Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Interesting that NWS and local mets are mentioning HEAVY SLEET as opposed to heavy ice when the RAP and HRRR are showing much more freezing rain on their p-types. Just shows that humans have better insights than computer models I guess. We'll see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For TRI, all the mets kept snow in the upper tier of east Tennessee, mix in the central portions, but none had rain at any point. Hopefully there right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For TRI, all the mets kept snow in the upper tier of east Tennessee, mix in the central portions, but none had rain at any point. Hopefully there right. Hopefully the low dew points help achieve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well the GFS has pretty much locked in it's solution, Still looks like the northern tier of TN counties into KY see heavy snow on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hopefully the low dew points help achieve that. It was interesting because they had the warm nose but it was going directly northeast into the the side of the apps rather then expanding, was screwing places like greene county, but it was narrow and stopped short of Washington county tn. It even looked ok back towards Morristown...but I suppose it was an in house model so who knows. A lot of today's maps were showing that solution as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 All the models are within a 40 mile or so stripe with it. But for most of us, we live in the 40 mile north or south battle zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It seems like the RAP and HRRR have trended a bit cooler with the latest runs, still a mess mind you, but historically they've been hit or miss in their farther range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 May be of little consequence, but locations in MO and AR (Poplar Bluff, Little Rock) that were progged for SN/IP are starting off with ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 May be of little consequence, but locations in MO and AR (Poplar Bluff, Little Rock) that were progged for SN/IP are starting off with ZR. Their NWS office statement from a few minutes ago said that their forecast was on track, that their northern ares would switch to heavy snow. We'll see if it occurs. Everyone south of I-64 may get warm nosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Their NWS office statement from a few minutes ago said that their forecast was on track, that their northern ares would switch to heavy snow. We'll see if it occurs. Everyone south of I-64 may get warm nosed. what a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm assuming this map is right. Freezing rain already into Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not that it matters at this point, but 0z Euro is south a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The Euro looked better to me especially with the warm nose. I traced out the 32 degree line on the Euro on the 2 frames where QPF is the most (hours 18 & 24). By hour 30 the precip is exiting and the freezing line has pushed east of the mountains. 32 degree line doesn't look to make it to Knoxville but the Euro runs in intervals of 6 hours and not 3 hours so it is hard to tell what happens around hour 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think I get a solid snowfall on the GFS, Euro, RGEM, and GGEM. With the NAM being the least for me, around 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 John you'll be pouring quarters I'm sure buddy. Ok I'm out, gotta rest up for the sledding tomorrow. Good discussion tonight, hope we can salvage a good winter storm for most. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think the problem we are having has to do with the CAD wedge east of the mountains. The low pressure doesn't want to push directly into the CAD. The warm nose will have a hard time penetrating the CAD. So it has to go somewhere. The low pressure and associated warm air aloft wants to take the path of least resistant. That happens to be the Valley since the low pressure is so far north over Alabama (thanks to the 500mb vort). The other path of least resistance would be south of the CAD but upper levels doesn't support a southern slider. You can see the isobars stretching/pointing northeast up through the Valley on the Euro map I just posted. While the isobars in the NC/SC CAD regions are pointing southwestward. The low is trying to come up west of the Apps but at the last second doesn't. The Appalachian/Smokey mountains are not helping at all in this situation. They are acting like a brick wall and funneling the warm nose straight at us. If those mountains were not there I fell like the warm air could be distributed more evenly to the east (then CAD would never be an issue for folks out east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think I get a solid snowfall on the GFS, Euro, RGEM, and GGEM. With the NAM being the least for me, around 4-5 inches. I think you are in solid position as always John. You are in the best spot out of anyone. I'm thinking you could stay all snow with maybe some sleet mixed in. I'll say 8-10 for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm hoping that I'm in a good spot here in Bowling Green. I drove 300 miles to see hopefully the biggest snowfall in over 20 years ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Bowling Green looks to do very very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Bowling Green looks to do very very well. I'm from Georgia and haven't seen more than 4" of snow on the ground since 1993. And I've NEVER seen more than 10" ( saw 10" in 1993). Maybe we get lucky and get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm from Georgia and haven't seen more than 4" of snow on the ground since 1993. And I've NEVER seen more than 10" ( saw 10" in 1993). Maybe we get lucky and get a foot. I wouldn't move. I think it's good that you moved north some. 3z RAP is pushing a foot by 18z Monday. Here is the meteogram for Bowling Green (KBWG) including some 0z models(NAM/RAP/GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm from Georgia and haven't seen more than 4" of snow on the ground since 1993. And I've NEVER seen more than 10" ( saw 10" in 1993). Maybe we get lucky and get a foot. Meaningful precip should make it to you within the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Jax if your up its knocking on your door! