AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ummm...I'm going to go out on a limb, and say that at some point the advisory will be upgraded to warnings for Oswego Co....conditions for some 6-12 hours look really good....a 270 wind (even with some quasi ice coverage)will produce rates that blow an "advisory" out of the water....look for a foot +/- a few inches somewhere in Oswego Co.I agree. Somewhere between here and Pulaski or so look really solid for several hours. Considering we should see a single band this time around I expect at least a few hours of 1-3"/hr rates somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 You know what I find a bit weird, the fact that I haven't seen a single Deer all season long?? Maybe they can't easily navigate through waist high snow, without drifts, lol, so maybe that's why?? Much like he unfortunate bee kill DeltaT13 has experienced, probably going to see a very thinned out deer population after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Don't forget as well that there were some sub -20F temps in much of WNY and CNY, a threshold where 80% or more of emerald ash borer larvae will die.That's good news...I wonder about the snow depth insulating bugs from the extreme cold though. I had always heard that the best conditions for limiting insect population was a "cold & dry" winter. At least the ones that live in the upper soil layers. A winter with long periods of snow cover can insulate bugs from the harshest cold depending on timing, etc. Although around these parts, virtually every winter features widespread snow cover for extensive periods. So I wonder what if any variation this winter will have on insect population. Will be interesting to hear what scientists have to say on this eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I didn't notice any decrease in insects/insect damage after last winter. In fact, saw more borer damage to trees. Also got my first tick bite after living here for 11 years. And the mosquitos were fierce last summer. This month has been much colder so we'll see. I haven't gone out on the trails behind our house for several weeks, but I can say that I'm not seeing any evidence of deer or foxes near the house (and there was plenty of activity when the snow wasn't very deep). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just another night here in the Arctic...wind is howling as the arctic front pushes through. Steady snow for the last hour and pretty significant blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Its weird, the King City Radar (just north of toronto) shows a circulation just north of Toronto. With a NW wind off Georgian Bay and off of Erie. But off the end of Ontario, the LES is oriented SW to NE. The latter is what I would expect. But the orientation off of Georgian Bay (NW to SE) suggests to me, that this event might be pushed a little further south along the south lake shore than previously advertised. Of course, I have a horse in the race (living in Rochester) which might make me biased. But it is something to watch. I'm becoming more and more suspect of the NWS talking about ice coverage on Ontario- there really isn't much to speak of. I simply can't understand why they insist on mentioning it as some huge limiting factor. It just isn't!!! Todays satellite images showed over 90 percent of Ontario being ice free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Surprise. The Southern lake Ontario Counties are once again getting heavy snow. hash tag unexpected. LOL. I think it is due to a low that established itself more toward toronto vs much further north as the models suggested. but it is just fluff. hope today and tonite keeps it coming. who knows, we could add a couple inches to this epic winter. Good luck to the Syracuse region also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 IDK, the BL dries up very quickly after the passage of the front so there's not much moisture to play with, and looking at echoes behind the front it looks like winds are setting up on a 270-280 as KBUF is suggesting, pretty much a due westerly dir which should bode well for Pulaski-Mexico and areas East of there(TUG) but I'm still somewhat skeptical of anything coming close warning amounts for either Oswego or Lewis cty's but I guess we'll see. KBUF for some strange reason didn't even bother to run their Meso models since 12Z 24th so I guess their not to enthused about the short lived event but as always, surprises do happen, lol, so we'll see. It does however seem strange with such steep lapse rates with the incoming airmass that there wouldn't be more of a response, on the models as well, but the RGEM , which KBUF uses quite often for these events, isn't showing amounts over 3-5" even on the TUG so this ones up in the air I suppose! Even the Arctic front seems moisture starved and they usually pack a small punch as they cross but this one isn't for some reason. We'll see what transpires throughout the day as KBUF has 2-4" in our forecast for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest GFS runs are a punch in the gut. 6+ inches with this Sun/Mon storm. Mixy mess on Wed. Clipper train with no end in sight through the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Last nights euro had a large snowstorm over western and central ny. Not sure if qpf but was definitely a warning event Sunday