Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So the NAM drops 8.4" SN, 0.27" IP, and 0.19" ZR on KTRI. That may be a mess, but that's one hell of a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2z RAP is really warm ouch. Just wow. To think, it's temps are in the teens right now and tomorrow we may be facing temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS just drove in the stake for much of the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So the NAM drops 8.4" SN, 0.27" IP, and 0.19" ZR on KTRI. That may be a mess, but that's one hell of a winter storm. Something seems off there. It seems like the trends have been less and less qpf, and more warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0z RGEM precip breakdown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0z RGEM precip breakdown: Well who needs electricity, anyways, right guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0z GFS clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 2z RAP is really warm ouch. Looks like the NAM...rates and low dewpoints drop the temp like a hot rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I really think those are are really over done temps. At this moment its 26, with a dewpoint of -2 imby. I have a hard time seeing those dewpoints rise without crashing temps quite a bit. I really don't see Rain to start at TYS. Dont buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 0 F dewpoint at 9:50 at KTRI and humidity at 43%. Going to take much effort to bring forth rain. Looks all frozen to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So, here is a question we need to begin to consider...does the radar match the models? If so, which one has the early lead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest HRRR sim radar at 17z tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not just my backyard area wide dewpoints are around 0 or just below, even in Chattanooga... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 gfs went S also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Talking about the difference in regular NAM vs. Hi-Res NAM. At TYS for example regular NAM had rain to snow (3.3 inches total) and no freezing rain. Hi-Res NAM has virtually zero snow and 0.8 inch freezing rain. Pretty big difference there. I don't recall seeing such swings between the two before but that's not to say there wasn't any. Probably just goes to show that any tiny swing in temps could have huge consequences across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 This thing is a forecaster's worst nightmare. I've never seen so much flip flopping with temps so close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest RAP surface temps at 21z: Snowshoe WV getting nervous about their ski slopes LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 even the gfs shifted S,will be intersting to see how this plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest RAP surface temps at 21z: Snowshoe WV getting nervous about their ski slopes LOL. 40-50 in the mid valley???? Surreal. I mean it may be right....but I am not buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 whats freaking amazing for this run the GFS got much colder for the 19th,it's now showing 2m temps at -25.9C FOR BNA..WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Latest RAP surface temps at 21z: Snowshoe WV getting nervous about their ski slopes LOL. If it warms that much then this thing is going to seriously amplify, and be an apps runner. I can't see it being a slider but pumping that much warmth that far north. If it keeps at it it'll be rain all the way to Cincy. Crazy... Something isn't right, or making sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Re: RAP & HRRR and that crazy nose... If it's going to be 32ºF at noon tomorrow in SWVA, that's going to be an impressive flip considering it will be 13ºF at daybreak with cloud cover. I'm looking for the hurricane force southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So, here is a question we need to begin to consider...does the radar match the models? If so, which one has the early lead? I think the HRRR has been doing an excellent job so far from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For what it's worth, GGEM is south significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Todd Howell at WBIR says snow to sleet to mix to brief rain and back to snow for central valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Not buying the massive surface torching. As of now, no Mets are either. Even though hinkin said this wasn't going to be a serious winter storm, he has the high in knox at 30 tomorrow. David Aldridge has -8 for Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Look at the placement of the low on the RAP, hell it's in Cherokee NC. Something has to give here, a more southern solution or as another poster put it, an apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 000FXUS64 KOHX 160320AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN912 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 .UPDATE...LATEST 00Z NAM DATA SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHON MONDAY THAN PAINTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. OVERALL, THERE IS VERYGOOD CONTINUITY WITH MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. HOWEVER, THE00Z NAM NOT ONLY CONTINUES THE TREND OF WORKING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO OURAPPROACHING WINTER STORM DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN ANDEASTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE--IT AMPLIFIES THAT LIKELIHOOD. IFTHIS HAPPENS, IT WILL CERTAINLY WORK TO KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR THEMOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL (OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES) CONFINEDLARGELY TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND NEAR THE THE KENTUCKY BORDER.HOWEVER, THE HIGH QPF VALUES OVER THE SOUTH SUGGEST THAT AREAS THATDON`T SEE THAT MUCH SNOW WILL SEE A BOAT LOAD OF SLEET INSTEAD, ANDPOSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW APRETTY THICK LAYER OF FREEZING TEMPS NEAR THE GROUND (ON THE ORDEROF 2K TO 3K FT) WHERE MIXED PRECIP IS EXPECTED, EVEN AS FAR SOUTH ASTHE ALABAMA BORDER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHERE MIXED PRECIP OCCURS, ITWILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARD SLEET RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. INADDITION, TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TOTURN PRECIP TO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN FOR TOMORROW, WE WILL HAVE TOCLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN TODEVELOP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH RIGHT NOW, FORECASTSOUNDINGS FAVOR SLEET, THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THIS WINTERSTORM DEVELOPS. HIGHS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR TOMORROW LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 30 AND32 DEGREES, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FURTHERNORTH. ALL PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD SEE HAZARDOUS DRIVINGCONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY, ALHTOUGH SOUTHERNAREAS COULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB HIGH ENOUGH TO IMPROVE TRAVELCONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHMIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS GREAT AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WE`LLHAVE TO WAIT FOR THE GFS TO COME IN BEFORE JUMPING WHOLE HOG ONTOTHAT IDEA. THE NAM STILL SHOWS AT LEAST 2 AND 4 INCHES LIKELYOVER PARTS OF THE EXTREME NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SO, ATLEAST A NARROW STRIP OF THE NORTH IS STILL VULNERABLE TOSIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS ON MONDAY. AGAIN, EVEN WHERE SNOW IS NOTTHAT SIGNIFICANT, THE SLEET WILL BE COMING DOWN IN BUCKET FULLS. 00Z NAM ACTUALLY SHOWS THE MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW OCCURRING MONDAYNIGHT, WHEN ALMOST ALL AREAS COULD GET AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4INCHES, AS OUR LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS EAST. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS JUST YET, AND GIVEMIDNIGHT SHIFT A CHANCE TO COME IN AND LUCK OVER THE FULL MODELPACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sounds like middle TN is going to have some epic sledding conditions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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