Freezing Fog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No kidding!!! # burried...totally missed that. The 0z Euro and GFS are showing multiple events now. Okay... So now I have to buy two sleds maybe? Joking. The way it sounded last Saturday on americanwx winter was over for the SE and Tennessee Valley. Now were talking an extended event. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This may not get worked out until 48 hrs out from the storm. JB with something to think about. 1234, why the difference between the lollipops and meteogram? Carvers, I'm not really sure. I just figured the snow output from the meteogram would be higher. The clown map looked to be more around 8" to me when I first looked at the clown but on closer inspection that seems about right. .6 QPF is what the meteograms had from the 0z GFS but the snow accumulation is only 4-5 inches depending on which site you look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You guys need to go back and look at a few more days on the Euro. I know it's way out but you don't get model runs like that one often. yeah,the would be historical..3"qpf snow for Nashville,i'm in..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Okay... So now I have to buy two sleds maybe? Joking. The way it sounded last Saturday on americanwx winter was over for the SE and Tennessee Valley. Now were talking an extended event. Just saying... Nah, man. LOL. We are pretty level on this board. Now, next door...the neighbors get a little loud, but we like them too. I been talking climo for a couple of weeks and telling folks that I hate Ninos. They always show-up late and it's feast or famine. Spring. Nino. Climo. Mentioned them all as a shake-up to the pattern. I have had my moments of doubt, and still do. But the 0z GFS and 0z Euro do show another event next weekend. If it keeps up I will post a few thoughts in the Fab Feb thread to keep this event and that potential one separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 yeah,the would be historical..3"qpf snow for Nashville,i'm in..lol Jax, I think it's almost a lock that you break the 4 year snow drought no matter which wave is emphasized. You've hung in tough over the last few years. I think the highest totals will be between Nashville and Crossville where y'all will get the stronger part of the 1st wave before it weakens to the east. If the second wave does form then y'all would get bonus snow on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 dont think ive ever seen a clown map of the euro showing 30" in Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 dont think ive ever seen a clown map of the euro showing 30" in Tn Well, heck...if you have one post it!!!!!!!!! LOL. Come on, man. 2:30 in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thank you. OK, that's nuts!!! Better take that down and send it to me by PM or we get in hot water. 30". Mercy. I am assuming that is over about ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think we all need to go to bed lol. Good one Jax! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Taken off,how wild was that..lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Taken off,how wild was that..lmao I thought you was just joking about the 30 inches but I just went and looked at the Euro and it does have around 30 inches and that is only out to hour 198. I'm definitely saving that clown. That was the greatest clown of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I thought you was just joking about the 30 inches but I just went and looked at the Euro and it does have around 30 inches and that is only out to hour 198. I'm definitely saving that clown. That was the greatest clown of all time. canwe get some consistency now with 30 inches..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Some feedback error,something that dynamical i'd expect to see k-index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well I hate that I missed epic clown 2015. The sheer number of days we're going to see with flakes in the air for the next week is going to be awesome. It should feature snow in the air for some part of every day for almost the next 7 24 hour periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 06z NAM is trying to run the Apps and spreads rain/mix into the Eastern Valley areas with a warm nose into SW VA. The overall totals are higher than they were at 00z for Tennessee, but the epic snowing that was happening in the N Gulf coast states is much reduced from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 06z GFS shifted a bit south and east that run, but still managed to drop a big hammer across the region. The snow around Memphis down into Mississippi may be more a mix of precip types. The exact line of the heaviest snow will waffle around with each model run. But the important take away is the major consistency of all model suites showing the storm and the fact that it provides widespread moderate to heavy wintery precip for essentially the entire Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like the 6z GFS went back to a little more moisture with the first wave. More Euro like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Possible Jan 88 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z GEFS mean qpf is plentiful. 6z GEFS mean snowfall is plentiful. 0z EURO snowfall map is beautiful. I got almost ZERO sleep, but who is ready to roll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clown map for the 6z NAM? Dewpoints? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z GEFS mean qpf is plentiful. image.jpg 6z GEFS mean snowfall is plentiful. image.jpg 0z EURO snowfall map is beautiful. image.jpg I got almost ZERO sleep, but who is ready to roll? So, any guesses when Nashville will issue a Winter Storm Watch, the Euro especially has been unwavering in a good 6" snow for nearly the length of TN for the last seems like 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 After seeing the 0z Euro clown, I'm wide awake this morning. No need for coffee today! The main concern I have at the moment is the occasional warm nose the GFS in particular paints sneaking through the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 6z. NAM is close to a very significant event....might be wrong, but it has been steadfast in a very strong Miller A. Even has the war nose that most bruisers have. Will be interesting to see if other models follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z GEFS mean qpf is plentiful. 6z GEFS mean snowfall is plentiful. 0z EURO snowfall map is beautiful. I got almost ZERO sleep, but who is ready to roll? Works of art. GEFS really hammers NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 6z. NAM is close to a very significant event....might be wrong, but it has been steadfast in a very strong Miller A. Even has the war nose that most bruisers have. Will be interesting to see if other models follow suit. Can you post a map? What does it look like for north of Nashville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Carvers, want to shoot me your cell number via PM? It's a LOT easier for me to text than post. If not, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So, any guesses when Nashville will issue a Winter Storm Watch, the Euro especially has been unwavering in a good 6" snow for nearly the length of TN for the last seems like 48 hours. I am sure they want to see models converge around which piece of energy to key on. Should be better consensus today (for better or worse). If it's still there today, they will have no choice but to issue in their afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 6z. NAM is close to a very significant event....might be wrong, but it has been steadfast in a very strong Miller A. Even has the war nose that most bruisers have. Will be interesting to see if other models follow suit. It definitely has a warm nose, all the way to BNA and all of east TN. But, it's the LR NAM, so.......lol. There will probably be some pretty crazy clown maps from the NAM at some point today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I am sure they want to see models converge around which piece of energy to key on. Should be better consensus today (for better or worse). If it's still there today, they will have no choice but to issue in their afternoon package. That was what I was thinking too; looks like Memphis already has one hoisted; is the general rule of thumb that it is to be up about 36 hours before an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That was what I was thinking too; looks like Memphis already has one hoisted; is the general rule of thumb that it is to be up about 36 hours before an event? I think it's something like that. 36-48 for watches and 24-36 for warnings. Beyond 48, conservatism reigns supreme, and rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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