to Monday than slop with the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Every model except for Canadian and most ensemble members have Sunday/Monday as at least advisory (4"+) for this area. I'm surprised how WIVB mets have been seemingly downplaying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Latest GFS runs are a punch in the gut. 6+ inches with this Sun/Mon storm. Mixy mess on Wed. Clipper train with no end in sight through the first half of March. Sounds like a high five to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 The records keep rolling in!!!: 000 SXUS71 KBGM 251216 RERSYR RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 0715 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...SYRACUSE NY CLIMATE STATS... FEBRUARY 24TH, 2015 WILL MARK THE 26TH CONSECUTIVE DAY THAT THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 32 DEGREES OR LESS IN SYRACUSE, NY. THAT IS THE THIRD LONGEST STREAK EVER ON RECORD. 2ND PLACE IS 27 STRAIGHT DAYS IN 1912. THE ALL TIME RECORD IS 28 DAYS SET IN 1977. IF OUR FORECAST IS CORRECT, WE WILL BREAK THE ALL TIME RECORD THIS FRIDAY. 000 SXUS71 KBGM 251833 AAA RERSYR RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 132 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES SET AT SYRACUSE NY FEBRUARY 16TH... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -17 DEGREES WAS SET AT SYRACUSE NY FEBRUARY 16TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -10 SET IN 1943. ALSO ON THAT DAY THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS -5.5 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 16TH WAS -2.5 DEGREES IN 1904. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 6 ABOVE ZERO WHICH WAS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO BREAK THE RECORD OF ZERO SET IN 1904. 000 SXUS71 KBGM 251843 RERSYR RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 143 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...RECORD DAILY TEMPERATURES AT SYRACUSE NY FEBRUARY 20TH... ON FEBRUARY 20TH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT SYRACUSE WAS 5 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE DAILY RECORD FOR THE COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FIRST SET IN 1950. ALSO ON FEBRUARY 20TH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS -4.5 WHICH BROKE THE RECORD FOR THE COLDEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS -4 SET IN 1966. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF -14 DID NOT BREAK THE RECORD OF -21 SET IN 1966. 000 SXUS71 KBGM 250852 RERSYR RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 0349 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT SYRACUSE NY... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -18 DEGREES WAS SET AT SYRACUSE NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -13 SET IN 1914. 000 SXUS71 KBGM 251838 AAA RERSYR RECORD EVENT REPORT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 138 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...RECORD DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES TIED AT SYRACUSE NY FEBRUARY 19TH... ON FEBRUARY 19TH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT SYRACUSE WAS 11 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE DAILY RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 19TH FOR THE COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD WAS FIRST SET IN 1916. ALSO ON FEBRUARY 19TH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 4 WHICH TIED THE RECORD FOR THE COLDEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE. THE RECORD WAS FIRST SET IN 1966. THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF -3 DID NOT BREAK THE RECORD OF -9 SET IN 2007. 000 SXUS71 KBGM 241211 RERSYR RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 0711 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...RECORD DAYS BELOW ZERO IN A CALENDAR YEAR FOR SYRACUSE NY... WE HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO AGAIN THIS MORNING IN SYRACUSE, NY. THIS IS THE 20TH TIME THIS YEAR (2015) THAT WE HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO, WHICH IS AN ALL TIME RECORD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 19 DAYS WAS SET IN 1948. RECORDS FROM SYRACUSE GO BACK TO 1902. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS, WE MAY HAVE AT LEAST A FEW MORE BELOW ZERO DAYS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK, ADDING TO THE CURRENT RECORD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 SYR will SHATTER the coldest month ever!! 12.8 is the current all time record for ANY coldest month...see below for up to date current: (also, I wonder what the greatest departure ...either high or low...has ever been recorded at SYR...this month would be tops in that also, I presume...) 