pasnownut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I have this link book marked. It's the water vapor satellite for the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. There is a bit of some southern stream moisture injected in, as you can see the northward component of movement over Texas: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.htmlT Thanks. I've seen the water vapor loop for this one....looking more long lead/pattern change. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'm based out of Hazleton, but I drive for A&S Kinard, and get down to your neck of the woods quite often. It's been pretty cool as well to see the change from Hazleton, where there was nearly a 12 inch snowpack to next to nothing on the ground in the York/Hanover/Lancaster area. Fixed.... For now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gust just hid 56. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Comparing the IR satellite to the models, I think the cutoff IS a bit further east than the GFS and Euro, especially the GFS. But we're only talking like 20 miles. Also, it seems like the bigger difference between the GFS/Euro at 500hPa might be the ridge axis orientation along the west coast. The Euro has it more narrow, slightly more amplified, and vertically-oriented, while the GFS has it broader and tilted slightly from northwest to southeast. The Euro's orientation allows the northern-stream energy digging over Idaho to be a bit further west, which I think accounts for most of the differences we see with the rest of the storm's evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Mallow, thanks for the analysis. At this point, would you favor one solution over the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Comparing the IR satellite to the models, I think the cutoff IS a bit further east than the GFS and Euro, especially the GFS. But we're only talking like 20 miles. Also, it seems like the bigger difference between the GFS/Euro at 500hPa might be the ridge axis orientation along the west coast. The Euro has it more narrow, slightly more amplified, and vertically-oriented, while the GFS has it broader and tilted slightly from northwest to southeast. The Euro's orientation allows the northern-stream energy digging over Idaho to be a bit further west, which I think accounts for most of the differences we see with the rest of the storm's evolution. I noticed that when looking at the water vapor loop that Joe posted... the trough axis is concerning to me, and while I hope the Euro can verify, I'm concerned at the progressive nature of the pattern w/ no blocking mechanism for this to slow down and turn the corner....hence a "southern slider" as it was labeled the other day in the mid atlantic forum. Still think that has merit. BIG noontime runs today, as they are now catching up to the leading disturbance being the main player...not the second one. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Bout as bad as it gets in Central PA this morning in the cold weather department, what a nasty wind. Think it bottomed out around -4 or -5ºF. Wonder if the wind settles down enough tonight to allow for temps to get ridiculous in the normal cold spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Comparing the IR satellite to the models, I think the cutoff IS a bit further east than the GFS and Euro, especially the GFS. But we're only talking like 20 miles. Also, it seems like the bigger difference between the GFS/Euro at 500hPa might be the ridge axis orientation along the west coast. The Euro has it more narrow, slightly more amplified, and vertically-oriented, while the GFS has it broader and tilted slightly from northwest to southeast. The Euro's orientation allows the northern-stream energy digging over Idaho to be a bit further west, which I think accounts for most of the differences we see with the rest of the storm's evolution. The 00z Euro forecast 500hPa height at KBOI (Boise) for 12z was 567 Dm. The 06z GFS forecast was 568 Dm (though the 00z GFS had a forecast of 567 Dm) . The radiosonde measured the height at 567 Dm. However, for KLAS (Las Vegas), the GFS is right and the Euro is too low by 1 Dm. And for KSLC (Salt Lake City), the Euro is too low by 2 Dm, but so is the GFS. For KLKN (Elko), the GFS is right and the Euro is too low by 1 Dm. For KOTX (Spokane), both models are right. In KSLE (Salem), the GFS was too low by 1 Dm, but the Euro was too low by 2 Dm. In KUIL (Quillayute), the Euro and 06z GFS were too low by 1 Dm, and the 00z GFS was too low by 2 Dm. So... I guess I'd say in the southwest US, the GFS is doing slightly better... but in the northwest US, it's hard to say either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I should've skipped the post made by Joe... Currently 3.0 with the wind howling...WCs dipping below -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 the trough axis is concerning to me, and while I hope the Euro can verify, I'm concerned at the progressive nature of the pattern w/ no blocking mechanism for this to slow down and turn the corner.... The 12z NAM looks like it wants to TRY to turn the corner slightly, but it happens just a little too late for Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 My general thought is this has plenty of room to shift further north. Sure anything can happen but often models tend to over model confluence and the precip shield tends to be more expansive come game time than modeled with many of these systems. Last March the models under modeled confluence and the storms actually verified further south with the best precip. I like the trends during the last 24 hours and a small nudged north puts many of us in the game for a solid hit. My largest snow was 5 inches in November so anything above that would be a major victory this season. We have been in a penny and nickle pattern here all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Models have routinely shifted 100 miles within 6 hours of precip falling. LOTS of time with this one. Also it's incredibly cold, easily the coldest it's been here since 2006. That wind, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jim Cantore is a thundersnow magnet. He had it again in Boston overnight and his reaction here is hilarious!!! His 4th was 1/2 mile from my house in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Canadian is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 His 4th was 1/2 mile from my house in 2011. I've always loved watching Cantore since I was old enough to really take an interest in meteorology. The guy has a passion for weather and isn't afraid to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Canadian is north Unfortunately, some of that precip disappears as it moves up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Gfs more amped and further north. LSV looks to be getting into the good stuff. Game on for a good part of our subforum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Bring it on - we need snow to go along with this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jimmy C sure loves his thunder snow! Good to see that much enthusiasm. Glad LSV is getting more into the snow. Everyone down that way is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Looking at GFS it pretty much has whole state .1 to .25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Everyone is 0.10 to 0.25 on the GFS - further south you go, the closer to .25 you are. The line basically is on the MD/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Voyager, I got you beat, I am 53... I picked this forum because of the lack of drama. 7f here and bright sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 .6 here on the home therm.....just ridiculously cold. I'm guessing for my suppression for the storm with this extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 WCs threatening -20 now... Tomorrow's record low for KAVP is -5. Got to think we can make a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, it's frightening cold out there. Ended up trying to sweep/shove our driveway and ended not feeling any of my exposed face. Wind still cranking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Good trends so far at 12z. Lots of room for a slight north trend like we've seen all year. Over the years in this type of set up, we tend to do better here when the precip shield is moving north east from Tennessee and Kentucky into WV and then in to PA. I like where we stand right now, and I think we have a chance at a 6 in. storm in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 We might see another 25 - 40 mile bump north over the next two model runs, but this is a turnpike and points south event. No real blocking to slow this down and get the storm cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I'd say south of the turnpike especially PA/MD border will do well. I don't think much north of there, esp with dry air involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 UKMET looks pretty good again, I'd say PSUHazelton would approve 42hr 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Voyager, I got you beat, I am 53... I picked this forum because of the lack of drama. 7f here and bright sunny. We undoubtedly have the best forum in the east as far as good people and getting along well together. Sure we all b**ch and moan about the lack of getting what we'd like to get (myself included) from time to time, but we all get along, and understand each others frustrations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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