NortheastPAWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yup. You guys fall directly in the middle of those outputs. Very cold 850's and surface temps for your area as well. Fine powder Excellent...even with just 12:1 ratios that'd turn out a healthy, moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just looked at the 850's again and I just realized I wasn't cold enough. 850 temp at storm height in LNS was -11. Wow. -15 to -20 along I80 corridor. Holy smokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I just looked at the 850's again and I just realized I wasn't cold enough. 850 temp at storm height in LNS was -11. Wow. -15 to -20 along I80 corridor. Holy smokes Yea this would be a frigid snowstorm verbatim haha, might even be too cold for optimal snow ratios in the north depending on where the best lift is. Still would be high ratio stuff either way. I'm curious to see some of the other Euro products whenever I get the full thing here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Yea this would be a frigid snowstorm verbatim haha, might even be too cold for optimal snow ratios in the north depending on where the best lift is. Still would be high ratio stuff either way. I'm curious to see some of the other Euro products whenever I get the full thing here soon.Same here. Yeah. This was a nice turn of events for the Commonwealth. We have to be getting close to some kind of consensus right now as to who gets what, when and how much. I love the strides the Foreign models took into making this a legitimate event for basically everyone in the state. Hopefully our American brethren follow suit in the next few runs and we can start ironing out more details in the mesoscale side of things. I think the area in the state with the best shot at a significant snowfall is down here in the southern tier and that's only because we would have more QPF to work with and a better shot at enhanced lift being closer to the proximity of the surface and 850 mb low. That doesn't mean that up to I80 can't get in on the fun, just a lower opportunity to walk away with the greatest output. On a side note, I cannot sleep with this wind!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z Euro snow map per the EuroWx site gives 6-9 inches for the LSV, which I think factors in ratios. Per Weatherbell, the snow map shows 4-6 inches for the LSV. The 0z Euro Ensemble mean and control both had similar low tracks and snow amounts were in the same range as the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 00Z Euro text for Tuesday at KUNV is 4.7" with 18:1 and 850 temp of -15. Followed by another 4.2" for the weekend. One thing for sure is there will be little if any melting during the entire period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Currently 4 with a -18 windchill. Be safe Sunday, everyone. I have to be outside for a bit and will be covering every bit of skin I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Currently -3.3 at my place and -4 at the airport with -23 windchill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 0z and 6z GFS are basically the same and mainly south of PA, Is this going to be the one time that it's south and stays south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Currently 4 with a -18 windchill. Be safe Sunday, everyone. I have to be outside for a bit and will be covering every bit of skin I can. I got 3 here. Crazy wind gusts,wow. Sorry to hear of your wife's grandma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jim Cantore is a thundersnow magnet. He had it again in Boston overnight and his reaction here is hilarious!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I got 3 here. Crazy wind gusts,wow. Sorry to hear of your wife's grandma. Down to 3 here now too - Cap City airport too. I slept with earplugs, made a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Jim Cantore is a thundersnow magnet. He had it again in Boston overnight and his reaction here is hilarious!!! That's looks like my reaction with Thundersnow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 -3 here this morning. Feels like -25 About time to go cleanup some snow. Mag the past storms where some models have been struggling the UKMET hasn't been doing to bad. Lets see how much wiggle the models have in them yet. Alex, This is probably one time the Boston people will be ok not getting much snow. Even down south is getting in the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Had a gust to 47mph so far. Low hit 1. Cashtown fire dept. ran 4 calls since 11:30 last night including a chimney fire, trapaline into a house, vehicle accident assist to Gettysburg and a structure assist to Arendtsville. Long night. Time for a nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Encouraging words; we'll see how today's trends go .... PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 313 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2015 MIDDLE-LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST... MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AS WELL AS HIGHER PROBABILITIES TO THE SNOW AXIS FROM PARTS OF MISSOURI EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH-TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO ICE THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ALSO POSSIBLE IF THE NEW LOW TRACKS VERIFY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES SUCH AS ARCTIC AIR HELPING TO RETARD THE NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS THE COMPLEXITIES OF MID-LEVEL BANDING AND ROLE OF CONVECTION...ADJUSTMENTS OVERALL ARE MODEST BUT LESS CONSERVATIVE THAT WOULD PURELY BE SUGGESTED FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONE. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN LESS THAN AVERAGE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON TO BE CAUTIOUS OF HUGE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. THEREFORE...THE LATEST SNOW/ICE PROBABILITIES ARE WEIGHTED 50 TO 75 PERCENT TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS...WITH THE REST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MESSAGING PURPOSES AND TO MINIMIZE THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF A FLIP-FLOP SHOULD FUTURE RUNS CHANGE THEIR TUNE. THE RESULT IS LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH A BROADER AREA OF 4 INCH PROBABILITIES SURROUNDING IT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND BRUSHES THE NORTHEAST COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 That's looks like my reaction with Thundersnow. Sent from my iPhone Love his passion for weather....always have liked Jim's on air presence. I didnt get to do any cartwheels from thundersnow last night, but sounds like some in Harrisburg did. Good for them. Looking at the overnight runs, it appears that those of us in the snow starved capital of Lancaster may get to do cartwheels in cold powder on Tuesday. Sounds like the north trend has commenced once again, and a general moderate event looking more likely in the LSV possibly up to I-80. just needs a coulple ticks further north and could be a good one. Looking forward to todays model runs. I'm glad to see some of those that said south...no chance...blah blah blah are already chewing on some crow in the Mid Atlantic forum. I say that in jest as we are all lovers of weather, but I'm not a fan of absolutism. Mother Nature ALWAYS holds the high hand....despite what some may think. To me, Tuesday is just another example of seasonal trends, and not getting off the horse until something changes. Heres to a couple more ticks north (although unlikely - with the swings we've seen...possible.) Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Encouraging words; we'll see how today's trends go .... You're down in Maryland, so they might be just a bit more encouraging to you than they are to me...at this point. What are YOUR thoughts? Can this tick more northward so as to include the Central and Eastern PA folks in at least a moderate (6 inch) event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 -4 at the airport. It is awful out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 -4 at the airport. It is awful out there. basking in the sun here in Ephrata...+4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT GRADUALLY WILL SHIFT EAST AND SHEAR OUT INTO THE BASE OF THE DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE FAVORED. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 You're down in Maryland, so they might be just a bit more encouraging to you than they are to me...at this point. What are YOUR thoughts? Can this tick more northward so as to include the Central and Eastern PA folks in at least a moderate (6 inch) event? Okay kids for the record: I live in New Salem York County. I work in Gaithersburg, MD and to avoid getting flamed by Ian, Zywts, etc. I put my work location in my profile. Whenever I post in this forum it's about the PA folks. With that in mind, this storm is a Rt. 22 and south storm, IMO. The northern branch of the jet stream is going to dominate for the next 10 - 14 days across the CONUS. In order for a plowable snowstorm (4"+) to make it into PA, we are going to need a complete piece of energy from the subtropical jet to get ejected into the Gulf of Mexico. Having it come out as pieces one at a time is no good for these parts, it will just get sheared apart. The depiction on the 00z / 06z model guidance represents a clear northward tendency because the Baja Low is now being modeled to completely eject. If someone held a gun to my head right now, I would forecast 3" - 5" south of the turnpike, and 1" - 3" from Rt. 22 to the turnpike. We need that coastal low to be about 4 mb deeper and about 50 - 75 miles northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Okay kids for the record: I live in New Salem York County. I work in Gaithersburg, MD and to avoid getting flamed by Ian, Zywts, etc. I put my work location in my profile. Whenever I post in this forum it's about the PA folks. Well, I'm not one of the kids. I'm 47 and probably one of the older members in this sub-forum, but no offense taken. I didn't know you lived in PA still, I actually thought you were a MD transplant FROM Pennsylvania. Anyway, with that out of the way, thanks for responding. While I'm not a snow lover (really? Who would have thunk it...lol) I'd hate to waste all this brutal cold on nickel and dime events, and miss out in one direction or another. I'd really like to see at least one decent storm as payoff for suffering through the extreme temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks Joe. Do you see any signs of southern stream getting more active? I read in somewhere here (Don S.?) that the southern stream should start to awaken. Would that be because of a shortening of the wavelengths as we head into spring, or is there a split flow (or something else) that might be taking shape? Your thoughts. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, I'm not one of the kids. I'm 47 and probably one of the older members in this sub-forum, but no offense taken. I didn't know you lived in PA still, I actually thought you were a MD transplant FROM Pennsylvania. Anyway, with that out of the way, thanks for responding. While I'm not a snow lover (really? Who would have thunk it...lol) I'd hate to waste all this brutal cold on nickel and dime events, and miss out in one direction or another. I'd really like to see at least one decent storm as payoff for suffering through the exteme temperatures. Don't worry, I'm not trying to be condescending, it's just my dry humor. I'm actually from the City of Philadelphia (Manayunk), went to Millersville for school and now work in MD. For a time I lived in Carroll County, but moved back here because my wife works in Harrisburg. The commute is hell everyday, but it's awesome to see the difference in weather from DC Metro to York County. When we had the November snow last fall, we only had 2" at work, but 5" at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 -5 I thought it was supposed to be cold today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Thanks Joe. Do you see any signs of southern stream getting more active? I read in somewhere here (Don S.?) that the southern stream should start to awaken. Would that be because of a shortening of the wavelengths as we head into spring, or is there a split flow (or something else) that might be taking shape? Your thoughts. Nut I have this link book marked. It's the water vapor satellite for the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. There is a bit of some southern stream moisture injected in, as you can see the northward component of movement over Texas: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Bottomed out at -6.5 around 7 am, now all the way up to -4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 but it's awesome to see the difference in weather from DC Metro to York County. When we had the November snow last fall, we only had 2" at work, but 5" at home. I'm based out of Hazleton, but I drive for A&S Kinard, and get down to your neck of the woods quite often. It's been pretty cool as well to see the change from Hazleton, where there was nearly a 12 inch snowpack to next to nothing on the ground in the York/Hanover area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 09z SREFS have warning criteria (5" - 7") snow for the Mason-Dixon counties. 12z / 18z runs will be the money runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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