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Central PA & The Fringes - Mid-Winter 14/15


PennMan

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I'm bored at work -- have code running -- so I took a look to see how February 2015 is doing in terms of mean temperature here in State College.  

 

Currently, the monthly mean temperature is 18.6 F.  

 

If we assume that the NWS point forecast for University Park verifies (and use 0z GFS MOS for the 28 Feb high and low) and take account of the fact that CO-OP observations are done at 12z (thus, some double-counting, so to speak, of cold nights), the 'final' mean temperature should be 16.8 F, which is a full degree below that of the coldest February on record here, 1979, which had a mean temperature of 17.8.  

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Got down to -10 lastnight. What a brutal week.

Sitting at 7 now.

Clearfield airport temperature sensor looks to be broken or something isn't right because it has been running much warmer than surroundings since the jump from -3 F to +5 F from 8 to 9pm last night...

 

For those looking for warmth... apparently it is currently 63 degrees in Beaver Falls PA thanks to the missing negative flag for C temp.

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Clearfield airport temperature sensor looks to be broken or something isn't right because it has been running much warmer than surroundings since the jump from -3 F to +5 F from 8 to 9pm last night...

 

For those looking for warmth... apparently it is currently 63 degrees in Beaver Falls PA thanks to the missing negative flag for C temp.

I noticed that as well.

The airport is usually a degree or so colder than i am.They have a little elevation on me.

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11:30 in the morning and its 4 degrees...unbelievable. ...and more snow and cold on its way. Anyone think this is worse than last winter?

Last winter i had continuous, solid snowcover from the first days of February until mid March. Unprecedented for my area. 33" of snow in February and brutal cold. This winter would be talked about for years...except that it's following last winter.

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Gotta say I'm not a fan of the precip hole that keeps showing up for true central pa.

 

Agreed. With most of the lower atmosphere having westerly to southwesterly flow, I'm wondering if downsloping is going to be a problem for those of us with higher terrain immediately to the west...

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This stretch is but the persistence of last winter was damn impressive. We've had a few weeks only, last year it was two or more months.

I don't know. It's been persistently below normal since the second week of January now. Let's tally it up at the end of March. But for now, looking at just JFM, and conveniently ignoring December (cooler last year than this year, but both above normal), and using the 120 year means:

 

For State College:

2014

Jan: -6.95

Feb: -4.03

Mar: -6.11

 

2015:

Jan: -4.04

Feb: -11.18 (projected)

Mar: ???

 

Clearly, 2015 is winning for JF. March will decide things.

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This stretch is but the persistence of last winter was damn impressive. We've had a few weeks only, last year it was two or more months.

I think the few warmer days that we had mixed in with the cold last January and into Feb helped make this year seem a little colder.  There were 4 days total last Jan/Feb that had highs below 20F at MDT... we have had 4 just this week... the reason we are chasing records is temps have been near or below normal for almost 2 months straight now... after the snow event Jan 6th (I think that's the right date) we have only hit the 40 degree mark 4 times with 42 being warmest of that... that helps to keep average temps down and allows for near record cold...

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Agreed. With most of the lower atmosphere having westerly to southwesterly flow, I'm wondering if downsloping is going to be a problem for those of us with higher terrain immediately to the west...

I agree... if you look at the 850 mb flow when there appears to be a hole in central PA's precip (hour 36 on the 12Z runs), there's very strong southwesterly winds off the Laurel Highlands. Also, I think dry surface air is causing problems. This cold air with its ridiculously low dew points doesn't want to budge and the high theta air simply glides overtop. The whole situation is quite unusual... It has the appearance of a cold air dam, but I'm not sure if it really is. I don't see a high. Snow on southerly winds, who woulda thunk?

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I don't know. It's been persistently below normal since the second week of January now. Let's tally it up at the end of March. But for now, looking at just JFM, and conveniently ignoring December (cooler last year than this year, but both above normal), and using the 120 year means:

 

For State College:

2014

Jan: -6.95

Feb: -4.03

Mar: -6.11

 

2015:

Jan: -4.04

Feb: -11.18 (projected)

Mar: ???

 

Clearly, 2015 is winning for JF. March will decide things.

Wow. Putting it in numbers .. that's hard to believe.

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No map yet.

Sent from my iPhone

 

I work with him for PennDot. I have his map for it and the excel file with the broken down details, but I'm not allowed to post or share them. I'll tell you he likes this possibly the biggest event so far snow wise before a flip. Haven't talked to him today yet to see if his ideas have changed with latest guidance.

 

Edit: This is his PennDot map I'm talking about. This is isn't his public map just to clarify.

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