jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1002 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 .UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF WINDCHILL ADVISORY WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO...PER CURRENTTEMP TRENDS...LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES AS BUILDINGGREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INFLUENCES BECOME MORE ENTRENCHEDACROSS THE MID STATE. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS TOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I agree. It will be around 2:30-3:00 when they release the afternoon update and discussion and update the grids. I'm sure Mr. Bob could answer this better but the NWS isn't going to make abrupt changes too quickly without seeing at least two cycles of model runs. They will probably review all of the 12z data and then change accordingly. All of the point and click forecasts and grids were made early this morning after the 0z data. It's a tough situation to be put in. As we know weather forecasting is extremely hard when there are so many details that can affect the outcome. They will make sure they are certain before making any changes. For TRI, it's going to a be a super fine line between snow-ice-sleet...I am hoping ice really doesn't enter the picture. I cannot remember a weather event like this followed by the temps we could see tues-Thursday. It's conceivable to me that this could be life threatening event for many if ice enters the picture. I wouldn't bet against ICE for even upper east tn, just hope it won't cross clinch mountain into Lee-Scott-Washington counties..yikes. If I was MRX I would over alert and it in the event that they are wrong then so be it...it's too dangerous not to do so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1002 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015 .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. ALSO...PER CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES AS BUILDING GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INFLUENCES BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MID STATE. ALSO TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION... AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS TOO. Yeah if I'm going to hit my forecast high today I have a few hours to rise 7 degrees... Don't think its going to happen. Especially with that gusty N wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would think that if the high over the great lakes is strong enough to hold temps down during the daytime, it "should" be strong enough to force this low a bit further south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OHX updated Snow and Ice accumulation map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I would think that if the high over the great lakes is strong enough to hold temps down during the daytime, it "should" be strong enough to force this low a bit further south as well. It does,and the HRRR reflects it looking at the 850's,dont trust the NAM right now,seems the HP is to far N EDIT:E not N,probably wouldnt matter much anyways as weak as it looks,but every little bit helps..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z GGEM: Gees.. IMBY 1/3 inch glaze, 3/4 inch sleet, and 4 inches snow. Would hope in that scenario glaze comes first, glaze on snow even heavier on trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Let's see if we get lucky and the Doc bumps it south a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Let's see if we get lucky and the Doc bumps it south a tad. lets hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Let's see if we get lucky and the Doc bumps it south a tad. If it does, I can think a meme you might be using. My guess, it follows the UKMET. Euro has was not good w/ the Boston blizzard when in close. NAM and RGEM would be my go to models at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It does,and the HRRR reflects it looking at the 850's,dont trust the NAM right now,seems the HP is to far N But the 12z NAM was one of the best looks we had for the largest part of the state, right? Short term RGEM settled a little to the south at 12z Sorry, just getting back online after church and lunch! Thanks to Carvers for the in-church updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro slightly south! Nashville gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Euro clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Euro slightly south! Nashville gets buried. Models are "seeing" the cold in place now. I would suspect another slight tick south at 0z and on this afternoon's runs. All systems go for the first widespread winter storm of the season. And I'll raise a glass to Nashville in hopes that the drought finally ends w/ a bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anyone have the qpf totals for KTRI? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Euro clown: I just hope that trend continues out through 0Z... I would rather have pure cold crappy rain, than a raging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z Euro clown: That's exactly what I expected to see after reading that blurb from OHX about the high pressure to the north being stronger than expected (holding temps down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's coming down to time where you have to know your area. Tennessee is one of the few states where imby climatology is extremely important. Weather here varies greatly over relatively small areas. If you generally mix in these set ups you're very likely going to here. I'm generally not as susceptible to the warm nose in these situations unless the lp is way north or the cold air is fleeting rapidly. If you often get warm nosed pray for the wobbles to go south. Either way someone is going to get in the icy band and that may be very rough with the cold following this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anyone have the qpf totals for KTRI? Thanks in advance. 1.1 through tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's exactly what I expected to see after reading that blurb from OHX about the high pressure to the north being stronger than expected (holding temps down). I'd like to see that entire thing pivot south 50 miles. Putting upper cumberlands in the brightest pink bullseye, with everything else shifting 50 miles further south. 50 miles isn't a huge distance to move south even at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And remember, elevation won't play a huge factor. Only distance from the track of the low. It's going to be cold enough at the surface for almost everyone. Actually around 5000 feet in the Smokies may be plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MRX Aviation update: .AVIATION...SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM IS ON THE WAY. FLIGHTCONCERNS WILL BE RATHER MINOR WITH ALTO CU CEILINGS LOWERING TOJUST ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 12-16Z AT THE TERMINALS WITH AMIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING COINCIDENT WITH LOWERINGCEILINGS. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MAINLY -SN AT TRI UNTIL CLOSE TO THEEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN SOME PL MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW. ATTYS PRECIP WOULD PROBABLY START AS SOME -SN AND THEN MIX AROUNDMID DAY WITH SOME SLEET WHILE CHA MAY START AS SOME -SN AND PL BUTTRANSITION INTO FREEZING RAIN LATE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING INTORAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 1.1 through tues Basically, the snow totals are cut by warm air aloft. That means 4-8" for TRI, then sleet, then crust it w/ ice. Power guys better be getting some sleep. I may need to go by them a gift certificate for what they are about to have to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 1.1 through tues I find myself being really interested in the .10-15 that follows the storm, I think some TRI areas could get an additional 2-4 with the snow ratio's that we see after the storm. I would have been excited about 2-4 inches about a 6 days ago, now it's cherry on the top potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Basically, the snow totals are cut by warm air aloft. That means 4-8" for TRI, then sleet, then crust it w/ ice. Power guys better be getting some sleep. I may need to go by them a gift certificate for what they are about to have to do. Carver,i certainly don't doubt you but I was curious how you came to your conclusion for warm air aloft cutting totals for tri? The text outputs I looked at do have a period of .30-.40 where our ratio's are more reasonable, but then it's followed by pretty stout ratio's in the .45 zone. Is this a case where western counties, namely Lee, Scott, Wise, Hancock do a little better then Washington county and Bristol...nitpicking of course but it seems a little spread on the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Carver,i certainly don't doubt you but I was curious how you came to your conclusion for warm air aloft cutting totals for tri? The text outputs I looked at do have a period of .30-.40 where our ratio's are more reasonable, but then it's followed by pretty stout ratio's in the .45 zone. Is this a case where western counties, namely Lee, Scott, Wise, Hancock do a little better then Washington county and Bristol...nitpicking of course but it seems a little spread on the maps? MRX comments...plus all great storms here have a warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Southwest VA has snow on the ground from last night. I would guess some areas up there could go above a foot. Going to be some big winners and losers as there always are. The huge qpf amounts on all models indicate this will be a great winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The RGEM seems to be the warmest outlier, check out the temps at hour 33 when the storm is cranking: 850mb: Surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I really, really do hope the Euro is right for Nashville. It's so close between not much and epic for the 40 corridor, snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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