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Upstate NY/North Country and Canadian/VT Borders Mid Feb. 2015 through end of Winter


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GFS still see no coastal dev. for next week....model consensus has been really poor at days 3-6 this winter!!!  I mean, not just placement of LP's but really quite a lot of "nothings" vs. "somethings"....

Nice job George on the lake effect! 13" for mby(Phoenix) Have a great weekend.

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The sun looks great but it was awfully cold when I was out clearing the driveway earlier. The wind was harsh. Had a little surprise this morning, the plow driver decided to widen the road a bit and I had a lot more dense snow than I expected at the base of the driveway. Piles are high enough now that the snowblower has trouble lifting the snow over them.

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It appears that KSYR only made it to 5 degrees for a high temperature today. That would tie the record for lowest high temperature for 2/20 set in 1950. The record low for tomorrow is -13 also set in 1950. Let's see if we can make a run for that record before the temperature starts to rise. At 8 PM it's already down to -7.

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-4 here. Looking at the 18z GFS operational...just a parade of snowstorm opportunities the next two weeks. And temps look below normal with the western ridge PNA pattern entrenched.

Yep....I love Eichorn, Longley, Teske....but I believe they were way premature for touting a substantial warmup....I mean, yes, we will have periods of near normal temps. (a few)...and yes...after the middle of next week, we most likely will have seen the worst of the cold...but the no so subtle impression that winter is almost over, was/is kind of a flaky call....IMO..

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Long range progs keep trying to shift the pattern after day 10. Problem is, each run does the same thing...it's always past day 10. Even the shift that is hinted at looks like it would result in a continuation of colder than normal conditions, just not as severely cold.

I keep looking for signs that the PNA pattern will breakdown. Every few runs there's a glimpse but then the western ridge reemerges strongly on later runs. It'll happen eventually, it always does, and the arctic will warm as spring comes, and so will we. Just interesting to see how far and how anomalous this can go. Usually, once hit astronomical spring, the tide is turning decisively. Never can get is snow then. )

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Well, last year wasn't March the coldest (in terms of anomaly, not actual temperature)? I don't think we can have a repeat of that since this month is averaging about 12 deg below normal, but...

We had a run of several March's not long ago with virtually no snowfall so a "big" March might help balance that out. Of course, small sample size and I'm not being very precise, just my recollection. And I forget what last Maxh was like. I think we had some snow but nothing spectacular. But yeah, I'd agree, repeating Feb snow and temp anomalies this March would seem to be a long shot.

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Great close up of L. Ontario today....awesome feeder streamers into the "main" band....and no appreciable hindrance due to the "ice" (if you can see it!!)

 

gUohFqv.jpg

Wow, nice photo.  What's that thick band from along the south shore? Convergence effect?  We picked up close to 2" after 8am today, I guess this helps explain it.  Wasn't that much in l'pool at work.  Looks like we reload (as if that's necessary at this point) on Monday...

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Yep....I love Eichorn, Longley, Teske....but I believe they were way premature for touting a substantial warmup....I mean, yes, we will have periods of near normal temps. (a few)...and yes...after the middle of next week, we most likely will have seen the worst of the cold...but the no so subtle impression that winter is almost over, was/is kind of a flaky call....IMO..

Eichorn's update on the blog at WSYR today continues the theme...improvement coming!  In March...whatever.  I could write that sh*t.  Actually, I could write that based on numerous and consistent NWP output, there's actually little improvement coming for the foreseeable future, other than the calendar is going to help us out soon.  We know that due to the earth rotating around that sun thingy and given the angle of the earth, yeah its gonna get better in time. Holy mother of god.  Its like we're babies needing to be soothed.  This is why i generally ignore almost all mass media. Its infantile and I feel my IQ sucked lower every time I interact with it.  And these guys down at WSYR are really good at what they do.  Could be worse, I could be sentenced to watching TWC for days on end.  I'd rather be waterboarded.   #smh

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I couldn't help but laugh at this little paragraph that this office had to put in their discussion, like they didn't completely BUST with their extremely conservative totals??

 

STRG CAA DOMINATES AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY. THE LL
FLOW WILL BE ABT 280-290 DEGREES SUGGESTING MORE LES DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO. LAST EVENT WAS LACKLUSTER AND PRODUCED BARELY ADVY
AMNTS IN OUR NC ZONES. LOCAL LAKE EFFECT CHECKLIST SHOWS BARELY
ADVY AMNTS AGAIN SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR LES WITH FLURRIES
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST INVADES THE REGION.


