jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Meteograms show the 12z NAM with a quarter inch of sleet and 3 quarters inch of ice for TYS. I believe it looking at the Text output that Jax just posted... God, I hope not. I hope the warm nose allows for more sleet than freezing rain. I mean seriously catastrophic ice storm... Aint nobody got time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Meteograms show the 12z NAM with a quarter inch of sleet and 3 quarters inch of ice for TYS. [/quote Yet no ice warnings from MRX which makes me wonder what they are seeing that we are not. Or if they plan to abruptly change things in the afternoon disco. If there's going to be that much ice youd think the NWS would step in so I'm kind of wondering if it's just model problems versus met experience. This is exactly what I'm wondering. We're now hard pressed to find a model that is showing mostly snow for the central valley. Either MRX sees something the models don't or we're about to see them majorly revise their call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z GFS clown: I still like where we are sitting in the Middle TN area, the way I look at it is that what ever we get will be alot more than what we have had the last few years so it is a win win in my book. North of town it still looks like a good thumping of snow for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anyone have any TRI info for NAM, GFS, and RGEM. Just getting out of church. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jax, could you pull CHA text? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I still like where we are sitting in the Middle TN area, the way I look at it is that what ever we get will be alot more than what we have had the last few years so it is a win win in my book. North of town it still looks like a good thumping of snow for me I'd feel great if I was in Nashville or west. My old buddies in Paris are in an awesome spot. I really hope those areas get the long over due good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anyone have any TRI info for NAM, GFS, and RGEM. Just getting out of church. Actually the 12z NAM is a big win for TRI according to meteograms. Will 7 inches of snow, a third of an inch of sleet, and virtually no ice work for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MRX... Sounds like they are concerned about precip types but not incredibly so saying "For some" gees looks like for most... Surely by the time they put this out they had already seen the NAM, and at least the beginning frames on the GFS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN1039 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL. WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCELTHE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE APPLICABLE AREAS...BUT WILL CHANGETHE WIND CHILL WARNING AREAS TO AN ADVISORY AND EXTEND TILL 6PMWHEN WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT. FORECAST FOR THIS WINTERSTORM IS UNDERGOING REVIEW RIGHT NOW...WILL NOT MAKE ANYADJUSTMENTS HERE. MAIN ISSUE IS LATEST MODELS SUGGEST WARMER AIRSURGING FARTHER NORTHWARD ALOFT...WILL POSSIBLY NEED TO WORK ONPRECIP TYPE FOR SOME AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S NEXT FORECASTRELEASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anyone have any TRI info for NAM, GFS, and RGEM. Just getting out of church. yall are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Actually the 12z NAM is a big win for TRI according to meteograms. Will 7 inches of snow, a third of an inch of sleet, and virtually no ice work for you? Will take it. Ice I am really worried about with all of the cold temps arriving. UKMET update? Ice for everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Its been a while but I do remember a few storms late 90's where warm nose was over modeled... What if? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 The NAM was certainly being nightmarish for freezing rain. 1-2 inches of ice on the south side of the I-40 corridor!? That would be devestating combined with the sub-freezing weather for the rest of the week. I still don't think it will be warm enough in TYS for freezing rain. Perhaps some mixing sleet there for a while then a changeback over to all snow. 4-8" of snow there is looking legitimate. KTRI will be too cold for any mixing. I don't think we get out of the 20s tomorrow. It's just too cold. If the SLP is strong enough, downsloping may be an issue off the Blue Ridge for parts of the far eastern counties, such as Carter, Greene, Sevier, Blount, etc., and some the western flanks of the Smokies. I still think the plateau, upper East TN, SE KY and SWVA ends up with 8-12", perhaps the 12" more confined to eastern KY and SWVA. The ratios are going to be significant. This is going to be a whopper of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Will take it. Ice I am really worried about with all of the cold temps arriving. UKMET update? Ice for everyone? Ukie virtually identical to Euro from what I could tell which is warm nose city for east TN. Hard to tell how much of what will be on the ground when it's over as the warm up looks to turn everything over to rain at the end verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anyone have any TRI info for NAM, GFS, and RGEM. Just getting out of church. Carvers the 12z HI-RES NAM is warmer than the regular 12km NAM. It shows .25 inches of ice and around .35 inches of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Ukie virtually identical to Euro from what I could tell which is warm nose city for east TN. Hard to tell how much of what will be on the ground when it's over as the warm up looks to turn everything over to rain at the end verbatim. To me, that would be a devastating ice storm. Bet it has trouble handling the scouring of the Valley cold. This is fresh Arctic air, not stale. Man, would be brutal. Power outages galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Anyone have any TRI info for NAM, GFS, and RGEM. Just getting out of church. Text out put 18z Monday .06 at 23 degrees 1 inch SN 0z tues .46 at 26 degrees 7 inches