TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There was a storm back in the late '80s where I was at 3 degrees at 6am and 34 and rain before noon. It happens more often and more quickly than people think. I think Eric Horst said once that warm air waits for nothing. (or something like that) I think the Chesapeake Bay really screws Lancaster over when it comes to warm air. It just surges up off the water. Sorry for your loss, Canderson. May you have a peaceful day tomorrow traveling and with your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think the Chesapeake Bay really screws Lancaster over when it comes to warm air. It just surges up off the water. Sorry for your loss, Canderson. May you have a peaceful day tomorrow traveling and with your family. Don't know if anyone saw today but ice is forming on the Bay. That is when you know it has been cold! A steady breeze has been blowing down the hillside here all evening so I am currently sitting at 16 degrees while MDT is down to 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Don't know if anyone saw today but ice is forming on the Bay. That is when you know it has been cold! A steady breeze has been blowing down the hillside here all evening so I am currently sitting at 16 degrees while MDT is down to 9. Nice! I think there are a couple of times when "Bay Effect" snow has occurred off of the Chesapeake too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Tomorrow's squall looks like it's going to be slower-moving than the last one. Could last for 30 minutes to an hour over a given location. Same intensity? or even close would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Same intensity? or even close would be great. I don't know that we'll be able to say for sure until it develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Same intensity? or even close would be great. I think it may be a bit less organized. Saturday's event had a more intense front with strong PVA at 500 mb and higher values of 850 mb frontogenesis than currently forecast. However, low-level lapse rates are similar and the depth of the less stable moist layer actually looks a bit higher (up to 550 mb). I do agree with Mallow that the squall(s) that forms will have a slower effective motion given the direction of propagation having a greater component along the band axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 CTP calling for a low of -5 Thursfsy night. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm down to +1 this morning. GFS=rainstorm. Showing mid 40 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Sorry to hear of your loss Canderson and safe travels tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The storm this weekend should not be written off yet. The 0z Euro, per Weatherbell maps, shows a WEAKENING surface low from 1004 to 1010 moving from southern Indiana to northern OH into SW NY. It brings about 1 inch of QPF to CTP region. Snow map produces 4 to 6 inches even down into the LSV. So even with this track, the first half or so of the event would be snow. With the weakening low, and not some bombing out low, I find it very hard to believe we torch here with such an extreme cold airmass in place in front. I think we go from to snow to ice to rain maybe at the tail end of this. Still lots of time to see improvements over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 CTP calling for a low of -5 Thursfsy night. Crazy. Wishing you the best today and over the next few weeks. Take care... Got down to 1 at home this morning. Wasn't expecting it to be this cold today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm down to +1 this morning. GFS=rainstorm. Showing mid 40 here... There's really nothing from keeping this from going west. Scary thing is if this thing is loaded with moisture, what is going to happen up in New England if they get a lot of rain along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Somebody say "Mid 40's"?!? Upshot: I'm so, so very cold. I'm ready for it to not be teeth-chattering cold. Even Saturday's high of 28 will feel amazing. Sucks: The snow will likely be replaced with mud. Which will then freeze when it gets cold again next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 according to the 6 hour min temp part of the 12z ob at MDT the lowest temp was -18.3 C which would be -1 F... of all mornings Harrisburg may have finally broken the 0 degree mark... while it is 9 degrees at my house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah MDT came in at -1, funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hit -3° overnight before clouds started moving in this morning. Was up to 3° at 7:45. So here in Bellefonte we have a chance of 7 straight days with lows at or below 0°. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday already down, I think tomorrow morning might be the hardest to achieve with the wind blowing, but the forecast is -1°. Friday morning should be solidly subzero, and the forecast is -1° for Saturday morning. That's just crazy for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 My wife's grandmother passed away 30 or so mins ago. Plz keep my wife and her family in your thoughts all. Tomorrow will be a day of a lot of traveling, Can anyone at all tell me timing of these potential squalls? We'll be driving to/from Harrisburg, Baltimore, Carlisle and Philadelphia all at some point tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Sorry for your loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hit -3° overnight before clouds started moving in this morning. Was up to 3° at 7:45. So here in Bellefonte we have a chance of 7 straight days with lows at or below 0°. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday already down, I think tomorrow morning might be the hardest to achieve with the wind blowing, but the forecast is -1°. Friday morning should be solidly subzero, and the forecast is -1° for Saturday morning. That's just crazy for this area. Pretty impressive for sure. 10 degrees felt almost comfortable this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 3 degrees here this morning for the low. For the weekend storm to me it looks like the 850 temps have gotten cooler with today's 6z run. But the precipitation looks like a mess with the GFS being the worse. Wonder how many changes between now & the weekend :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 School is letting out 2 hrs early here due to the impending snow squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 3 degrees here this morning for the low. For the weekend storm to me it looks like the 850 temps have gotten cooler with today's 6z run. But the precipitation looks like a mess with the GFS being the worse. Wonder how many changes between now & the weekend :-) I was looking through the verification page through HPC yesterday and it looked like it took the euro until within 72-96 hours to handle both 500mb and surface pattern close to correctly for the sunday night event and gfs 48-72 hours... I am interested to see what 12z euro does with event today. I do think the GFS is too warm with surface temps. Right now I could see this being a big over running event for mountains (Altoona-State College) with snow to ice for LSV but have low confidence in what models are currently showing. Both the GFS and Euro ensemble means looked slightly colder than operational runs for last nights 0z runs, but track of low still too far west for favorable significant wintry conditions. A few weekends ago when it looked like we would have southerly winds and take a run at the 50 degree mark, we ended up with light easterly flow and highs only in the mid 30s here in LSV. Anything similar and we could see significant ice after initial snow if rates cant keep temps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 A few of ours are too, smart call in my book. You don't want to have any buses running in that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 can someone post times the different models come out, i just deleted it by mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So driving to BWI for a 3:30 pickup then back to Carlisle then to HBG. We actually might be able to beat the squall to Carlisle then wait it out, looks like it's around 6-7ish for it to hit over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 A few of ours are too, smart call in my book. You don't want to have any buses running in that stuff. Agreed. I know i would'nt want my son on a bus if its anything like it was saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 can someone post times the different models come out, i just deleted it by mistake. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41984-weather-links/?p=2761630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It looks like some light snow is developing over the western counties now. This event looks to be shaping up somewhat similar to Saturday--some light snow preceding the front, then a quick dump of snow during the squall. I'm pretty excited to have another chance to see some good rates...the Valentines day event was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 DJR thanks for your thoughts! An over running event would be a good for us? With a more amplified event it would be pumping more warm air into the area correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm down to +1 this morning. GFS=rainstorm. Showing mid 40 here... Bottomed out at -3 sometime after I left for work. Nice rebound though. It's currently 29, but was as high as 30 sometime before I got home. I see there's some snow in western PA, but here we have wall to wall blue skies and nice warm sunshine still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 welp pretty much all of 12z suite says this low will cut well west if it manages to amp up... as in west into Michigan... would have most of us with temps near or below 0 Saturday morning and into the 40s/50s by Sunday afternoon... would not be a good track for Boston area... First up though is holy cold for Friday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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