jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This just keeps reminding me more and more of Jan 29-30th 2010. Looked great for snow for everyone right up until the event arrived then the warm nose gave everyone in the 40 corridor and points south major ice on top of 3-5 inches of snow. I was lucky enough to stay all snow for the event and the Euro snowfall map from 00z is almost a mirror image of what happened with that storm. So is the 00z NAM run. yup,the euro switched out to such an extreme it has the LP coming though Mid Tn now,this sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We'll just have to see how it goes. I've seen some legendary screw jobs before where the rug was yanked with winter storm warnings rolling. I mean bone dry when 6+ inches were forecast hours before. I hope this storm becomes a classic memory, but not for that reason at all. I hope it's remember as the storm that kicked off a series of winter storms for the area and 2015 ends up being a legendary winter for the whole valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 SREF plume on 3Z is down to 2 inches for TYS. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Cant wait for MRX morning disco, hopefully out soon. Really curious their take on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM is starting to run... We'll see where she goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 going to bed,the trends tonight sucked and it should be sampled,you wont see much change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 NAM is just a massive ice storm for everyone south of Kentucky basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It shows north of 40 getting sleet with temps in the lower 20s at the onset. My temps never get out of the 20s. Gives SE Kentucky 14-18 inches of snow. Most of Tennessee probably gets 2-3 inches of sleet. The border areas with Kentucky and VA get 2-6 inches of snow. And south of 40 you get some freezing rain on top of your sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It shows north of 40 getting sleet with temps in the lower 20s at the onset. My temps never get out of the 20s. Gives SE Kentucky 14-18 inches of snow. Most of Tennessee probably gets 2-3 inches of sleet. The border areas with Kentucky and VA get 2-6 inches of snow. And south of 40 you get some freezing rain on top of your sleet. It's the temps aloft that are the big question. We have cold at the surface. We have moisture. The big question is if warm air is going to be pulled aloft into east TN, and if so, how far north. I'm staying up to hear the MRX discussion. CPC isn't buying into the model shift completely. Also, when a model shifts this much within 24 hours, it seems pretty sketchy to me. I realize that's wishcasting, but I'm not going to cliff dive until 12Z or at least MRX's disco. EDIT: Also it'll be important to see how 'warm' we get today and how cold it gets tonight before the onset of moisture. If it's colder than progged, then the warm nose will be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The WPC disco from a few minutes ago. MIDDLE-LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTCOAST...MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AS WELL AS HIGHERPROBABILITIES TO THE SNOW AXIS FROM PARTS OF MISSOURI EASTWARDTHROUGH THE OH-TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITHADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO ICE THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERNARKANSAS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ALSOPOSSIBLE IF THE NEW LOW TRACKS VERIFY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THENUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES SUCH AS ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO RETARD THENORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELLAS THE COMPLEXITIES OF MID-LEVEL BANDING AND ROLE OFCONVECTION...ADJUSTMENTS OVERALL ARE MODEST BUT LESS CONSERVATIVETHAT WOULD PURELY BE SUGGESTED FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCEALONE. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN LESS THAN AVERAGE RUN-TO-RUNCONTINUITY...WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON TO BE CAUTIOUS OF HUGEFORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. THEREFORE...THE LATEST SNOW/ICEPROBABILITIES ARE WEIGHTED 50 TO 75 PERCENT TOWARD THE LATESTCONSENSUS...WITH THE REST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECASTFOR MESSAGING PURPOSES AND TO MINIMIZE THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF AFLIP-FLOP SHOULD FUTURE RUNS CHANGE THEIR TUNE. THE RESULT IS LOWTO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHEASTMISSOURI EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS...WITH A BROADER AREA OF 4 INCH PROBABILITIESSURROUNDING IT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ANDBRUSHES THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND ADJACENT TO THE SNOW PROBABILITIES IS ANARROW BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF ICE POTENTIAL...WITHMODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 0.