 
I got close to 15" for the event as a whole so to me it wasn't a absolute blockbuster but it was exactly what KBUF forecasted in my local area!  10-14" was the forecast by KBUF while KBGM was what 2-6"??  Whatever its over but I just love the way they deliberately try to tell the public like "see wee were right" when they were absolutely wrong as was WSYR and many other local outlets!  It was definitely a tough forecast which LEK hit dead on, at least for my area, which was close to the jackpot which I believe was No. Cayuga as well as Oswego from what I heard!
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Record low at SYR this morning..-16 and touched -14 before midnight!!  Brrrrrr!  Feb. '15 departure now down to -15..4!!!!!  And with a -16 in the bank for today and a progged high of 25, we'll get another departure near -20 for today....which will put the departure for the month near -15.7!!!!!  #UNFREAKIN'REAL

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Record low at SYR this morning..-16 and touched -14 before midnight!!  Brrrrrr!  Feb. '15 departure now down to -15..4!!!!!  And with a -16 in the bank for today and a progged high of 25, we'll get another departure near -20 for today....which will put the departure for the month near -15.7!!!!!  #UNFREAKIN'REAL

I've seen to many leads in sporting events evaporate in the last minutes of the game to put this one in the books but we could be living through the coldest month since records have been kept at Syracuse. That's combined with well above average snowfall. We may never see a month like this again in our lifetimes!

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I've seen to many leads in sporting events evaporate in the last minutes of the game to put this one in the books but we could be living through the coldest month since records have been kept at Syracuse. That's combined with well above average snowfall. We may never see a month like this again in our lifetimes!

After today...our average monthly temp through 21 days will be about 9.4....the record cold month in Feb. '34 averaged 12.1....with the two upcoming cold surges (Sun. evening into Monday, and Wednesday into Thursday averaging below the 10 degree mark per progs) I see NO WAY that we don't shatter the record by about a degree +/- a few tenths!!!

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Here are the top 5 snowiest Februarys recorded in Syracuse:

1958: 72.6 inches

1946: 51.4

1993: 51.3

1960: 50.5

1972: 50.0

As of midnight the total for this February is 50.1 inches putting it into 5th place. Number 1 is probably out of reach but after today's snowfall we should easily climb to the 2nd snowiest February on record!!

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I couldn't help but laugh at this little paragraph that this office had to put in their discussion, like they didn't completely BUST with their extremely conservative totals??

 

STRG CAA DOMINATES AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY. THE LLFLOW WILL BE ABT 280-290 DEGREES SUGGESTING MORE LES DOWNWIND OF

LAKE ONTARIO. LAST EVENT WAS LACKLUSTER AND PRODUCED BARELY ADVY

AMNTS IN OUR NC ZONES. LOCAL LAKE EFFECT CHECKLIST SHOWS BARELYADVY AMNTS AGAIN SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR LES WITH FLURRIES

AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXT

ARCTIC BLAST INVADES THE REGION.

 

I got close to 15" for the event as a whole so to me it wasn't a absolute blockbuster but it was exactly what KBUF forecasted in my local area!  10-14" was the forecast by KBUF while KBGM was what 2-6"??  Whatever its over but I just love the way they deliberately try to tell the public like "see wee were right" when they were absolutely wrong as was WSYR and many other local outlets!  It was definitely a tough forecast which LEK hit dead on, at least for my area, which was close to the jackpot which I believe was No. Cayuga as well as Oswego from what I heard!

Yeah I had just shy of a foot, 11.5" summed up, for basically a 2 day event. And @Phoenix had 13". Pretty sure LPool was in the same ballpark. Combined with the wind and BLSN, not sure I'd characterize the event as lackluster, in terms of impact. I know it was sub flag criteria for most of the event but conditions Thursday afternoon and evening were pretty bad. Not sure what to expect from next event but appears that it will be focused over similar areas. Even if it's half as much, combined with whatever falls today (snowfall maps seemingly decreasing by the hour from KBGM, Lulz), could be a 2-3 day total of similar snowfall. Sub Warning for sure but not bad.

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Snow starting here. Hard to believe we're only getting 1-3" when looking at the radar but I can't ignore the models.

I can see it snowing on the Cornell webcam. Maybe it will over perform down there but the models are insistent on putting a snow minimum over the Finger Lakes.

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