DaculaWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think it's something like that. 36-48 for watches and 24-36 for warnings. Beyond 48, conservatism reigns supreme, and rightfully so. It varies by office, here's what it is for FFC http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spotter_criteria.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It varies by office, here's what it is for FFC http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spotter_criteria.php I knew there had to be a SOP thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It varies by office, here's what it is for FFC http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spotter_criteria.php Thanks Steve! I knew it was arbitrary, depending on the various offices. There is certainly an amount component. I didn't mean to gloss over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Which one of y'all Nashville guys ran the euro last night? EuroWx thinks 38" of snow falls there by Saturday Evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Which one of y'all Nashville guys ran the euro last night? EuroWx thinks 38" of snow falls there by Saturday Evening. we are making up for lost time..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 the control shows 18+ for the SE Valley EDIT: 240 HRS OUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So I missed the last couple model runs and just getting caught up this morning... All I can say is wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12Z NAM out to 84. Solid 4-8 inches the whole state, with Plateau and east 8-10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 While the NAM precip is obviously overdone (when I still lived in N.C. I remember a NAM QPF forecast being overdone by a factor of 3 for one storm), the most interesting thing to me is that it still has high pressure over N. England at 84 hours with north winds over N.C. If that's accurately depicted .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 While the NAM precip is obviously overdone (when I still lived in N.C. I remember a NAM QPF forecast being overdone by a factor of 3 for one storm), the most interesting thing to me is that it still has high pressure over N. England at 84 hours with north winds over N.C. If that's accurately depicted .... I would agree with overdone here too if Euro, and GFS weren't as close to what the NAM is projecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Guys, go check out the GEFS loop Wow posted in the SE forum. Great googly moogly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here is the 6z and 12z NAM side by side for comparison. 6z on top/12z on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here is the 6z and 12z NAM side by side for comparison. 6z on top/12z on bottom Yeah almost identical with exception of GA, SC, and NC. Our region its consistent, what I find interesting it looks like the NAM is slowly moving to the GFS in scenario of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Guys, go check out the GEFS loop Wow posted in the SE forum. Great googly moogly. You simply could not ask for a better look from a statewide Tennessee perspective. It could be years before we see anything like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 By the way, it should be noted that it is still snowing across the entire state.....lightly, at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wonder if any of that is ice/sleet in Georgia/SC..Waiting game in my neck of the woods..Hopefully the trends stay the same but i need a little N/W shift.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You simply could not ask for a better look from a statewide Tennessee perspective. It could be years before we see anything like that again. Years, or maybe next weekend. lol. J/K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Years, or maybe next weekend. lol. J/K Ha! You know I cannot remember how far back I have to go to recall a time when we had snow on the ground, and more snow being added to it from another storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wonder if any of that is ice/sleet in Georgia/SC..Waiting game in my neck of the woods..Hopefully the trends stay the same but i need a little N/W shift.. I think you all will do ok especially if you are in higher terrain area of SE KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wonder if any of that is ice/sleet in Georgia/SC..Waiting game in my neck of the woods..Hopefully the trends stay the same but i need a little N/W shift.. I would say some of that is sleet/ice. WeatherBell maps includes all frozen precip types as snow. I'm sure other sites do about the same thing with a few tweaks to the algorithm here or there. I would rather be needing a NW shift instead of a SE one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Latest SREF plumes out to 0Z Wednesday: Mem - Mean = 5" - Max 11" BNA - Mean = 7" - Max 19" CSV - Mean = 11" - Max 21" CHA - Mean = 6" - Max 15" TYS - Mean = 6.5" - Max 14" TRI - Mean = 5.5" - Max 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 OHX Winter Storm Watch up: ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND A WINTER STORM WATCHFOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OFMIDDLE TENNESSEE...TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-150300-/O.NEW.KOHX.WC.Y.0002.150215T0900Z-150215T1500Z//O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0001.150216T0000Z-150217T0600Z/STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI1003 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILLADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY. AWINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM WATCHIS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.* TIMING...BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING...SNOWACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHERAMOUNTS POSSIBLE.* WIND CHILL VALUES...FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.* MAIN IMPACT...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS MAY LEAD TO FROSTBITE ONUNPROTECTED SKIN. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVELCONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.* OTHER IMPACTS...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAINMAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WESTOF INTERSTATE 65 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY. CHANCES FORLIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEARTHE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12Z GFS much drier solution without extended backside low snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 12Z GFS much drier solution without extended backside low snows... Yeah, it was pretty "meh" compared to what we have been looking at. Hoping the same tendency to lose the system in the 3-5 is at play here, but if be lying if I said it didn't give me pause this close to the event. That said, till the GEFS, GGEM. EURO, and UKMET all come in with less I would pretty much toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For anyone concerned after seeing the 12z GFS. Robert (WxSouth) says don't. The GFS lost the Baja low completely evidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, it was pretty "meh" compared to what we have been looking at. Hoping the same tendency to lose the system in the 3-5 is at play here, but if be lying if I said it didn't give me pause this close to the event. That said, till the GEFS, GGEM. EURO, and UKMET all come in with less I would pretty much toss it. Yep came in as just a slider... Even with just a slider we all get nice snows across the entire region 3-6 totals seem reasonable for most everyone, not a bad storm even as a slider for a pretty terrible winter. I guess beggers can't be choosers, but I do see MRX has a very difficult forecast. If it turns the corner and cranks then totals go way up for the eastern 2/3 of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep, Robert is on board with a fairly major event, with the storm picking up the SW low really well. He has some info on his Facebook page. I'm ready for some winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep, Robert is on board with a fairly major event, with the storm picking up the SW low really well. He has some info on his Facebook page. I'm ready for some winter!! Yes, I believe inlast night's post he mentioned "Tennesse" and " hammered" in the same sentence. North AL should do okay with 2-4 and maybe some ice (yuk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yep, Robert is on board with a fairly major event, with the storm picking up the SW low really well. He has some info on his Facebook page. I'm ready for some winter!! I would love to see it grab the baja low and crank out with rapid deepening up through the carolinas. Thats what I think the NAM was just starting to grab on to at the end of its run. There is talk that until we get nearly on top of the storm we won't know as sampling of the baja area is next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 After getting caught up with the past 12 hours worth of posts, all I can say is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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