jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How much slop for TYS on 18z nam? Sorry I'm not able to check right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6Z NAM 4Km out to 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lot more juice for the Valley also on the NAM for the system after,i wont comment more on that right now on this thread,first things first..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MRX upgraded me to a WS warning. Their thinking is that we may get warning criteria ice/sleet before it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6Z NAM 4Km out to 48: I was hoping the HRRR would look better but the NAM shows about the same look,if the NAM is right these would start to fall shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well the NAM text output is a helluva lot better than the previous run for here. Thanks a ton for posting the text Jax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well the NAM text output is a helluva lot better than the previous run for here. Thanks a ton for posting the text Jax. Anytime bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 6Z NAM 4Km out to 48: Can anyone explain why the precip is more, temps colder at all levels, but snow is less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Another view of the 18z nam snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yesterday i commented about needing a NW shift...Holy cow didn't want that much of a shift..Feel like i jinxed a lot of Tenn..Eurowx map has me in the 19 inch range..Honestly don't need that much snow with the cold in my area..So here's hoping for a big shift south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Am I taking crazy pills? The nam text output does not seem to match up with the maps on amwx model center in terms of surface and 850 temps. The maps show both 850 and surface going above freezing for a significant portion of the event. Ptype maps show mix and rain that text doesn't reflect. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hey Jax, I am confused. The text data you posted for TRI shows a great thermal setup and plentiful qpf, but the americanwx model suite maps are totally different. Shows borderline thermals and almost 1/2 of the qpf. Where do you get those? Can a met tell me why they would be different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well the NAM text output is a helluva lot better than the previous run for here. Thanks a ton for posting the text Jax. Does not match clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 JKL is pretty much saying 8-15 for their CWA, you're gonna get walloped Lugnuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On the skew-t the NAM shows the warm layer around 800 mb rather than 850, it's 0 from 850 to the surface. Which suggests sleet. Looking at the p-type maps, sleet is the predominant p-type north of 40 for most of the event up into a tier of counties in Ky north of the TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM meteogram which is based on buffkit data is pushing 1.3 inches of ice for TYS with a quarter inch of sleet mixed and virtually no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 JKL is pretty much saying 8-15 for their CWA, you're gonna get walloped Lugnuts. That's what i"m afraid of..Like snow but the temps has me worried..Thing would pretty much come to a stand still for a few days here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 On the skew-t the NAM shows the warm layer around 800 mb rather than 850, it's 0 from 850 to the surface. Which suggests sleet. Looking at the p-type maps, sleet is the predominant p-type north of 40 for most of the event up into a tier of counties in Ky north of the TN border. Well that's better. Excellent sledding if that much sleet falls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM meteogram which is based on buffkit data is pushing 1.3 inches of ice for TYS with a quarter inch of sleet mixed and virtually no snow. Better have a backup power source. Man! That is really dangerous. Would that be a record ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM meteogram which is based on buffkit data is pushing 1.3 inches of ice for TYS with a quarter inch of sleet mixed and virtually no snow.Yikes, batten down the hatches! Talk about crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yikes! I can't even imagine what that much ice would look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z NAM p-type accumulation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 18z GFS similar to NAM, same p-type issues. Clown will be very misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Next to useless because much of that isn't snow, but 18z GFS clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS is slightly cooler than the NAM, slightly further south with all types of frozen. Right now both models are struggling with initial L placement and precip. The current frame for the NAM has the LP in New Mexico with essentially no precip in Texas and hardly any in Missouri. The current surface map shows the L SW of where the NAM placed it and precip is already filling in over East Texas and most of Northern Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This GFS snow map is a bit closer match to the precip type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM forecast for this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Current surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Ukie has a similar clown to euro, 850s are very warm, surface actually seems mostly freezing through the whole thing for TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Hmmm.... GFS seems to produce slightly less warm nose this run compared to last, starts a bit weaker but advertised about the same strength as it gets to AL and into GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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