ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As much as I can't stand it.... The Weather Channel named our storm. Octavia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seeing a few UKIE comments that it is a little south (50 miles). The map I saw would likely have provided a TN crush job. Hate the snow maps don't come out for a while. So it's likely the GGEM/GFS vs the UKMET/NAM so far. Please let the EURO hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GGEM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seeing a few UKIE comments that it is a little south (50 miles). The map I saw would likely have provided a TN crush job. Hate the snow maps don't come out for a while. So it's likely the GGEM/GFS vs the UKMET/NAM so far. Please let the EURO hold serve. I can't remember when tracking models for a winter storm for our area has been as much fun and as much of a roller coaster ride as has been the last 48 hours. Each run is like being at the top of the highest hill on a roller coaster waiting for it to drop you off the precipice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The NAM has a scary amount of FZRA here after the snow. Over half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What's with the GGEM's major taper toward NE TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z GEFS mean snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't have access to the Euro, but reading in the SE board, sounds like its stronger further north so that Snow is all TN line north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12z Euro a bit north, no temp issues for us that I see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Dr. Yes is in and yes Shawn there is a sharp cutoff south of TN: Edit: Dang it stovepipe you beat me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Dr. Yes is in and yes Shawn there is a sharp cutoff south of TN: Edit: Dang it stovepipe you beat me lol I'll take it! Though it kinda sucks for my friends down in Chatt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ratios would likely be higher than the clown shows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ratios would likely be higher than the clown shows too. yeah for most until you get down near Chatt, 15:1 at least is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 yeah for most until you get down near Chatt, 15:1 at least is safe. Can't wait to read MRX AFD soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro is another beauty. Probably unjustified, but I still worry about a valley warm nose with a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro is another beauty. Probably unjustified, but I still worry about a valley warm nose with a Miller A. The Ukmet snow map from 12z will also be a cotton candy paint bomb IMO when it comes out, and will probably match the European very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There will be the wobbles on the models but the I-40 corridor seems to be in the best spot, the north or south wobbles still seem to place it in the best totals either way. For some, as always, a 50 mile shift will mean lesser totals from lack of qpf, or from mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 There will be the wobbles on the models but the I-40 corridor seems to be in the best spot, the north or south wobbles still seem to place it in the best totals either way. For some, as always, a 50 mile shift will mean lesser totals from lack of qpf, or from mixing issues. Yes, I'm getting more and more confident in significant snows for the I-40 corridor, however, minor differences in track at this point is key for who gets the heaviest amounts. Big difference in a spread of 4-6" and 8-12" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There will be the wobbles on the models but the I-40 corridor seems to be in the best spot, the north or south wobbles still seem to place it in the best totals either way. For some, as always, a 50 mile shift will mean lesser totals from lack of qpf, or from mixing issues. Cut model snow totals in half and the 40 corridor still gets an awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The SREF plumes are just astounding to watch rise with each output, for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here are the SREF plume means: TRI 9.05 TYS 9.60 CSV 9.61 BNA 8.91 CHA 4.69 At a quick glance everyone seemed to have some members up to 15" including CHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here are the SREF plume means: TRI 9.05 TYS 9.60 CSV 9.61 BNA 8.91 CHA 4.69 At a quick glance everyone seemed to have some members up to 15" including CHA Thanks for posting that! That's seems like 2-3 inches higher at KTRI than the earlier run Shawn posted. I'll take the Euro/SREF for $1000 Alex Trebek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yes, that latest SREF just absolutely clobbers the I-40 corridor across the entire state of Tennessee. If this verifies, it will be forever known as the I-40 Express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For last year's storm the Euro, SREF, and RGEM told the story during this time period. I'm all about that combo for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks for posting that! That's seems like 2-3 inches higher at KTRI than the earlier run Shawn posted. I'll take the Euro/SREF for $1000 Alex Trebek. No prob! Yeah, looking like this is trending well for most of the valley. I would cash out now in a heartbeat if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Staggering amount of consistency on the Ukie, here's latest 12z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yahtzee is probably not quite as bad when you are just 48 hours out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yahtzee is probably not quite as bad when you are just 48 hours out.... well now I'm getting nervous. Looks like im slowly starting to trend out of the good stuff. Just have to hope things trend slightly cooler for my area I suppose, or just plain end up verifying colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro ensemble mean snow looks like the op, so does control. What is even more impressive is how it continues to add snow going forward through the 10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Where is nrgjeff anyways? He always provides the best, accurate information and is as well grounded as any MET on these boards. I would love to hear his thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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