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Upstate NY/North Country and Canadian/VT Borders Mid Feb. 2015 through end of Winter


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On the ground in Rochester region is just under 2'. But hey! That is a sh.t ton of snow! With all the compaction etc. We don't often do much more than this. Reading the kbuf disco, I was surprised and pleased to see them say flags may be necessary for tomorrow nights LES. They are focussing from Eastern Niagara to Western Wayne- so most of the South Shore. I still think lots of water open for business. Especially after the moderate temps today and the winds Thursday. We shall see. Any comments on the virility of this possible event? Also, I've seen comments about an inland runner in the next couple weeks, other than a couple 200 hr teases I don't see much reason for optimism. Am I missing something in the overall pattern that would suggest such a storm? Or is just climatology? WE ALWAYS get a Low to go inland in Early to mid March? And for the last few, we've had an ohio low for early April. LOL

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As of midnight, Syracuse has passed Buffalo for the lead in the Golden Snowball Award. The 4.4 inches of snow measured at KSYR puts the seasonal total at 101.3 inches. Buffalo's total stands at 101.1. Also, this February is now the second snowiest ever at Syracuse with 54.5 inches.

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Well we didn't even scare freezing today, 23 currently, but it feels mild with little wind after the cold we've had recently. Managed to get most of the driveway scraped down to blacktop. The feb sun, even behind clouds, noticeably stronger than a few weeks ago and helping soften up packed snow.

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Sometime in the late 1800's, according to the Rochester News Paper, a group of folks set out to go from Rochester to Toronto on foot, over a frozen Lake Ontario. They didn't say if they were succesful. Some say the lake froze over in 1978-79 winter.

However, I too am skeptical if it has truly frozen over in at least the 'recent' history. The ice percentages are greatly exagerated this winter to be sure. So I'm wondering if this LES event might be better or more robust than the couple of inches they are calling for. NWS BUF said in their disco that this normally would be a significant event except for the 'ice coverage' and some dry air moving in later in the event. Snowing hard in Irondequoit as I write! a combination of front and enhancement I blv. Expect better true lake effect sometime after midnite. I'll let ya all know if it fires up!

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im seeing a darn good, and early response from both lake erie (surprisingly) and Ontario following the passage of the front. Now, we often get a burst of back filled snow from these fronts because alot of the fronts departing moisture is still available. We shall see if the lakes alone are capable of generating snow. I'm definitely liking what I'm seeing. 1" plus since 7pm. More than fcst for the entire nite.

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Have to imagine ice cover is less than 20-30%. Could be a sneaky few inches tonight through tomorrow am

NWS BUF said in their disco this would be a significant event if there was less ice. my premise is that there IS MUCH less ice on Ontario than has been advertised- which is what the models use in their qpf outputs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see several more inches along the south shore from Orleans to SW Oswego county. Let the fluff commence!
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NWS BUF said in their disco this would be a significant event if there was less ice. my premise is that there IS MUCH less ice on Ontario than has been advertised- which is what the models use in their qpf outputs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see several more inches along the south shore from Orleans to SW Oswego county. Let the fluff commence!

Noticed that also. The concern appears to be significant dry air I would think. Inversion goes up to 10k feet for a while, which is pretty good and wind direction similar to the last event, not sure about shear. Also the duration will be less. I wonder whether there not a certain amount of forecast fatigue setting in also. I mean, if it snows all the time....meh... The good news is that with basically zero expectations for this episode, won't be hard to over achieve. ;)

SN+ here now all of a sudden.

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KBGM thinking lake snow on 280-300 should get going closer to dawn. Expecting 1-3" "at worst"...no mention of ice coverage concern, probably just dry air, smaller flake sizes, etc. we'll see how this shakes out. KBUF not hoisting any flags at this point either. Somebody will probably score 4 or 5" overall and with ROC area already with an inch or two, might not be too hard to get there over next 24 hours...it would seem.

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