SN 06z tues .39 at 31.2 degrees 4-5 inches SN 12z tues .07 at 19.2 degree 1-2 SN And then Tues-late Wednesday .05 at 9-0 zero temps or below, or maybe squeezing out 1-2 inches of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Carvers the 12z HI-RES NAM is warmer than the regular 12km NAM. It shows .25 inches of ice and around .35 inches of sleet So, basically...nobody goes goes anywhere. Am worries about ice on snow. Power outages everywhere with that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Text out put 18z Monday .06 at 23 degrees 1 inch SN 0z tues .46 at 26 degrees 7 inches SN 06z tues .39 at 31.2 degrees 4-5 inches SN 12z tues .07 at 19.2 degree 1-2 SN And then Tues-late Wednesday .05 at 9-0 zero temps or below, or maybe squeezing out 1-2 inches of snow... How about for BNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranger Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know no one has really mentioned the southern plateau region from Crossville on south to Monteagle...what kind of issues are we looking like there? Is any elevation going to play a significant role with this particular storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When do we get to the point of nowcasting this event? I honestly think we will just have to wait and see on some of the snow vs ice scenarios. 1 degree could make all the difference between pure powder or crippling ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know no one has really mentioned the southern plateau region from Crossville on south to Monteagle...what kind of issues are we looking like there? Is any elevation going to play a significant role with this particular storm? orographic lift always is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MRX removed their snow accumulations map graphic. Haven't replaced it yet. BNA still is hanging tight with even 4-6" in southern middle TN, but adding ice accumulations to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MRX sill holding to the high snow totals in there 11 am Winter storm warning update. Do they know something or are they just trying to remain consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 When do we get to the point of nowcasting this event? I honestly think we will just have to wait and see on some of the snow vs ice scenarios. 1 degree could make all the difference between pure powder or crippling ice. Probably later on tonight and into the morning. We will have to watch when the precip starts breaking out over the Arkansas region later tonight and into the early morning. Your absolutely right, this will come down to the wire with regards of the snow/ip/zr line and 1-2 degrees could be the difference of people losing power and trees. Even the higher resolution models will have trouble seeing the exact locations where the transition will occur. Everybody needs to get groceries and supplies today because it will be hard to tomorrow. Unless you do it in the early morning hours, but places out west (Nashville-Memphis) probably won't get to. One thing I'm interested in is the water vapor imagery later on tonight. That will give us a good idea of what the orientation of the upper levels are looking like(500mb level). We should be able to use the RAP and HRRR tonight as it comes closer into range. Normally those two higher resolution models are pretty good. RAP goes out to 18 hours and the HRRR goes out to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 MRX sill holding to the high snow totals in there 11 am Winter storm warning update. Do they know something or are they just trying to remain consistent. They will update this afternoon for sure. Stated in this thread they were reviewing. If it is an ice storm, things become much more urgent in terms of information being dispersed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 They will update this afternoon for sure. Stated in this thread they were reviewing. If it is an ice storm, things become much more urgent in terms of information being dispersed. I agree, they will have to be very frank. With some of the modeling seriously a catastrophic ice storm, with the following cold it could be multi-day power outages, and massive tree damage which would include structural damage from falling trees. Truly the worse case scenario possible. I echo 1234Snow, with that in mind it really is the day to prepare. Propane/Kerosene/Gas/Groceries... Really have to prepare for potentially long duration power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 They will update this afternoon for sure. Stated in this thread they were reviewing. If it is an ice storm, things become much more urgent in terms of information being dispersed. I agree. It will be around 2:30-3:00 when they release the afternoon update and discussion and update the grids. I'm sure Mr. Bob could answer this better but the NWS isn't going to make abrupt changes too quickly without seeing at least two cycles of model runs. They will probably review all of the 12z data and then change accordingly. All of the point and click forecasts and grids were made early this morning after the 0z data. It's a tough situation to be put in. As we know weather forecasting is extremely hard when there are so many details that can affect the outcome. They will make sure they are certain before making any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Heck, if I had the money I would be heading down to buy a generator. Edit: Not to sound overly alarmist, i've really actually always wanted one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I know no one has really mentioned the southern plateau region from Crossville on south to Monteagle...what kind of issues are we looking like there? Is any elevation going to play a significant role with this particular storm? The southern Plateau is like the Bermuda Triangle for me. The elevation will help limit ice and increase snow amounts. But if the low brushes you, elevation won't help. Would guess the southern end of the CP will be mostly sleet and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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