was still a severe winter storm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing those thermals... I certainly can't buy that unless there is agreement among other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I can't see the track. If it wobbles north there will be mixing issues probably for the southern valley especially. If it wobbles south the southern valley is the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 dont believe the text of the verticals,the skew t shows a warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hi-res 0z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z RGEM is also further north with the SLP. It does look stronger and wetter. This is at 48 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ugly trend. Let's see if the GFS follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z RGEM is also further north with the SLP. It does look stronger and wetter. This is at 48 hours... rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png Wow Windspeed that is really amped! Look how far north the low is! I guess that means the GGEM will be more amped as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I should have chunked a FWIW in there since the shift north on the RGEM wasn't entirely unexpected. Really, it's the 0z globals that I am anxious to see. Then we'll see what those 6z Mesos do in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 One has to wonder where this stops? Some trend north is expected but I hope this isn't a case of SREF leading the way. I don't even feel comfortable in TRI although most of the slight shifting north actually helped us out an inch or two. Another 24 hours of model runs and I doubt they start shifting south again so that would leave me with the uneasy trend of what's happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Our local met here in Huntsville has basically just said we aren't getting squat. I'm officially done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GFS looking good, whew. In terms of snow output that is. Temps are warmer though, so southern areas might have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GFS looking good, whew. What frame have you made it to? I'm only out to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GFS 42 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GFS clown: Have to imagine some of that in the south is a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GFS clown: Have to imagine some of that in the south is a mix. Stove is that blue dot lollipop in east tn the warm nose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 I wonder if the overriding warm intrusion is actually producing sleet in the higher elevations of the Smokies? Temperatures at 54 hours were in the 20s in the lower elevations of the valley. I'd imagine that would not be sleet. lol.....hence that weird clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Stove is that blue dot lollipop in east tn the warm nose? It's a QPF hole, for some reason the heavier precip ducks that area. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z GFS clown: Have to imagine some of that in the south is a mix. Stove is that blue dot lollipop in east tn the warm nose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 looks good,verticals are colder than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Downsloping, not a warmnose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SNOW.png Can you post CHA and TYS please Jax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Downsloping, not a warmnose. You are correctamundo! You can clearly see it here on the western side of the Blue Ridge. The valley, on the other hand, gets crushed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Can you post CHA and TYS please Jax? Gimme a coup.i'll post verts and qpfs 4u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 A 10:1 map is not appropriate for anybody south of I-40 based on that run. A lot of that is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0Z GFS higher resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's a QPF hole, for some reason the heavier precip ducks that area. Weird. Downsloping...we know it well. 100% that is what it is. Probab not that extreme. Was on 18z as well. But, all models cut totals close to the Apps. Low is jumping to the coast. Want the slp to curve slightly as it rounds the base of the Apps. I think it will. Bugger is going to be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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