000 CXUS51 KBGM 250859 CF6SYR PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: SYRACUSE NY MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2015 LATITUDE: 43 7 N LONGITUDE: 76 7 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 24 11 18 -6 47 0 0.06 1.2 5 7.1 16 270 M M 9 1 21 260 2 14 1 8 -16 57 0 0.34 8.8 11 12.7 28 300 M M 10 19 33 310 3 22 -2 10 -14 55 0 T 0.4 14 7.6 21 220 M M 8 18 26 210 4 32 14 23 -1 42 0 0.17 2.9 13 9.4 22 260 M M 10 19 27 250 5 22 6 14 -10 51 0 0.05 1.8 16 11.1 21 340 M M 8 189 24 310 6 22 5 14 -10 51 0 0.02 0.4 14 13.8 24 260 M M 7 18 31 250 7 27 20 24 0 41 0 0.18 2.1 14 8.0 17 240 M M 10 1 21 250 8 23 10 17 -8 48 0 0.28 3.6 15 7.1 15 90 M M 10 18 20 90 9 20 9 15 -10 50 0 0.43 5.8 19 3.7 12 90 M M 10 12 14 100 10 18 5 12 -13 53 0 T T 21 6.5 12 300 M M 9 1 13 300 11 28 -1 14 -11 51 0 0.05 1.0 20 3.4 12 90 M M 7 18 13 100 12 24 0 12 -13 53 0 0.08 3.9 20 14.1 32 270 M M 9 129 39 270 13 8 -13 -2 -27 67 0 T 0.4 20 6.9 18 250 M M 7 19 24 250 14 22 2 12 -14 53 0 0.14 4.4 20 9.7 23 280 M M 10 19 30 300 15 8 -6 1 -25 64 0 0.04 3.0 25 17.0 26 330 M M 9 19 33 340 16 6 -17 -5 -31 70 0 T T 25 6.0 15 260 M M 7 1 19 270 17 17 -11 3 -23 62 0 T T 24 2.9 7 270 M M 8 9 100 18 24 -7 9 -17 56 0 0.06 2.6 23 5.8 28 270 M M 8 129 32 260 19 11 -3 4 -23 61 0 0.20 6.2 26 18.5 28 260 M M 10 1289 38 290 20 5 -14 -4 -31 69 0 0.08 1.6 29 13.5 26 250 M M 7 19 32 250 21 20 -16 2 -25 63 0 0.10 4.4 32 6.1 21 160 M M 9 19 28 160 22 25 13 19 -8 46 0 0.02 1.0 31 6.7 24 310 M M 10 19 33 310 23 13 -6 4 -24 61 0 0.15 3.6 33 14.5 21 270 M M 9 129 30 290 24 19 -18 1 -27 64 0 0.00 0.0 32 10.2 24 200 M M 7 34 180 ================================================================================ SM 454 -18 1335 0 2.45 59.1 222.3 M 208 ================================================================================ AV 18.9 -0.8 9.3 FASTST M M 9 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 32 270 # 39 270 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: SYRACUSE NY MONTH: FEBRUARY YEAR: 2015 LATITUDE: 43 7 N LONGITUDE: 76 7 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 9.1 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.45 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: -16.4 DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.71 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 32 ON 4 GRTST 24HR 1.37 ON 1- 2 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: -18 ON 24 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 59.1 INCHES 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 8.8 ON M 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 33 ON 23 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 24 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 18 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 9 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 24 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 0 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 13 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 1335 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 387 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 10 TOTAL FM JUL 1 5000 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 14 DPTR FM NORMAL 316 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 0 HIGHEST SLP M ON M DPTR FM NORMAL 0 LOWEST SLP 29.48 ON 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 25, 2015 Author Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are you kidding me??? a minus freakin' 16.4 departure from normal this deep into a month???? Unbelievable!!! Sorry, grandparents (God rest their souls)...your "stories" have been topped!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Are you kidding me??? a minus freakin' 16.4 departure from normal this deep into a month???? Unbelievable!!! Sorry, grandparents (God rest their souls)...your "stories" have been topped!!!I'd agree with that, been telling the kids they are living thru history in the making right now...Next week should add to the snow and reach my seasonal avg of 127"...I think I'm about 118 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice single band across no. Oswego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Are you kidding me??? a minus freakin' 16.4 departure from normal this deep into a month???? Unbelievable!!! Sorry, grandparents (God rest their souls)...your "stories" have been topped!!! That's pretty awesome, some day you'll be reminiscing about the winter of 2014/15 lol. Here in ALB we're running a 13.1 degree departure with an average monthly temperature of 12.3, not gonna be enough to top Feb 1934 (12.1) but we'll probably steal second place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Are you kidding me??? a minus freakin' 16.4 departure from normal this deep into a month???? Unbelievable!!! Sorry, grandparents (God rest their souls)...your "stories" have been topped!!! Similar numbers in Buffalo. As of yesterday, they were at an average temperature of 11.1, which is a 14.8 departure from normal. The coldest month in Buffalo history is February 1934 with an average temperature of 11.6. So as it stands now, that record should be broken fairly comfortably. And this is with 145 years of climate data (back to 1871 I believe). I think Syracuse goes back to 1901. Very impressive stuff we are seeing this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 If I had kids, which in Buffalo is arguably a crime already for other reasons, I'd make them forget this awful cold for their sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 You gotta give credit to JB, dude called it back in 2011 when he use to work with accuwx.. http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bastardi-three-of-next-five-wi-1/45220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Interesting write up but not very accurate. He wrote in Feb 2011 that the next winter would be cold. 2011-2012 (if memory serves) was historically warm. He also talks a lot