Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 0z GGEM for the early storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I will be VERY interested to see the euro tonight. I'm not really sure what to think right now modelling wise. The GFS trended better, the GGEM looks great, the NAM might be an icy mess (too close to call). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 UKIE looks cold, consistent, and nicely juiced. Snow map should look nice tomorrow morning. This is what I want to hear, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GGEM is a miss for the second wave. Here is the other clown version. Less for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GEFS mean has over 1.5 of qpf for Chattanooga. WOW! Over an inch for Knoxville, over .75 for KTRI and right at .75 for BNA. .5 + for everyone else north and west of BNA. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 2nd clipper will likely move northeast like most clippers do. I am kind of concerned about how close the warm nose is getting to Knoxville though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know most everyone is asleep but in the "wait.......what" department... Read number 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know most everyone is asleep but in the "wait.......what" department... Read number 3. Bro, I am up! Set the internal alarm, fed the stove, and am rolling. Well, we all have something to worry about. Weakening. Too far south. Too fat north. Warm nose. Suppression. LOL. The GFS, crazy as it is, was just insane. Canadian has me a bit worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 American models are moving towards a significant Miller A IMO...NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know most everyone is asleep but in the "wait.......what" department... Read number 3. Lol when is the last time that has happened? Or better to ask when is the last time that has been mentioned? Bro, I am up! Set the internal alarm, fed the stove, and am rolling. Well, we all have something to worry about. Weakening. Too far south. Too fat north. Warm nose. Suppression. LOL. The GFS, crazy as it is, was just insane. Canadian has me a bit worried. I'm up too! Listening to old Extreme songs. Euro is out to hr 30 on WxBell. The GFS meteogram for KTRI was only around 4 inches or so. Much less than what clown maps are showing. I think that the Baja low will phase. That is the main thing I'm looking at now. That's two streams/jets phasing. JB done went crazy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Almost every 12z GEFS ind member is 5+ for the entire state. Very few misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hour 54 Euro hot off the presses: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hour 66 and looking great: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 By hour 66, the 12z euro has laid 6" in Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I know most everyone is asleep but in the "wait.......what" department... Read number 3. This may not get worked out until 48 hrs out from the storm. JB with something to think about. 1234, why the difference between the lollipops and meteogram? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 looking at my text the euro for bna the euro is holding on maybe even more qpfs for bna .59,ratios should be 12-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, hate to pbp this thread...but what happens after hour 66??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Crazy we are within 3-4 days and modeling STILL can't figure out which of the two possibilities to amp!! Guess I am greedy, but i'd love to get 2-4ish, followed by the Baja system with 4-6 more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, hate to pbp this thread...but what happens after hour 66??? LOL, snow never really gets much above NC. I bet DT's head is swimming right about now. Second wave might catch the outer banks per the euro. Uber suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, hate to pbp this thread...but what happens after hour 66??? The wave is exiting the region at hour 72. The Euro is keying in on the 1st wave and doesn't have anything associated with the Baja interaction. It is over at 72 hours. Now we have 2 camps. 1) Euro/GGEM keying in on the 1st wave 2) NAM/GFS keying in on the 2nd wave and associated moisture with the base of the trough and cutoff Baja low that has been spinning there for days. 0z Euro Clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL, snow never really gets much above NC. I bet DT's head is swimming right about now. Second wave might catch the outer banks per the euro. Uber suppressed. How does KTRI do? IMBY, but a person has to know what a person has to know. For the record, the NAM looks like a Miller A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 With ratios, prob 7-8" Off to bed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The wave is exiting the region at hour 72. The Euro is keying in on the 1st wave and doesn't have anything associated with the Baja interaction. It is over at 72 hours. Now we have 2 camps. 1) Euro/GGEM keying in on the 1st wave 2) NAM/GFS keying in on the 2nd wave and associated moisture with the base of the trough and cutoff Baja low that has been spinning there for days. 0z Euro Clown: Super appreciate the map!!! My money is almost always on the caboose. I could just be flat wrong. But energy diving into the back of systems has a tendency to spawn a tempest in the GOM. Edit...hate being in bed with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The winner is tys, .69"qpf,ratios around 12:1,should be close to 8 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS is beginning to show consistency. The Euro has hardly wavered at all. The GEM has been a bit erratic but it often is. The UKIE has been solid. The best thing is that all appear to give a lot if not all of the valley a good thump even if they arrive in slightly different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You guys need to go back and look at a few more days on the Euro. I know it's way out but you don't get model runs like that one often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You guys need to go back and look at a few more days on the Euro. I know it's way out but you don't get model runs like that one often. No kidding!!! # burried...totally missed that. The 0z Euro and GFS are showing multiple events now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Fog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No kidding!!! # burried...totally missed that. The 0z Euro and GFS are showing multiple events now. Okay... So now I have to buy two sleds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Okay... So now I have to buy two sleds? You're going to also need sled dogs if that run verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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