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Central PA & The Fringes - Mid-Winter 14/15


PennMan

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If you want snow for Saturday and Saturday night, the models made great trends tonight. The LP out to the west coming in less amped helps. 850mb winds from the south coming in hot at 50-60kts with great lift ahead of the approaching warm front from the south heading into an arctic airmass will create a nice swath of moderate to heavy precip in the cold air in place. A good example of a WCB gone right if the models tonight are correct. 

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European looks to be a moderate to significant hit to most of the Commonwealth. 

 

Hour 42 -  0.1-0.25" western half of PA, 0.25-0.50" western PA west of a roughly a Cumberland, MD to Clearfield line, 0.5 - 0.75" far SW corner of PA.

 

Hour 48 - Broad 0.25-0.50 in most of PA except 0.1-0.25" in NW and SE corners

 

Hour 54 - 0.1-0.25" in Laurels/SW PA as well as LSV and NE PA and 0.25-0.5" in Philly region and all of NJ.

 

850s look generally safe for snow in PA throughout the event.

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European looks to be a moderate to significant hit to most of the Commonwealth. 

 

Hour 42 -  0.1-0.25" western half of PA, 0.25-0.50" western PA west of a roughly a Cumberland, MD to Clearfield line, 0.5 - 0.75" far SW corner of PA.

 

Hour 48 - Broad 0.25-0.50 in most of PA except 0.1-0.25" in NW and SE corners

 

Hour 54 - 0.1-0.25" in Laurels/SW PA as well as LSV and NE PA and 0.25-0.5" in Philly region and all of NJ.

 

850s look generally safe for snow in PA throughout the event.

850s don't seem to be the issue, the problem is below that...

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-5ºF here. Winds have settled and it's pretty clear so might really be able to bottom out.

 

The one Smethport mesowest station is reporting -22ºF and thats the coldest one I see in the CTP area currently. Station in Mercer just to the east of Hermitage in western PA is reporting -23ºF. Honorable mention to Erie International (KERI) reporting -15ºF currently. You know the lake's froze solid when you get that kind of a reading.

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Currently -6 here and -7/-17 at the airport—looks like the record of -8 might just fall. 

 

BTW - Have looked at just about every weather app out there over the years, and Weather Underground's apps have consistently remained among my favorites. They've just released a new one called "Storm" and it's a real gem on the iPad. Definitely my current favorite of all–by far. It's a nice culmination of all their prior experience in mobile device interface design and includes some great features. It's a real winner, imo.

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-2 here. Fell short of my goal of -4. Regardless, it was a brisk walk into the office this morning.

 

i had -1

6z NAM would be beautiful... yes please!

 

waiting to see what temps end up at 7am... pretty much only Philly above 0 in PA right now which is pretty impressive on Feb 20

looks like almost 10" doesn't it?

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i had -1

looks like almost 10" doesn't it?

wish we could trust the models at this range lol...

 

MDT still at 0 at 7am with a peak 6 hour low of 0... so of course we don't go under 0 when we expect to once again... I am at -3... winds just never died down enough for temps to crash like northwest PA

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Is that because the graphic only applies to the next 24 hours? Was created at 6:31 this morning. Don't think we're supposed to get anything accumulating until after sunrise or later tomorrow.

A lot of times they do their maps for 48hrs.

Edit: last night they put a snow map out that was good for 3 hours. That's a first.

post-2236-0-89453700-1424436503_thumb.jp

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wish we could trust the models at this range lol...

 

MDT still at 0 at 7am with a peak 6 hour low of 0... so of course we don't go under 0 when we expect to once again... I am at -3... winds just never died down enough for temps to crash like northwest PA

When i got up this morning at 5 i looked at MDT and saw they still had the goose egg and i said to my wife we didn't get a record. I figured those winds would hurt us, i was hoping they would have died down overnight and like you said they never did. They were still whipping when i came into work too.

 

I'd like to lock this baby down for Saturday, see if you can work on that.

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This morning's AFD for our area seems to indicate past experience is influencing the forecast more than the models:

 

"Short term /Saturday/... 

precipitation will overspread the area Saturday in response to a broad 
area of MDT-strong warm advection. A strong southwesterly low 
level jet...1-3 South Dakota above normal...is forecast to surge into the 
region during the day. We start off very cold so a good chunk of 
whatever falls will be snow...but the model qpf's are very 
dubious...especially the operational European model (ecmwf) which would result in 
most of my western zones seeing 6-10 inches of snow...which I 
can't ever remember happening with a parent low that should move 
up to our north and west."
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With a low of 0, it would take a high of 34 today or higher for Harrisburg to not move into 1st for coldest February today... Pittsburgh currently at 4th coldest... Not sure about State College rank but I know it is within a degree of the record now...

 

Harrisburg tied record low this morning, missed tying yesterday's by 1 degree but did tie lowest average temp for the 19th... record lowest average temp for the 20th is 11 so with an expected high of 15 we will break that for sure

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