jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Does he mean this is a wobble and to expect it to wobble back south, or does he mean it will wobble further north for the Ohio Valley? quote from his Fri blog: Now, before I leave for the day, a quick update on the storm potential for next week. The models pulled off a dramatic shift since I left the building yesterday, and what I have seen of the 12z model suite thus far hasn't really changed too much. The shift is decidedly southward with the storm coming out of the southern Plains. While that may spare areas from the central Plains the Ohio Valley of any serious snow issues, it does mean snow and ice is now on the table much farther south, perhaps even into parts of North and northeast Texas, northernmost Louisiana and parts of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, Tennessee, and over to western North Carolina. The latest GFS still has a pretty strong storm emerging off Cape Hatteras Tuesday night, bringing some snow through the mid-Atlantic and southern and eastern New England. It would not be a direct hit for them in this scenario, but it would clearly be more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Are we looking at an ice storm now according to Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Are we looking at an ice storm now according to Euro? Thats what I was reading in the SE forum. I don't have access to the Euro P-types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thats what I was reading in the SE forum. I don't have access to the Euro P-types. QPF will be there. Now way this cold air gets out of the valley in time. Dang. Not sure if we want that with sub-zero on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think I have found why we are seeing the warmer trends this evening and it has everything to do with the upper air energy (500mb). I noticed this when looking at the 500mb vort maps on the GFS and noticed the difference. I'll try to point out what I am looking at. The differences I saw were at the front or the leading edge of the trough. There has always been some energy leaking out ahead of the broader trough. This energy was what we were calling the 1st wave. Now all the models have focused on this wave being the dominant one. I don't think the northward/warmer trend has anything to do with the interaction with the Baja low. The dynamics of the system are already taking place before that happens and the models are not keying in on there being any backside snow. I'm going to post 2 images from today's GFS. The first one is from the 12z run. The area I have been paying attention to is around the Kansas/Missouri region. That is where the leading edge of the trough and the energy associated with the 1st/dominant wave is at. Notice how flat the orientation of the energy is. It has a neutral and almost positive(/) tilt to it. This allows the surface low to track due east across the Deep South and limits the northward flow of the warm air/warm nose. Now here is the 0z GFS at the same time frame. Notice how much stronger the energy is around the same region. The earlier runs of the model totally missed this "extra" energy. Also the energy is slightly negative tilted (). This allows the surface to track more to the north over northern AL/GA. This leads to a greater warm nose because the upper air is allowed to turn more from the south/southeast. It is the backing of the flow that is causing the low and warm air to get pushed further north. This also leads to a more amped solution because more gulf moisture is dragged in. I hope all of that made sense. This is just something to keep an eye on tomorrow's runs that I think all models have missed and are now correcting on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Very nice write up, makes a lot of sense. Sucks a bit, but makes a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z Euro is in. I don't have the Precip type maps but on the precip frames the 32 degree line gets pushed all the way up to KTRI during the height of the storm. So the warm nose is strong in this run. Kentucky gets plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Are we looking at an ice storm now accyup.the euro is bringing the strom into N/ALording to Euro? yup.the euro is bringing the storm into N/AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gees.... Hate to see tomorrows runs, bullseye will be on Cincinnati. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Believe it or not that clown map looks close to what the Euro/GGEM was showing when the storm first came into range 5 days or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gees.... Hate to see tomorrows runs, bullseye will be on Cincinnati that wont happen,but this is now a big ice storm unless the GFS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Nasty ice storm..79 qpfs for Nashville,2m's will never recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 that wont happen,but this is now a big ice storm unless the GFS is right Really Really Really don't want an ice storm... I'd rather take 2" of wasteful sleet, or just plain 34 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Euro is definitely stronger with the leading energy even compared to the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The Euro is definitely stronger with the leading energy even compared to the GFS: root for the GFS,the euro did show us 3 ft drifts long range//lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 worried though the NAM showed the way tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Does that potential ice storm include Chattanooga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 almost 1" qpf ice for BNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll be interested to hear the MRX discussion in a couple of hours. My gut is telling me something is fishy about this northward pull - but then again it would be typical of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Does that potential ice storm include Chattanooga? mostly rain,what a big shift N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Does that potential ice storm include Chattanooga? going by GFS surface temps yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'll be interested to hear the MRX discussion in a couple of hours. My gut is telling me something is fishy about this northward pull - but then again it would be typical of this winter. Not to mention areas further south under Winter Storm Watches would be dropped, and areas north where they aren't would be hoisted. Going to be some seriously watch wary people after this coup so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looks like about 4-5" for me. Lexington KY the place to be for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Not to mention areas further south under Winter Storm Watches would be dropped, and areas north where they aren't would be hoisted. Going to be some seriously watch wary people after this coup so to speak. Unless MRX knows something we don't know. I'm hesitant to go cliff diving at this point until I hear their disco and see what the 6z and 12z models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Unless MRX knows something we don't know. I'm hesitant to go cliff diving at this point until I hear their disco and see what the 6z and 12z models say. Heres to hoping that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 if anyone gets 2-4: with this setup feel lucky,dont think anyone will other than tri maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 sad when the models can even get 18-24 hrs right,maybe they will shift back 12 hrs out,**** they can even nail a da y out,who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WPC is still oddly banking on older suites. This is new after all the 0Z runs. Interesting, maybe they know something we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This just keeps reminding me more and more of Jan 29-30th 2010. Looked great for snow for everyone right up until the event arrived then the warm nose gave everyone in the 40 corridor and points south major ice on top of 3-5 inches of snow. I was lucky enough to stay all snow for the event and the Euro snowfall map from 00z is almost a mirror image of what happened with that storm. So is the 00z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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