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Central PA & The Fringes - Mid-Winter 14/15


PennMan

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As Mag said: it has been a process today. I woke up this morning and I was thinking I would get at least 4" of snow today.and when I only had .5" by supper time I was baffled. The models seemed in agreement. CPT had decent totals. It just all fell apart. I'm not really bothered by the lack of snow today - I got 400' of driveway to blow. It's more the models got me AGAIN!

Did some of you other guys on here have a good idea what the trend was going to be?

Voyager you was good today. Thought you was on the up side. Just waiting for the snow.

Moral of this snow storm never trust the models :-)

Thanks to everyone who makes this forum what it is!!

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Well guys, it's been an interesting day to say the least.  I always find it fascinating that no matter how much we try, we cannot suppress our emotions, and are quick to make posts in the heat of the moment.  Like the others have just said, Voyager, you don't have to apologize.  I think that major kudos must go out to '93 Blizzard who made nothing but optimistic posts during the entire event.  I was following his comments, and it was easy to see how positive he was.

 

Even after 55 "seasoned" years of life I have my frustration moments like everyone else around here.  I even thought twice about whether I should delete my rare IMBY comments earlier today.  I was trying to figure out why today's event was such an emotional trigger.  I could only come up with the fact that it's been frigid around here for the past 8 straight days; we're living through weather history in the making with Harrisburg very likely having it's coldest February since records began (around 1888?); many of us have had nickel and dime events, which makes us "feel" like we are "owed" a big one; we're tired of watching the big cities getting creamed time-after-time; we know that the heart of winter is ending and snow chances will slowly decline as well.

 

I haven't been writing down my snow records although I've pretty much posted them here throughout the season.  It's looking like today's total is 2.5".  Add that to last Tuesday's 2.6" for a 5-day total of 5.1".  I still hold out hope for an event of 4 or more before the season is over.  I would have to say that I do believe the whole region could score a 5 or 6 inch event within the next 3 weeks.  There's always hope.  What's did the 12z Euro look like for the next potential event?

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As Mag said: it has been a process today. I woke up this morning and I was thinking I would get at least 4" of snow today.and when I only had .5" by supper time I was baffled. The models seemed in agreement. CPT had decent totals. It just all fell apart. I'm not really bothered by the lack of snow today - I got 400' of driveway to blow. It's more the models got me AGAIN!

Did some of you other guys on here have a good idea what the trend was going to be?

Voyager you was good today. Thought you was on the up side. Just waiting for the snow.

Moral of this snow storm never trust the models :-)

Thanks to everyone who makes this forum what it is!!

A few days ago I think a good many of us didn't believe the warm air pushing north far enough was going to cause much in the way of a changeover and sure enough the models trended colder... what I don't think we were expecting was for the event to shift so far south that Virginia/Maryland would jackpot when they looked to be all rain just 2-3 days ago.  I thought the 4-6" forecast for Harrisburg/etc was a pretty good call, I just think they jumped the gun with the warning since it was issued after a wet 9z SREF and 12z NAM... an advisory was probably more appropriate from the start, but then again the warning was issued when they were still believing a decent changeover to freezing rain.  The threat of ice allows for the warning when we may not pass 6" snowfall threshold.  This has been a brutal winter for the models and this event was no different.  If things didn't set up a little further south than what models had just yesterday then likely all of us would have had a little bit better outcome.

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Well guys, it's been an interesting day to say the least.  I always find it fascinating that no matter how much we try, we cannot suppress our emotions, and are quick to make posts in the heat of the moment.  Like the others have just said, Voyager, you don't have to apologize.  I think that major kudos must go out to '93 Blizzard who made nothing but optimistic posts during the entire event.  I was following his comments, and it was easy to see how positive he was.

 

Even after 55 "seasoned" years of life I have my frustration moments like everyone else around here.  I even thought twice about whether I should delete my rare IMBY comments earlier today.  I was trying to figure out why today's event was such an emotional trigger.  I could only come up with the fact that it's been frigid around here for the past 8 straight days; we're living through weather history in the making with Harrisburg very likely having it's coldest February since records began (around 1888?); many of us have had nickel and dime events, which makes us "feel" like we are "owed" a big one; we're tired of watching the big cities getting creamed time-after-time; we know that the heart of winter is ending and snow chances will slowly decline as well.

 

I haven't been writing down my snow records although I've pretty much posted them here throughout the season.  It's looking like today's total is 2.5".  Add that to last Tuesday's 2.6" for a 5-day total of 5.1".  I still hold out hope for an event of 4 or more before the season is over.  I would have to say that I do believe the whole region could score a 5 or 6 inch event within the next 3 weeks.  There's always hope.  What's did the 12z Euro look like for the next potential event?