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTOKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFOREEXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEEBORDER...AND EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS FORMONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It shows north of 40 getting sleet with temps in the lower 20s at the onset. My temps never get out of the 20s. Gives SE Kentucky 14-18 inches of snow. Most of Tennessee probably gets 2-3 inches of sleet. The border areas with Kentucky and VA get 2-6 inches of snow. And south of 40 you get some freezing rain on top of your sleet. Yep pretty much all of Tennessee appears to get icy. I'm concerned about I-40 south, back and forth sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And the WPC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well never mind, that's yesterday's map still. Though it showed Sunday as day 1 and Monday as day 2. I'll see where the newest one is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Glad to hear CPC not quite ready to jump on board the recent model changes just yet, would explain why the WPC maps remained fairly consistent in the latest run. I'm not going to make it till the MRX disco. Guess i'll be waking up and having to catch up. Maybe we can get the GFS to remain fairly consistent with snow being the primary P/type for most of the state... We'll see, still some time for models to move around a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 These were issued a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Though it snows a mix, this is the 06z clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not gotten the AFD yet but the forecast grids have came in for today. As of now, MRX still extremely bullish for all of their CWA. My forecast looks fantastic. 3-7 inches Monday, 1-3 Monday night. Even down in the Southern Valley it still calls for 3-5 inches of snow along with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not gotten the AFD yet but the forecast grids have came in for today. As of now, MRX still extremely bullish for all of their CWA. My forecast looks fantastic. 3-7 inches Monday, 1-3 Monday night. Even down in the Southern Valley it still calls for 3-5 inches of snow along with freezing rain. I really want to see what they have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE RUNTO RUN SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON DETAILS...BUT OVERALL PATTERN INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS BRING IN WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH PROVIDES A POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN... ESPECIALLY NEAR CHA. ADDITIONALLY...NEW RUNS BRING IN STRONGER DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT NORTH OF TYS. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL TYS NORTHWARD...SO WILL UPDATE CURRENT WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THIS AREA. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF PRECIP TYPES OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND WILL LEAVE A WATCH IN PLACE THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's the morning disco from MRX. 40 North going into a warning, southern valley staying a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I don't like being in the battle zone for snow versus ice but I'll take it over nothing but rain or sleet or freezing rain. I guess they're anticipating that the warm nose is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 OHX has now issued a Winter Storm Warning for it's entire CWA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I like the fact that it is currently 10 here with a DP of -8 and that there was a small, but not seemingly insignificant snowpack last night in southern KY and SW VA. I'm not a meteorologist by any means, but I wonder if that could help us stay colder. Plus the ever growing glacier in New England? Could it help hold the high in place longer? Don't know, but it's interesting to think about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 06z gfs looked maybe 25 miles South of the 00z run. All snow north of 40 on it. Looks like rain may be possible along the southern tier on it. 40 is a battlezone. Right along 40 the GFS puts down 3-5 inches. South of 40 almost no snow but a lot of ice. Counties a tier north of 40 look like 8-12 on that run. Pretty much held serve with the 00z run overall. Good news is that the northward trend seems to have paused at least. Hopefully that small shift south is in the cards and the whole valley gets the snow rather than ice/cold rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 06z clown. Likely showing all frozen as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I love it when the map looks like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not too excited about how this trended for here. Looks like another case of hope and pray the models under estimate the cold at the surface and evaporational cooling and such. Looked like a dead ringer yesterday and the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not too excited about how this trended for here. Looks like another case of hope and pray the models under estimate the cold at the surface and evaporational cooling and such. Looked like a dead ringer yesterday and the day before We are screwed here if we want snow. Looks like Monday temps will shoot to the upper 30's to near 40*. After starting out as a mix it looks to be a nice, cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not too excited about how this trended for here. Looks like another case of hope and pray the models under estimate the cold at the surface and evaporational cooling and such. Looked like a dead ringer yesterday and the day before Yep. I have a feeling this one is going to be a heartbreaker here. It's going to be extremely close too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Last night's models were a warning sign...let's see what today's models offer. It's never easy for us snow lovers in Tennessee. Major props to those who post model images and give us info and analysis. Good luck to all over over the next 48 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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