ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 If you took the GFS verbatim, Chatt gets 2-4" inches, lookout, signal and so on around 6". Plus you would likely get some glazing for a bit of ice. It'll be a winter wonderland of sorts, shcools and businesses will be closed and it will be a terrible idea to travel. Personally I think dynamics will win out for you all and all of the southern valley in the end. We still have noon, 18Z and even 0Z before the storm starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Closer view on the 6Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The clown looks decent, but the text doesn't support it. Anything that falls in the morning would get washed away in the afternoon. That being said, it is only 1-2 degrees away from being a catastrophic ice storm. It will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll be staying in the Knoxville area. I know it's supposed to be cold for several days after the snow. Does anyone think the interstates will be in decent driving condition by Thursday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll be staying in the Knoxville area. I know it's supposed to be cold for several days after the snow. Does anyone think the interstates will be in decent driving condition by Thursday ? I'm betting they are drivable, but still have patchy snow and ice considering the really cold air. 0 or below zero that morning even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just heard from a friend that the Knoxville area forecast went from heavy snow to a rainy sloppy mix. Said he heard this from a local met. The sites I've checked appear to still have the Central Valley in for 4 to 8 inches. What are the models currently indicating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snowstorm, here is a link to the Tennessee Department of Transportation's Smartway Traffic site. It should give you a decent idea of travel conditions on the interstate on Thursday (click on the Feature Menu in the upper right corner and select Road Conditions). This is a real time site, they don't predict, so you'll have to check it Thursday of course... Hope that helps! Safe travels! https://smartway.tn.gov/traffic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll be staying in the Knoxville area. I know it's supposed to be cold for several days after the snow. Does anyone think the interstates will be in decent driving condition by Thursday ? I am putting this back in since it was answered twice but please keep this kind of stuff in banter...this is a forecast thread. The answers should be self evident based on the forecasts made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just heard from a friend that the Knoxville area forecast went from heavy snow to a rainy sloppy mix. Said he heard this from a local met. The sites I've checked appear to still have the Central Valley in for 4 to 8 inches. What are the models currently indicating? GFS its still likely K-town 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And the 12z NAM is a IP/ZR storm for most of TN turning to rain in the southern half.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z NAM clown. For East Tennessee looks to me like Sleet and freezing rain cuts totals down dramatically from about a line of Dayton (Rhea county) to Athens (McMinn county) and south. Totals north of that also have to contend with a lot of Sleet and look lower, but less liquid and higher overall totals still in the range MRX appears to be forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z NAM Clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 9z SREF clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Higher resolution of the 12Z NAM clown. Really shows that line of about Dayton - Athens in East Tennessee as the sort of cut off where south of that line less than 3", north of the line rapidly increases to MRX forecast levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 yeah NAM is showing the warm nose at BNA +1C at the 850',would be worse the farther S you get in Mid/Tn unless you are by the KY/TN border,it would be mainly sn.The sad thing after comparing the 850's between the NAM and HRRR,hrrr is even warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Better hope the RGEM is wrong. It has the 850 freezing line on the KY border and most of the snow of course north of that. Sleet and ice special for TN. That was 6z run, 12z is rolling out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z Ukie looks nearly identical to 0z Euro. Snow drops off as you move east due to the warm nose. West TN, especially north do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think the clown maps are telling the whole story. Especially the ones like the WeatherBell maps that don't distinguish snow from ip/zr. Here is the 12z HI-RES NAM and it shows a pretty significant ice storm over a lot of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't think the clown maps are telling the whole story. Especially the ones like the WeatherBell maps that don't distinguish snow from ip/zr. Here is the 12z HI-RES NAM and it shows a pretty significant ice storm over a lot of the valley. eeks... Thats like 1" of pellets, and .25" of glaze IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z GFS is still a hit for BNA....based on the rudimentary SV maps I have access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12z GFS clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 12Z GFS is still a hit for BNA....based on the rudimentary SV maps I have access to. Edit:the 850's are at +0.6 at 12z Mon,so it would be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And the 12z NAM is a IP/ZR storm for most of TN turning to rain in the southern half.... Mr. Bob, do you think the northern valley sees mostly snow? 12z NAM looks like mostly snow for TRI. But I also agree, a crippling ice storm for many considering how cold it will be afterward. Also, as a follow-up, will you please tell me how much snow will fall in the pepper pot in my backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Are there still snow showers following the storm for SWVA/East tn? Last nights 0z gfs showed .10-.15 qpf but at crazy snow ratios approaching 0-9 temps or 15-25:1 snow ratios, would add 2-4 inches if true. Assuming this is standard NW flow post storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Meteograms show the 12z NAM with a quarter inch of sleet and 3 quarters inch of ice for TYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Meteograms show the 12z NAM with a quarter inch of sleet and 3 quarters inch of ice for TYS. Ugh that's miserable stove, I wonder how much wiggle room you might have for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Meteograms show the 12z NAM with a quarter inch of sleet and 3 quarters inch of ice for TYS.Yet no ice warnings from MRX which makes me wonder what they are seeing that we are not. Or if they plan to abruptly change things in the afternoon disco. If there's going to be that much ice youd think the NWS would step in so I'm kind of wondering if it's just model problems versus met experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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