I find it frustrating on my own, personal behalf that I can't control my emotions when it comes to these events. I keep telling myself to expect A-B" and let it go - especially with something like this. It's not like we were seeing everyone else S+E getting 10, 12, or more inches (well okay, some areas, right 83BLIZZARD? :lol: )

 

I think you nailed it in your second paragraph. Bitter cold without decent snow is nothing but frustration; last March was a perfect example. What good is freezing your rear end off the moment you step outside if the snow isn't going to fall? It's like getting 10 hits in a baseball game and having just 1-2 runs to show for it. Meanwhile, the teams around you keep on winning while you're sliding down the standings. You know you can be there, but it just keeps not happening. Bringing it back to snow, then you do - you get something where basically everyone around you is snowing and you're slotted out. All the frustration compounds. Maybe our best snow chances aren't behind us...we know March is well-known for pulling craziness. But the sun angle gets higher, the daylight hours are going to take a big jump in two weeks...so yeah.

 

I'm glad that we managed to salvage close to 3" in the end, it certainly beats a stick in the eye, and it's not as painful considering the most we missed out on, at least in regard to areas like Philly/NJ/NYC, was 4-6" changing to ice (it's going to be ugly in SEPA, C NJ, etc tonight).

 

I think we just reached a breaking point today with that dryslot given what we've been through not just this winter, but those of the past.

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Well guys, it's been an interesting day to say the least.  I always find it fascinating that no matter how much we try, we cannot suppress our emotions, and are quick to make posts in the heat of the moment.  Like the others have just said, Voyager, you don't have to apologize.  I think that major kudos must go out to '93 Blizzard who made nothing but optimistic posts during the entire event.  I was following his comments, and it was easy to see how positive he was.

 

Even after 55 "seasoned" years of life I have my frustration moments like everyone else around here.  I even thought twice about whether I should delete my rare IMBY comments earlier today.  I was trying to figure out why today's event was such an emotional trigger.  I could only come up with the fact that it's been frigid around here for the past 8 straight days; we're living through weather history in the making with Harrisburg very likely having it's coldest February since records began (around 1888?); many of us have had nickel and dime events, which makes us "feel" like we are "owed" a big one; we're tired of watching the big cities getting creamed time-after-time; we know that the heart of winter is ending and snow chances will slowly decline as well.

 

I haven't been writing down my snow records although I've pretty much posted them here throughout the season.  It's looking like today's total is 2.5".  Add that to last Tuesday's 2.6" for a 5-day total of 5.1".  I still hold out hope for an event of 4 or more before the season is over.  I would have to say that I do believe the whole region could score a 5 or 6 inch event within the next 3 weeks.  There's always hope.  What's did the 12z Euro look like for the next potential event?

I think another tough part for some of us is that with several of our "bigger" events we quickly lost the snow cover in the next day or two after despite the continuous cold.  Based on my reports - Dec 10-11 3.5" and gone in 2-3 days, Late January had 3 events in about 6 days totaling 8.6" and never had a snow depth over 4", 3" last monday-tuesday that was mostly gone by the time I got home tuesday evening, and now we shall see about tomorrow vs today's snow

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I made the same comment this morning that many of you are making now that it is frustrating to have weeks of below freezing temps and basically have very little to show for it.  I believe someone directed a post towards me that it most be miserable to get so worked up about not getting snow. I beileve penn man made the comment.  I just dropped it.  I feel all your pain when it comes to these nickle and dime events.

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Quick update...some of us around here got a bonus blob after it looked like we were done.  I managed to add another 0.3" to bring my storm total up to 2.8".  Temp has leveled off and has been steady at 24.5.  I'll do my meltdown shortly and get back with that and the storm ratio.  I would think with temps mostly in the teens during a good chunk of the storm, we should be looking at 15:1.  We'll see.

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Well guys, it's been an interesting day to say the least. I always find it fascinating that no matter how much we try, we cannot suppress our emotions, and are quick to make posts in the heat of the moment. Like the others have just said, Voyager, you don't have to apologize. I think that major kudos must go out to '93 Blizzard who made nothing but optimistic posts during the entire event. I was following his comments, and it was easy to see how positive he was.

Even after 55 "seasoned" years of life I have my frustration moments like everyone else around here. I even thought twice about whether I should delete my rare IMBY comments earlier today. I was trying to figure out why today's event was such an emotional trigger. I could only come up with the fact that it's been frigid around here for the past 8 straight days; we're living through weather history in the making with Harrisburg very likely having it's coldest February since records began (around 1888?); many of us have had nickel and dime events, which makes us "feel" like we are "owed" a big one; we're tired of watching the big cities getting creamed time-after-time; we know that the heart of winter is ending and snow chances will slowly decline as well.

I haven't been writing down my snow records although I've pretty much posted them here throughout the season. It's looking like today's total is 2.5". Add that to last Tuesday's 2.6" for a 5-day total of 5.1". I still hold out hope for an event of 4 or more before the season is over. I would have to say that I do believe the whole region could score a 5 or 6 inch event within the next 3 weeks. There's always hope. What's did the 12z Euro look like for the next potential event?

Thanks for the kind words.

This storm was like pulling teeth at times,

But I figured by the time the event played out,

It would be a decent storm for some folks in here.

The 12z Euro for next weekend showed a large storm

Coming up from the gulf coast region. This run it cut just west

Of the apps, but still brought 6 inches of snow to most of CTP

Before the change over. Heavy amount of QPF of well over 1 inch,

But lots of time to hopefully get a better track for us.

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