Santa Clause Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'll take 40s and 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 welp pretty much all of 12z suite says this low will cut well west if it manages to amp up... as in west into Michigan... would have most of us with temps near or below 0 Saturday morning and into the 40s/50s by Sunday afternoon... would not be a good track for Boston area... First up though is holy cold for Friday morning... MDT has a very good shot at hitting -5 ... I hope I never experience a Jan 94 broken record though of -23! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 welp pretty much all of 12z suite says this low will cut well west if it manages to amp up... as in west into Michigan... would have most of us with temps near or below 0 Saturday morning and into the 40s/50s by Sunday afternoon... The idea of a cutter and a snow to rain scenario wouldn't bother me so much if it were a pattern changer to a spell of above normal weather, but it's not. Here's the temps for Sunday night through Tuesday... Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 8. Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 MDT has a very good shot at hitting -5 ... I hope I never experience a Jan 94 broken record though of -23! it was one of the few times in my life i understood what chilled to the bone meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The idea of a cutter and a snow to rain scenario wouldn't bother me so much if it were a pattern changer to a spell of above normal weather, but it's not. Here's the temps for Sunday night through Tuesday... Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 8. Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. That's what has me wondering if the models are even handling things correctly. If timing is slightly off on one or more of the components, how much will it change things over the next few runs? Could be slight changes or could be significantly large ones. I have not seen what 12z euro is doing at 500mb yet, but the other models have energy digging southward along the west coast Friday night to Saturday morning. Northern stream energy then swings into the Northcentral US on Saturday and grabs just a piece of that energy along west coast, leaving the rest behind. This is when the 12z runs now amplify this piece of energy to become Sunday's system that tracks well to the west. Then once through we are right back into the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Mmmm typically when it has rain, it's right and won't go back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 SPC snow squall parameter starting to look really nice for a good number of us as the band has now developed over western PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 All we can hope is that we do something like 40s and maybe 0.5" rain. With all the snow OTG and the ice in the Susky we can't afford a rapid melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 MDT has a very good shot at hitting -5 ... I hope I never experience a Jan 94 broken record though of -23! First off, my condolences on your loss. The January '94 cold snap was one of the most memorable weather events of my life. I was living in Albany, NY and we were under a snow emergency. My car wouldn't start and ended up getting towed by the city. I had to wait several days to pick it up because it wouldn't start in the brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Any updates on timing for squall? Hopefully it gets it's act together soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Suspicious of the warm up this weekend, only because of what we saw last year many times. The cold air was relentless to scour out and we were left with awful icing situations in Hershey when I lived there. I care this weekend because the farm show has a huge event we are covering called Motorama. Would like to see it warm up but again I remember how our temps never rose while areas north and east were in the 40s and we stillhad freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Any updates on timing for squall? Hopefully it gets it's act together soon. It's getting its act together quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That's what has me wondering if the models are even handling things correctly. If timing is slightly off on one or more of the components, how much will it change things over the next few runs? Could be slight changes or could be significantly large ones. I have not seen what 12z euro is doing at 500mb yet, but the other models have energy digging southward along the west coast Friday night to Saturday morning. Northern stream energy then swings into the Northcentral US on Saturday and grabs just a piece of that energy along west coast, leaving the rest behind. This is when the 12z runs now amplify this piece of energy to become Sunday's system that tracks well to the west. Then once through we are right back into the cold. I know we were sweating out the mixing line creeping north and far eastern New England was raining during the mid range leading up to our most recent event. That of course turned into an 8-10ºF fluff snow for the southern tier and dust for the northern tier. We also had crazy run to run changes considering the range with that as well, so I wouldn't write any options off attm. The big factor I see modeled attm is the positioning of high pressure to our east instead of northeast, that coupled with the strong high dropping into the north central from western/central Canada leaves us quite vulnerable for the low pressure to cut on us. Upper levels of this potential system don't look really particularly impressive, nothing closed at 500 or 700mb and a pretty weak 850 representation that is progged to go NW of the area but nothing thats going to drive >10ºC 850 temps over or anything. So if there's decent WAA precip well ahead we could certainly see a good front thump. The Euro certainly suggests as much, having >0.5" of front end frozen QPF for the NW 2/3's of the state and a bullseye of 1.0" frozen QPF in west-central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Mag any thoughts on squall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/RAD_KCCX/animauto.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Mag any thoughts on squall line? Looks like we have a couple different lines moving through. And the first line of squalls is here currently with visibilities to about 250-500 feet just like Saturday... wow!. What looks to be the main line is off to the west yet just arriving into Cambria County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 heavy snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wow looks like its getting it together just in time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Snow is picking up here as well. Glad to hear the report MAG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Quick 0.6" with that first squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 squall has arrived. Barley can see across the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Intensity wise not quite as strong as Saturday. Since I can actually make out some houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Two questions... First one: Will these snow squalls survive their trip across the mountains like they did on Saturday night, or is this set-up different? Second one: After this weekends possible rain event, we go back into the deep freeze for a good portion of next week. Is there ANYTHING on the horizon that would indicate we break from this current pattern and get some mild weather? Per the GFS, is appears that cold weather will be the rule through at least March 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 In follow-up to Voyager's first question - will this squall not just survive the mountains, but will there also be no random crap that steals energy from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Here comes #2, def more wind vs the first squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Here comes #2, def more wind vs the first squall. Agree. Total snow so far is a little over 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 In follow-up to Voyager's first question - will this squall not just survive the mountains, but will there also be no random crap that steals energy from it? According to the NAM, the line should begin to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Agree. Total snow so far is a little over 2 inches. Think I have somewhere around an inch, intensity wise that first squall had heavier snow with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 First squall here in State College was probably about the same intensity as Saturday, but only lasted a few minutes at that intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Think I have somewhere around an inch, intensity wise that first squall had heavier snow with it. Looks like the 2 squalls may merge. Also snow is picking up a bit. Seems to be some enhancement according to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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