about La Niña. The last couple of winters have actually been El Niño winters, all be them weak El Niño. This winter, in US aggregate will be normal with the West and Rockies being very warm while the NE shivered. I like Bastardi, but he is constantly rewriting the past to FIT with his vague fcsts. Long range fcsts are a fools game. Rarely correct. Won't stop me from reading his blogs and posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 This is bugging me too. They mention it again when discussing lake effect mid-week off Ontario. Here's the sat shot from today. Ice is largely restricted to far eastern basin. Don't they know to check this out??? t1.15054.1552.LakeOntario.143.250m.jpg syracuse.com still talking about the huge amount of ice on lake ontario http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/lake_ontario_ice_lake_effect_snow_watertown_cold_february.html in that article it looks like the picture is a couple weeks ago before we had those strong winds last weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 syracuse.com still talking about the huge amount of ice on lake ontario http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/lake_ontario_ice_lake_effect_snow_watertown_cold_february.html in that article it looks like the picture is a couple weeks ago before we had those strong winds last weekend... It seems that the article does reference the morning of February 17th as the image that is used in the article. It has an unmistakable meso-cyclone in the image. Here is today's current picture from the lake, I'll give it a solid 20-25 percent ice covered. Only 60 percent different than the great lakes observation page.....bunch of jokers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Wake up Upstate forum!!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 238 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 NYZ012-019>021-085-280345- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0003.150301T0900Z-150302T1200Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 238 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...WYOMING...AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Wake up Upstate forum!!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 238 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 NYZ012-019>021-085-280345- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0003.150301T0900Z-150302T1200Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 238 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...WYOMING...AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. Yay! I don't think a WSW is needed. I think a general 4-6" is possible across WNY. Would put me above 200" on the year for my first time ever though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 You gotta give credit to JB, dude called it back in 2011 when he use to work with accuwx.. http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bastardi-three-of-next-five-wi-1/45220 Interesting write up but not very accurate. He wrote in Feb 2011 that the next winter would be cold. 2011-2012 (if memory serves) was historically warm. He also talks a lot about La Niña. The last couple of winters have actually been El Niño winters, all be them weak El Niño. This winter, in US aggregate will be normal with the West and Rockies being very warm while the NE shivered. I like Bastardi, but he is constantly rewriting the past to FIT with his vague fcsts. Long range fcsts are a fools game. Rarely correct. Won't stop me from reading his blogs and posts. It'll be really interesting to see what happens over the next 20-30 years and whether or not we will indeed return to the climatic conditions of the late 1970s. Could these past two winters be a warning shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This is one of those winter mornings where the sun is shining and the sky looks blue yet periodically very light snow is floating through the air. I haven't seen much discussion on this board about tomorrow and tomorrow night's snow event. Are we looking at a SWFE similar to last Saturday's 4 to 8 inch event? It seems like this one's being downplayed but so was last week's until that banding set up over northern Onondaga and southern Oswego counties and gave us around 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Quite unreal...and I think the reality of what we have just been through (Feb. '15), will take some time to truly appreciate. And not to downplay AT ALL the above records, but at SYR, the manner in which a long standing COLDEST MONTHLY RECORD is being SMASHED is statistically mind boggling, when scrutinized....SYR will beat said record by nearly 3 degrees!!! I'd like to know ANY station in the US that has beaten their coldest (or warmest for that manner) MONTH EVER by such a wide margin, say over the last 50 years. Obviously, early on in ALL historical data records, records are broken more frequently, and by decent margins....but with well over 100 years of data at SYR, to break such a record with such vigor, is really, really statistically mind bending! ie....this HAS to be a record margin for beating a long standing record of a MAJOR statistic at ANY US weather data collecting site!!!!!..........OK, enough drama.....but it is at minimal pretty neat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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