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Upstate NY/North Country and Canadian/VT Borders Mid Feb. 2015 through end of Winter


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Entire West Half of Lake Ontario has exploded with Radar Returns. Maybe the King was on to something. Minor flurries happening in Irondequoit as of now. OBVIOUSLY, i'll keep you all informed. Compulsively so.

 

Snowfall rates look pretty heavy near Niagara Falls on the traffic cams.

 

http://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/index.html

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NWS now has me down to 2-4 tonite. Not sure I've ever seen them drop it this fast. But Nobody, NOBODY, can predict LES along the South Shore of Ontario. Who knows, maybe they'll have to raise it later. Frustrated. My 8-14" NWS fcst has gone to 5-8" (including the 3" that has already fallen). This was always a low confidence fcst. But there is still time. Surprised they are running from their fcst this early. Still wondering when the warning gets dropped our downgraded to LES advisory.

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Actually Kenmore out to Tonawanda's always cash in nicely with this type of events..

 

Sometimes if the wind direction is just right. But living a tad north of the airport growing up, we got several surprise events a year from Huron/Ontario. Most of the time they were 2-4" events, but every once in a while we would get 6+" from them. Kenmore/Tonawanda is usually to far west to get a decent event.

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May be time to toss the radar...I see nothing over my house yet it's snowing at a petty good clip, just N of SYR.

I mentioned that yesterday....low, low stuff!!  The entire lake will pour with snow...even for Roc. Dave!!  Just have to get the winds lined up a bit more as the system explodes off the coast....

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I mentioned that yesterday....low, low stuff!!  The entire lake will pour with snow...even for Roc. Dave!!  Just have to get the winds lined up a bit more as the system explodes off the coast....

Actually WSYR 9 radar is showing the snow pretty well. NWS radar from TYX and BGM usually don't do as well with lower topped snow. Either that or they need to change a setting to clear air mode or whatever it's called now.

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Yah, even though the radar shows nothing at all over Rochester, I did see one flurry go by my window. In all seriousness, I can see how Buffalo gets more off this set up than does KROC. There is a twist in returns, and you guys are on the West side and I'm in the middle. But It should move east soon.

Hey King, Ya still bullish for Rochester? Or are ya having as many second thoughts as I am?

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I always thought I'd be a good forecaster, but with age comes wisdom. I now know I'd be an awful meteorolgist. I'd be all like, "we will be seeing easily a foot of snow, but on second thaught, we will probably see less than an inch- if we are lucky. Hold on, new model coming in, YES! We will see at least a foot.... Unless I'm wrong, let me start over."

I'm a slave to the emotions the models elicit within me. Which is why I like you guys. You 'feel my pain'.

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Actually WSYR 9 radar is showing the snow pretty well. NWS radar from TYX and BGM usually don't do as well with lower topped snow. Either that or they need to change a setting to clear air mode or whatever it's called now.

When the lake effect is low top KTYX and KBM radar beams are shooting over the top. Don't you know that "Closer is better" from 9WSYR?

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