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FORECAST CONTEST: 2/14-15/2015 Storm


SR Airglow

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We tried this with the last event and it seemed like people enjoyed it, so we'll do it again for this one and hopefully we'll get some more people to join in on the fun.

 

The official rules and scoring guidelines are below, but basically, your goal is to forecast the amount of snow that falls at some of the major climate and reporting stations in our region, as well as the jackpot amount and location. I think it's a fun way to both quantify your thoughts and see how accurate you were, and it's definitely made me a better regionwide forecaster as a result. If you want to give it a try, leave a post in this thread with your predictions for each of the stations and the jackpot amount/location by 1201 PM Saturday and I'll add it all up when the event is over(I've got a program that does all the calculations and scoring so it's a simple task) and let you all know how you did. 

 

 

Inaugural AMWX NE Snowfall Forecast Contest Official Rules

 

Goal: Earn as few points as you can by predicting snowfall as close to the actual number as possible.


How does it work?
Below is the list of stations that will participate in the contest. 
ALB
BTV
PWM

GYX
BOS

BOX
ORH
BDL
BDR

Also, for a bonus

Jackpot amount

Jackpot location(Must be a city, state combo or the scoring program will reject it and you will be disqualified from the bonus).

 

How do you get points? (This is a bad thing, you don’t want points!)
For each event, submit an exact guess for each station by the deadline posted. You will get three points for every inch you bust, high or low, rounded to the nearest tenth of an inch. If calls are submitted after the deadline, you will be charged a penalty of 10% of your subtotal score per hour the call is late, no exceptions.

If you do not make a prediction for a station, you will be charged the highest differential of any of the stations that you did make guesses for.

If a station does not report to NWS and it is clear that they received accumulation, I will use an average of the three PNS reports geographically closest to the missing station.

If a station is clearly over or under reported, I will accept an observation from a known poster on any weather forum or a series of nearby observations refuting it from a PNS. It must be a poster who is known to be legitimate, and you must post the post/observation  in this thread. I will not be reviewing reports, you must bring them to my attention.

How can you lose points?(Which is a GOOD thing!)

Perfect: If you guess exactly right on a station (defined as within .1” either way), you will get 2 points removed from your score.


Jackpot: Every person should choose an amount that they think will be the jackpot, as well as a location where they think it will be(City/Town name and state preferred). This is for all New England/Northeast NWS offices, that is, ALY, BTV, BOX, GYX, OKX, PHI, and CAR (Any part of these offices CWA’s is acceptable, including if it falls outside of New England).

Points can be removed as follows:
The person closest to the jackpot total, high or low, will receive a 5 point deduction from their score.
The person closest to the jackpot location will receive a 5 point deduction from their score.

 

 

Please ask any questions you may have, and good luck!
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ALB -- This one is Albany. I know this one. -- 3"
BTV -- Burlington, Vermont? Two for two! -- 2"
PWM -- Pwimmouth. I'm thinking Pwimmouth.
-- 17"

GYX -- This is where the Steve live. -- 17"
BOS -- Airport Upon Sea, Massachusetts
-- 7"

BOX -- Taunton. Did you think you would trick me? -- 6"
ORH -- This one is Will's house in Worcester. -- 6"
BDL -- No clue -- 3"
BDR -- Probably not even real
-- 4.5"

Also, for a bonus

Jackpot amount: You used a banned word -- 30"

Jackpot location: You are now banned -- Brunswick, ME

 

I must say with Maine and NH in the game more than anyone, it seems logical to include stations like Bangor, for instance.

 

Also I got 7/9 right so I deserve snacks.

 

EDIT: I actually participated.

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ALB -- This one is Albany. I know this one.

BTV -- Burlington, Vermont? Two for two!

PWM -- Pwimmouth. I'm thinking Pwimmouth.

GYX -- This is where the Steve live.

BOS -- Airport Upon Sea, Massachusetts

BOX -- Taunton. Did you think you would trick me?

ORH -- This one is Will's house in Worcester.

BDL -- No clue

BDR -- Probably not even real

Also, for a bonus

Jackpot amount: You used a banned word

Jackpot location: You are now banned

 

I must say with Maine and NH in the game more than anyone, it seems logical to include stations like Bangor, for instance.

 

Also I got 7/9 right so I deserve snacks.

:lol:

You win, everyone else is now playing for second.

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How does it work?

Below is the list of stations that will participate in the contest. 

ALB 2

BTV 3

PWM 15

GYX 13

BOS 9

BOX 7

ORH 6.5

BDL 4.5

BDR 3.5

Also, for a bonus

Jackpot amount 29

Jackpot location(Must be a city, state combo or the scoring program will reject it and you will be disqualified from the bonus).

Eastport, ME

 

Zeus, I considered changing the stations, but decided to keep it the same so that at the end of the winter, if I decide to total up season-long stats, it's a level field for all events. 

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Congratulations to ma blizzard for taking the win in this contest! Overall, across the board, scores were significantly higher(that is, worse) than the last one, which is to be expected considering the massive bust at a couple of stations. Unsurprisingly, no one really called that(Every single player had double digits at PWM and so took at least a 20 point hit there).

 

The jackpot was in Robbinston, ME, 13 miles away from the majority of your choices(Eastport, ME), but BristolRIWx was just 8 miles away with his choice of Pembrooke, ME and therefore got the 5 point deduction there. ruNNAWayIcEberG got the jackpot amount of 28 right on the nose and as a result got a 5 point deduction as well.

 

Here are the final numbers from the stations, the final results are attached below.

 

 ALB 5.9
 BTV 2.2
 PWM 2.3 
 GYX 2.3
 BOS 16.2
 BOX 14.1
 ORH 10.1
 BDL 5.3
 BDR 1.3
 
Thanks to all who played!
post-8652-0-53380400-1424144280_thumb.pn

 

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