dwagner88 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ^ What an amazing map. I hope it verifies just like that. Nobody misses out in the whole state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Check it out, probability of greater than 6 inches of snow according to the 12z Euro EPS: Over 3 inches: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Check it out, probability of greater than 6 inches of snow according to the 12z Euro EPS: Over 3 inches: I like those kind of odds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 For the record, 18z GEFS snow mean: If that verifies, that's gotta be a once a generation type storm to plaster the entire state from west to east like that. Reminiscent of '88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 21z SREF is coming in considerably north of its previous run. KY would have the bulk of the snow if it verifies with temp issues south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 21z SREF is coming in considerably north of its previous run. KY would have the bulk of the snow if it verifies with temp issues south. American models appear to be really struggling at the moment. Not sure I by that temp issues occur south. Going to be bitterly cold. Could be ice. But really, going to be tough to get something not frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 American models appear to be really struggling at the moment. Not sure I by that temp issues occur south. Going to be bitterly cold. Could be ice. But really, going to be tough to get something not frozen. I tend to agree, but the SREF p-type maps are showing snow to rain to snow even up into KY. It'll be interesting to see the 0z runs and whether this is an anomaly or the beginning of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I tend to agree, but the SREF p-type maps are showing snow to rain to snow even up into KY. It'll be interesting to see the 0z runs and whether this is an anomaly or the beginning of a trend. IMO, it is an error. Any slp can only track so far into that cold. However, some of the great winter storms have always had a warm nose here. It could happen. But man, who really knows w/ the models this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Stove how accurate is the SREF...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 if that verified this would be the cruelest winter I've ever experienced. I'd probably quit following winter weather if this misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think the p-type maps are flat out wrong based on where that 850 freezing line set up. Here's how the clown turned out: I'm not concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 That 21z SREF run wanted to phase the SLP with the arctic vortex low over the Great Lakes. Not ruling that out but it's definitely an outlier at the moment. I don't know about that full phase solution, but we'll have to watch for a trend where the SLP is further north into the Apps on the 0z globals. You'd figure this close to the event something would throw a curveball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 God the cliff diving is going to be unreal if this slips away at the last minute. SREF mean WAY down here. Below warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So far 0z Nam looks good through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So far 0z Nam looks good through 36. It's not the mess that the SREF was but it's a tad north. Looks like it starts as sleet south of 40. Edit: Not looking good, temp issues going to cut down the snow totals significantly. Edit2: Ok looking much better by hour 45, we'll have a decent clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's some heavy snow at hr 39 in Nashville per the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 nam is going nuts,it's still going and .79 qpfs for bna,ratios 12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's not the mess that the SREF was but it's a tad north. Looks like it starts as sleet south of 40. We new the trend north would be there. The trend south has stopped for sure. At this late stage, I am not sure how much more it can move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The 0z NAM is money, folks. Crazy amounts of qpf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hows TRI, at work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 So far 0z Nam looks good through 36. yep NAM is in pretty good consistency from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .89 qpfs,not sure how much,might go back to 10:1 for a time as a warm nose is coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWRAndy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Seems to be mostly TN natives in here. I grew up in Nashville and Memphis. How does this system look for Muscle Shoals, Alabama? We are right on the MS, AL, TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hows TRI, at work? QPF is .75 to 1.00. Should all be frozen unless I am misreading something. Probably like 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hour 39 p-type radar on the 0z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 i'll post text off the time for everyone,looks like some mixing just looking at the reflection for the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hour 39 p-type radar on the 0z NAM: Just looked at the verticals,its all snow BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just looked at the verticals,its all snow BNA Well that's good to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 ^trends not good. Not good at all down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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