vortmax Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Very cool looking band coming off the lake with streamers feeding the main one...all pushing North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS still see no coastal dev. for next week....model consensus has been really poor at days 3-6 this winter!!! I mean, not just placement of LP's but really quite a lot of "nothings" vs. "somethings".... Nice job George on the lake effect! 13" for mby(Phoenix) Have a great weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Update on the Ontario ice: http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/wind_waves_breaking_up_near-record_ice_cover_on_lake_ontario.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LES still going strong here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I see the sun fellas. It feels great. I'm getting that itch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sun is shining brightly here also, really nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The sun looks great but it was awfully cold when I was out clearing the driveway earlier. The wind was harsh. Had a little surprise this morning, the plow driver decided to widen the road a bit and I had a lot more dense snow than I expected at the base of the driveway. Piles are high enough now that the snowblower has trouble lifting the snow over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Picked up about 1.5-2" today, after I cleared the board at 8am. Storm total of 12", not bad for a sub advisory event. We do have an advisory for nuisance snow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It appears that KSYR only made it to 5 degrees for a high temperature today. That would tie the record for lowest high temperature for 2/20 set in 1950. The record low for tomorrow is -13 also set in 1950. Let's see if we can make a run for that record before the temperature starts to rise. At 8 PM it's already down to -7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm at -12 here at 8:19 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 -4 here. Looking at the 18z GFS operational...just a parade of snowstorm opportunities the next two weeks. And temps look below normal with the western ridge PNA pattern entrenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 -4 here. Looking at the 18z GFS operational...just a parade of snowstorm opportunities the next two weeks. And temps look below normal with the western ridge PNA pattern entrenched. Yep....I love Eichorn, Longley, Teske....but I believe they were way premature for touting a substantial warmup....I mean, yes, we will have periods of near normal temps. (a few)...and yes...after the middle of next week, we most likely will have seen the worst of the cold...but the no so subtle impression that winter is almost over, was/is kind of a flaky call....IMO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Long range progs keep trying to shift the pattern after day 10. Problem is, each run does the same thing...it's always past day 10. Even the shift that is hinted at looks like it would result in a continuation of colder than normal conditions, just not as severely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Long range progs keep trying to shift the pattern after day 10. Problem is, each run does the same thing...it's always past day 10. Even the shift that is hinted at looks like it would result in a continuation of colder than normal conditions, just not as severely cold. I keep looking for signs that the PNA pattern will breakdown. Every few runs there's a glimpse but then the western ridge reemerges strongly on later runs. It'll happen eventually, it always does, and the arctic will warm as spring comes, and so will we. Just interesting to see how far and how anomalous this can go. Usually, once hit astronomical spring, the tide is turning decisively. Never can get is snow then. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well, last year wasn't March the coldest (in terms of anomaly, not actual temperature)? I don't think we can have a repeat of that since this month is averaging about 12 deg below normal, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well, last year wasn't March the coldest (in terms of anomaly, not actual temperature)? I don't think we can have a repeat of that since this month is averaging about 12 deg below normal, but... We had a run of several March's not long ago with virtually no snowfall so a "big" March might help balance that out. Of course, small sample size and I'm not being very precise, just my recollection. And I forget what last Maxh was like. I think we had some snow but nothing spectacular. But yeah, I'd agree, repeating Feb snow and temp anomalies this March would seem to be a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 -10 IMBY. Frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Great close up of L. Ontario today....awesome feeder streamers into the "main" band....and no appreciable hindrance due to the "ice" (if you can see it!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Great close up of L. Ontario today....awesome feeder streamers into the "main" band....and no appreciable hindrance due to the "ice" (if you can see it!!) Wow, nice photo. What's that thick band from along the south shore? Convergence effect? We picked up close to 2" after 8am today, I guess this helps explain it. Wasn't that much in l'pool at work. Looks like we reload (as if that's necessary at this point) on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep....I love Eichorn, Longley, Teske....but I believe they were way premature for touting a substantial warmup....I mean, yes, we will have periods of near normal temps. (a few)...and yes...after the middle of next week, we most likely will have seen the worst of the cold...but the no so subtle impression that winter is almost over, was/is kind of a flaky call....IMO.. Eichorn's update on the blog at WSYR today continues the theme...improvement coming! In March...whatever. I could write that sh*t. Actually, I could write that based on numerous and consistent NWP output, there's actually little improvement coming for the foreseeable future, other than the calendar is going to help us out soon. We know that due to the earth rotating around that sun thingy and given the angle of the earth, yeah its gonna get better in time. Holy mother of god. Its like we're babies