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Central PA & The Fringes - Mid-Winter 14/15


PennMan

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Now that's the public map. Doesn't seem to be going all in with latest guidance. I like that 1-3" south and east of I95. I like 2-4, 3-5" NW of that with 3-6" up to LNS. York, Adams and west should be good for storm for most, if not all snow. If Northern MD gets only 1-3", I'll be incredibly surprised.

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Saturday forecast for State College:

 

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

 

 And surprisingly no watch/advisory. I'm sure that's coming soon.

I see they bumped up their snow map a bit, and PBZ has warnings up for most of their area. Looking good.

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KISS OF DEATH!

 

Statement as of 3:10 PM EST on February 20, 2015

 


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 am Saturday to 9 am
EST Sunday...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow and freezing rain... which is in effect
from 11 am Saturday to 9 am EST Sunday.

* Locations... Lancaster and York counties.

* Hazard types... snow and freezing rain.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches... followed by a
coating of ice.

* Timing... snow will overspread the area during the mid day hours
on Saturday... and become heavy at times in the afternoon and
evening. Freezing rain may mix in with the snow during the late
evening.

* Impacts... hazardous travel from Saturday afternoon into Sunday
morning.

* Winds... becoming south 5 to 10 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Hazardous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Use caution if traveling. For the latest weather information... go
to weather.Gov/statecollege or monitor NOAA Weather Radio.

Report snow or ice accumulation to the National Weather Service
State College by sending an email to [email protected]...
posting to the NWS State College facebook Page... or tweet
@nwsstatecollege with the hashtag c... T... p... W... x.
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It's something that the surface low (weak as it is) is technically going to be tracking to our NW for this. Modest SW flow at 850mb but no closed low. Pretty decent looking overrunning set up but with no closed low it doesn't appear that it's going to be enough to advect in >0ºC 850 air for most of PA (except far southeast perhaps at the end). The result should be a nice hard hitting front end snowfall with any mixing limited to after the damage being done QPF wise.

 

I know I said a few days ago warmth was going to try to press into the northeast and it was likely going to lose.. and looks like that will be the case. At least it will warm up some for the storm though, instead of the frigid temps we have had this week. 

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not sure i'm buying what the nam is trying to sell us....seems to wet, cut the numbers in half and i'll beleive that.

 

The NAM was more amped this run which of course causes it to be wetter and warmer. I'm still waiting to see the 4km come out. It's actually doing well recently. It wouldn't take all that much for those heavy totals on that run to shift 25 miles further SE. We'll see. Horrible run for parts of York/Lancaster. Lots of ice verbatim.

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I was concerned a few days ago about low level trapped cold air for icing. Whoops. Biggest show of the indoor racing season at the farm show and once again bad weather will surround it.

The forecasts a few days ago were absolutely misleading though. If we end up with 6-8 inches in the burg, and were forecasted for 45 and rain only 2 days ago, that's no good.

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4km NAM shifted north with the heaviest snowfall. The big winners, verbatim, would be the Franklin, Adams, York and Lancaster counties, although Lancaster changes over to ZR at the end. There is no rain on this run in the whole area. The 850 column gets above the PA line, but it's pretty close to 0C for everyone except the extreme southern tier at 1C. ZR looks nasty for parts of MD, but again, this is just verbatim. I think the area with the best chance of a thumping snow would be west of I83, but a good thump looks pretty good for east of it. I'll have a final call tonight, but I like 5+" for many in the forum.

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I was concerned a few days ago about low level trapped cold air for icing. Whoops. Biggest show of the indoor racing season at the farm show and once again bad weather will surround it.

The forecasts a few days ago were absolutely misleading though. If we end up with 6-8 inches in the burg, and were forecasted for 45 and rain only 2 days ago, that's no good.

Planned on coming, not sure now.

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