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Upstate NY/North Country and Canadian/VT Borders Mid Feb. 2015 through end of Winter


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I like the March 15th-20th Time period for a winter storm somewhere between the great lakes and northeast. All long range models hint at the upper level pattern being conducive for something around that time. My roof was leaking because of a 4-6 inches of ice and another 20 inches of snow. He was up there all day cleaning it off yesterday. I can tell you one thing I'm investing in this spring. That would be two high end car washes inside and out for my two cars. ^_^

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Extended not looking too bad for more snow chances. It's over a week out but a couple of systems could develop per GFS...models likely to be flakier as spring approaches, but a big meltdown and consistent warmup looks like it's not happening through mid month. Which is only a a week and a half away. The big warmup next week looks like 2-3 days of 40-45, maybe.

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I truly and actually hope this winter isn't over! in KROC we had our share of hits but I am still feeling like we need one last BIG ONE. The models have been teasing us. The NAO is in Phase 7- for whatever that means. And I'm one of the few who still want MORE! I gotta keep reminding myself that Rochester is game for snowstorms well into early April- hell, sometimes into May (May 8,1989- 10"), and I can remember driving up to the top of Woodcliff Hill and standing in Wet Snow upto my mid thigh@ 24" that same day.

So we have time, climatologically speaking, to get another one or two Snow Events.

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I truly and actually hope this winter isn't over! in KROC we had our share of hits but I am still feeling like we need one last BIG ONE. The models have been teasing us. The NAO is in Phase 7- for whatever that means. And I'm one of the few who still want MORE! I gotta keep reminding myself that Rochester is game for snowstorms well into early April- hell, sometimes into May (May 8,1989- 10"), and I can remember driving up to the top of Woodcliff Hill and standing in Wet Snow upto my mid thigh@ 24" that same day.

So we have time, climatologically speaking, to get another one or two Snow Events.

 

We picked up another 1.5" last night. I could always go for a large synoptic system that hits the entire forum and then we break into spring. March is usually are busiest synoptic month.

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Just had to check out Sterling NY today - gorgeous on the lake. Took the drone up for a quick shot - amazing!

16539130297_b4442dc212_b.jpg

Nice Champy,  what UAV do you have?

i flew my Phantom 2 for a short flight yesterday,

been a crappy few weeks for that hobby.

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Wonder when the ice boom gets released this year. After the thaw next week we get cold again. The weeklies came in across the board really chilly. The average daily high temp for buffalo on March 1st is 36.7, on March 15th 41.4 and on the 31st 48 degrees. So won't be cold, but seasonally cool.

 

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According to the book Early American Winters by David Ludlum, the latest opening of the Erie Canal on record was, I believe, 1830. I imagine the lakes opened for shipping fairly late in 1934 1979 too.

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With 62 consecutive days of an inch or more of snow on the ground here in Buffalo (and 41 days in Rochester), it sure has been a long time since we have seen bare ground.

 

Today (3/9/15) ‪#‎Buffalo‬ will tie a milestone...with 20 inches on the ground this morning we will tie the longest stretch of days with 18 or more inches of snow on the ground. The stands at 34 days last set in 1977. If we can hang onto at least 18 inches through today we will set a new record with 35 consecutive days tomorrow (3/10/15).

 

I think we've had 2 feet on the ground here since the first week of January with those 2 LES events down here.

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Probably one of the cleanest, best MODIS pictures I've ever seen of our area.  The snow cover really brings out a lot of cool features.  

 

That is also some serious ice on the East end of Lake Ontario.  Quite impressive.

 

attachicon.giflake ontario ice 030915.png

 

Awesome pic! Our spring officially doesn't start until the ice melts completely in Lake Erie. Anywhere within 10 miles stays cold unless we get a South wind direction. W or SW keeps us chilly.

 

11060989_1001816913181330_38089718922684

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Some of the models, actually almost all of the models show, some sort of CAD event happening from hr 100-150. Very complex. Some show secondary development just off shore, others show a meandering LP from Ohio thru PA. A big question is placement and strength of HP over Ontario Provence. Euro barely has it. Others drop the 850 0c line south of WNY for a good portion of it. Right now the big snow is Rochester (at best) east and especially into the Dacks and whites. I hope models underestimating snow cover and power of back door fronts, maybe allowing ALL of WNY and even NW PA getting into the action. I'll be following this closely! Maybe it's the first salvo in what I expect to be a stormy second half of March

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Amazing pics! Rochester snow total way down. Looking at less than a foot now. @ 10". Which isn't bad for not having any appreciable snow for last couple weeks with temps approaching 50 for last 2 days.

I'm still intrigued by this weekends storm. Hey, its a spring storm, we are going to be having issues with the 850 C line. Hope the models reverse this warm trend. Spring storms rely on last minute cooling- dynamic, night time, back door fronts, etc. Often, the bigger snow totals are a surprise! So I'll still be watching closely. I wouldn't be shocked to see someone in WNY end up with a foot while others end up with a slushy inch, and while elevation will matter, maybe less so with such cold lakes and snow cover!

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Pretty obscene snowfall records coming out of Italy. It would appear to be some sort of sea/ocean effect snow off of a northeastern wind.

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2015/03/09/italy-sets-new-world-one-day-snowfall-record/

 

Just saw that in another thread. Is that the new 24 hour record? Heard that some personnel are going in to verify that record.

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Just saw that in another thread. Is that the new 24 hour record? Heard that some personnel are going in to verify that record.

8.34 feet is exactly 100 inches. Seems like a suspicious total. Obviously they're going to give their totals in cms, but I'm wondering about that total being such a nice round number.

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