needing to be soothed. This is why i generally ignore almost all mass media. Its infantile and I feel my IQ sucked lower every time I interact with it. And these guys down at WSYR are really good at what they do. Could be worse, I could be sentenced to watching TWC for days on end. I'd rather be waterboarded. #smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I couldn't help but laugh at this little paragraph that this office had to put in their discussion, like they didn't completely BUST with their extremely conservative totals?? STRG CAA DOMINATES AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY. THE LLFLOW WILL BE ABT 280-290 DEGREES SUGGESTING MORE LES DOWNWIND OFLAKE ONTARIO. LAST EVENT WAS LACKLUSTER AND PRODUCED BARELY ADVYAMNTS IN OUR NC ZONES. LOCAL LAKE EFFECT CHECKLIST SHOWS BARELYADVY AMNTS AGAIN SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR LES WITH FLURRIESAND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXTARCTIC BLAST INVADES THE REGION. I got close to 15" for the event as a whole so to me it wasn't a absolute blockbuster but it was exactly what KBUF forecasted in my local area! 10-14" was the forecast by KBUF while KBGM was what 2-6"?? Whatever its over but I just love the way they deliberately try to tell the public like "see wee were right" when they were absolutely wrong as was WSYR and many other local outlets! It was definitely a tough forecast which LEK hit dead on, at least for my area, which was close to the jackpot which I believe was No. Cayuga as well as Oswego from what I heard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Record low at SYR this morning..-16 and touched -14 before midnight!! Brrrrrr! Feb. '15 departure now down to -15..4!!!!! And with a -16 in the bank for today and a progged high of 25, we'll get another departure near -20 for today....which will put the departure for the month near -15.7!!!!! #UNFREAKIN'REAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Record low at SYR this morning..-16 and touched -14 before midnight!! Brrrrrr! Feb. '15 departure now down to -15..4!!!!! And with a -16 in the bank for today and a progged high of 25, we'll get another departure near -20 for today....which will put the departure for the month near -15.7!!!!! #UNFREAKIN'REAL I've seen to many leads in sporting events evaporate in the last minutes of the game to put this one in the books but we could be living through the coldest month since records have been kept at Syracuse. That's combined with well above average snowfall. We may never see a month like this again in our lifetimes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I've seen to many leads in sporting events evaporate in the last minutes of the game to put this one in the books but we could be living through the coldest month since records have been kept at Syracuse. That's combined with well above average snowfall. We may never see a month like this again in our lifetimes! After today...our average monthly temp through 21 days will be about 9.4....the record cold month in Feb. '34 averaged 12.1....with the two upcoming cold surges (Sun. evening into Monday, and Wednesday into Thursday averaging below the 10 degree mark per progs) I see NO WAY that we don't shatter the record by about a degree +/- a few tenths!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Here are the top 5 snowiest Februarys recorded in Syracuse: 1958: 72.6 inches 1946: 51.4 1993: 51.3 1960: 50.5 1972: 50.0 As of midnight the total for this February is 50.1 inches putting it into 5th place. Number 1 is probably out of reach but after today's snowfall we should easily climb to the 2nd snowiest February on record!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Man i'm really liking that first week of march, big storm signals on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I couldn't help but laugh at this little paragraph that this office had to put in their discussion, like they didn't completely BUST with their extremely conservative totals?? STRG CAA DOMINATES AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PASSES BY. THE LLFLOW WILL BE ABT 280-290 DEGREES SUGGESTING MORE LES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. LAST EVENT WAS LACKLUSTER AND PRODUCED BARELY ADVY AMNTS IN OUR NC ZONES. LOCAL LAKE EFFECT CHECKLIST SHOWS BARELYADVY AMNTS AGAIN SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR LES WITH FLURRIES AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST INVADES THE REGION. I got close to 15" for the event as a whole so to me it wasn't a absolute blockbuster but it was exactly what KBUF forecasted in my local area! 10-14" was the forecast by KBUF while KBGM was what 2-6"?? Whatever its over but I just love the way they deliberately try to tell the public like "see wee were right" when they were absolutely wrong as was WSYR and many other local outlets! It was definitely a tough forecast which LEK hit dead on, at least for my area, which was close to the jackpot which I believe was No. Cayuga as well as Oswego from what I heard! Yeah I had just shy of a foot, 11.5" summed up, for basically a 2 day event. And @Phoenix had 13". Pretty sure LPool was in the same ballpark. Combined with the wind and BLSN, not sure I'd characterize the event as lackluster, in terms of impact. I know it was sub flag criteria for most of the event but conditions Thursday afternoon and evening were pretty bad. Not sure what to expect from next event but appears that it will be focused over similar areas. Even if it's half as much, combined with whatever falls today (snowfall maps seemingly decreasing by the hour from KBGM, Lulz), could be a 2-3 day total of similar snowfall. Sub Warning for sure but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 "Only" got down to -13 last night, but that is still the coldest I've seen in my 12 years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow starting here. Hard to believe we're only getting 1-3" when looking at the radar but I can't ignore the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow starting here. Hard to believe we're only getting 1-3" when looking at the radar but I can't ignore the models. I can see it snowing on the Cornell webcam. Maybe it will over perform down there but the models are insistent on putting a snow minimum over the Finger Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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