Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA & The Fringes - Mid-Winter 14/15


PennMan

Recommended Posts

Joe...the nam precip graphics show MDT with less than 0.25" total qpf for tomorrow night's event. What data are you looking at??

Maybe you misread it and it is actually 0.21" ?

I fat thumbed the wrong number on my phone, sorry! :/

CTP going with 3-5 for the Mason-Dixon counties and one tier north it seems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I fat thumbed the wrong number on my phone, sorry! :/

CTP going with 3-5 for the Mason-Dixon counties and one tier north it seems.

 

Well, I think you nailed it the other day. This appears to be a 22 and south event. CTP's snow map has 3-4 from 22 south and 4-6 from turnpike and south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got down to -2 it looks like at Millersville. No record, but not bad at all. I think a solid 3-6" south of Rt 30 and 1-3" from I80 to turnpike. 2-4" from turnpike to north side of Rt 30. Cold powder and not a single flake will be wasted. Enjoy everyone

I had -2 as well. Looks like a wintry week with storm tonight, possible squalls Wednesday, then another shot of artic air to finish the week. Should be good times

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yessir. Snow will be of the powder variety too. It'll actually look and feel winter down here for once :)

Love the powder. I've managed to hold onto this 2" of a glacier snowpack the last couple weeks that's kept the winter feel going. My highest snow depth has only been 5" this season but hasn't dropped below 2" since Jan. 22nd. Pretty cool

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i had -1 this morning at 530 when i let the dogs out.

another light fluffy snow for Tuesday, what its gonna be, like 18 or 19:1?

Climo for our sub-fourm is 12:1, with 15:1 in the lake effect region.  You really wanted the 850 temps to be -10 to -20.

 

This presentation is part of my snow forecasting folder on my computer.  Next to the KU books, (autographed personally by the authors :nerd: ) this is my go-to.  Link:  http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf

 

Take note for this storm Slide 30.

 

What we need for big snow and good ratios:

 

1.)  850 temps around -10 to -15 celcius (CHECK)

 

2.)  Strengthening 850 low (KINDA, at the very least you need a closed 850 low)

 

3.)  Your region is to the LEFT of the 850 low track (CHECK, but we want to be within 90 nautical miles, and we are further away.  Still, no question of precip type).

 

4.)  Little to no warming along, to hamper the snow growth region (CHECK).

 

 

I also like Slide 39 and 40 (The Cook Method & Garcia Technique).  For establishing the most likely / highest snowfall potential.  It lines up well with the currently NWS thinking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

-32 looks to be the coldest report received by CTP way up in Warren county. A solid 2-3" event as displayed on CTPs snow map would be nice to keep the snowpack going strong.

yep, -32 was the coldest coop report I could find (Chandlers Valley) with Kane recording a -28

 

***Only 10 degrees from the all time -42 mark.  Impressive***

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per CTP:

 

 

 

2-16-2015: 620am EST
Extreme Cold Perspective: The PA state record low is -42° at Smethport (McKean County) on 1/5/1904. Low Temperatures this morning in the same area are -25° to -35°F.

 

In other words, we came within 7 degrees of breaking the statewide record low for Pennsylvania.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Easily the coldest I've experienced here. -14.5° in Bellefonte this morning. Frozen pipes and no running water at work.

 

Well, woke up to no running water here this morning.  There was a water main break that is affecting our entire subdivision.  Don't know when it will be repaired.  Oh joy.

 

Went to bed at 1:30 with a temperature of +1F and only managed a low of -1F.  Winds barely went calm for a short time around 5:00am and that is when the temp dropped to reach the low.

 

If we get the 3-5" NWS is forecasting, then with a deeper snowpack the next arctic blast may produce negative temps below -1F here I would think.

 

I'm hoping for something more than 3" since that has been my highest single storm total for the entire winter.  I've had like 6 2" events here since November.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks. But it's the same resource - just a different view - which is easily changed. My question is does anyone think this in its entirety is a great resource, not-so-much, etc.

Yes it is a good resource, IMO.  A view like this helps you look at the way different weather offices are forecasting and working the timing of the storm.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...