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z HI-RES NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Jax if your up its knocking on your door! Dry air is gonna rob us at the start,not overly impressed looking at the HRRR,more ice looking than sn.East of us might do well,looks like a d-band for them all snow if the NAM is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Dry air is gonna rob us at the start,not overly impressed looking at the HRRR,more ice looking than sn.East of us might do well,looks like a d-band for them all snow if the NAM is right Lots of sleet here north of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SRN MO/SRN IL/SRN INDIANA/WRN AND CENTRAL KY/WRN AND MIDDLE TN/AR/NRN MS/NWRN AL CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 160857Z - 161500Z SUMMARY...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION -- INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MO/SRN IL/SRN INDIANA AND KY...MIXED PHASES ACROSS NRN AR/FAR SERN MO AND PARTS OF NRN TN...AND MAINLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN AR/NRN MS/NWRN AL AND INTO SRN TN -- WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SUBSTANTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES AT THE INTERSECT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED POLAR/ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLING SEWD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/NERN STATES...WHILE PRONOUNCED ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES ACROSS TX/THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COASTAL STATES. THIS BACKGROUND SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING DUE TO A BRIEF TRANSITIONAL STAGE OF THE ERN U.S. LONG-WAVE TROUGH...AS A STRONG/SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH/LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NERN U.S. INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A SECOND/REINFORCING TROUGH DIGS SEWD OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A BRIEFLY MORE ZONAL/WLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS MANIFESTING OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SERN CONUS. AS THE WRN TROUGHING DIGS SEWD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS YIELDING A ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION -- DRIVING THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND RESULTING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT THAT IS ONGOING. WHILE MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ATTM -- IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL -- WITH RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR -- WILL OCCUR FROM NERN OK ENEWD ACROSS NWRN AR AND SRN MO...AND EWD INTO SRN IL/WRN KY. WITH TIME...EWD EXPANSION OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...SPREADING INTO SRN INDIANA AND CENTRAL/WRN KY WITH TIME. FARTHER S -- A ZONE OF MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST -- MAINLY ACROSS NRN AR AND PARTS OF WRN TN. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...I.E. NWRN AR...AS THE EVOLVING SURFACE LOW -- AND PRECEDING ZONE OF STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION -- SHIFTS EWD OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH TIME. ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- INCLUDING PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AR/NRN MS/NWRN AL AND SRN TN...SUBSTANTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WHILE ERN PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA -- I.E. NERN MS/NWRN AL/SRN MIDDLE TN -- REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL WET-BULB COOLING IS LIKELY -- SUPPORTING THE EXPECTATION THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lots of sleet here north of town you are more N than us,not sure we see much depends on how fast the colder air gets in.KY/TN line looks to be close to the jack pot edit:good luck though,maybe someone in our area will cash in for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 you are more N than us,not sure we see much depends on how fast the colder air gets in.KY/TN line looks to be close to the jack pot edit:good luck though,maybe someone in our area will cash in for a change I saw something similar to this as a kid, cant recall what year it was, in the 1980's but they were calling for big snow and all we ever got was sleet and freezing rain. I am sitting at 24 right now - I know if we get snow on top of the good layer of sleet, you might as well shut us down until at least wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I saw something similar to this as a kid, cant recall what year it was, in the 1980's but they were calling for big snow and all we ever got was sleet and freezing rain. I am sitting at 24 right now - I know if we get snow on top of the good layer of sleet, you might as well shut us down until at least wed. I know temps are forecast to remain below freezing for the next few days, but maybe if we get some sunshine on Tuesday the roads will improve a bit. The sun angle is getting stronger so even with temps below freezing there may be some melting on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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