Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This band that's been flirting with lpool all day is really producing attm. Its been a bit intermittent in intensity but it won't take much intensification for this thing to really pound someone today/tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Even an image from afar reveals less ice than certainly the 80% their touting! I'm sure someone can get a better up close Photo of the Lake! Band looks to be consolidating as the snow has really picked up here and flake size has gone up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Someone posted a video on facebook showing some of the Lake ice around Charlotte from a drone. There were some areas that were obviously covered with pretty thick snow-covered ice but the areas that were "open" had a lot of thin, broken ice...that might look dark on a standard satellite image. I don't know if/how that counts in their calculation but it's possible much of the lake looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Someone posted a video on facebook showing some of the Lake ice around Charlotte from a drone. There were some areas that were obviously covered with pretty thick snow-covered ice but the areas that were "open" had a lot of thin, broken ice...that might look dark on a standard satellite image. I don't know if/how that counts in their calculation but it's possible much of the lake looks that way. you can actually see the mass of ice moving with an animated visible shot of the Lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where did the storm for this weekend go, lol?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where did the storm for this weekend go, lol?? It was crushed by the sfc h.p. that supposedly didn't exist yday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where did the storm for this weekend go, lol?? ....speghettifide into a "faster than modeled yesterday" mid-level flow....ie...strung out like a heroin addict! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 It was crushed by the sfc h.p. that supposedly didn't exist yday. Yep....stronger HP than progged...partially/mostly due to tigher height field out ahead of the approaching surface wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 But didn't KBGM mention the lack there of, or was it Longley, ahh it doesn't matter as this season has everyone spooked, lol. Don't know whether to pull the trigger or not has happened all too often this season with many many storms to deal with and we're anywhere near done. Its snowing like crazy in Clay with easily over 8" for the event as a whole without even an advisory. I know it doesn't matter to us as we are well informed but it does to a poor soul, thinking WSYR's 2" would verify, instead they wake up to 6", lol, thinking what the heck happened. KBGM still hasn't budged with any type of advisory even as the band intensifies. It's mind-boggling to me sometimes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's absolutely embarrassing that no one at NOAA will man up and admit that these numbers are pure bull****. Lake Ontario is probably about 20 percent ice covered right now....and that is being generous. What a farce and waste of tax dollars. I sent them emails last week chastising their lousy analysis and their response was finger pointing and diversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll just leave this here for posterity. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's absolutely embarrassing that no one at NOAA will man up and admit that these numbers are pure bull****. Lake Ontario is probably about 20 percent ice covered right now....and that is being generous. What a farce and waste of tax dollars. I sent them emails last week chastising their lousy analysis and their response was finger pointing and diversion. LOL! I saw a clear shot of Ontario yesterday, and there is plenty of open water....I might give them an even more generous 40%, depending on the exact criteria...but really, the map above is way overdone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 More of the same for this winter. At least it means some snow out here in ENY rather than a cold rain...until future runs squash it far enough to leave things Mostly Cloudy around here... Yep....stronger HP than progged...partially/mostly due to tigher height field out ahead of the approaching surface wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll just leave this here for posterity. SMH Lake Ontario Ice 021915.png Yep, 16% difference in ice cover between L. Erie and Ontario....clearly evident..........LMAO!!! ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 This image was from yesterday...Yes there is ice over the lake....much of it is very broken up, and easily dispersed/melted by waves/wind warmer water in center, which based on your image that Delta posted, has happened already today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 But didn't KBGM mention the lack there of, or was it Longley, ahh it doesn't matter as this season has everyone spooked, lol. Don't know whether to pull the trigger or not has happened all too often this season with many many storms to deal with and we're anywhere near done. Its snowing like crazy in Clay with easily over 8" for the event as a whole without even an advisory. I know it doesn't matter to us as we are well informed but it does to a poor soul, thinking WSYR's 2" would verify, instead they wake up to 6", lol, thinking what the heck happened. KBGM still hasn't budged with any type of advisory even as the band intensifies. It's mind-boggling to me sometimes!! Yeah ppl at work were commenting that they thought only an inch or two would happen last night and most woke up to 4-8", pretty much across the board from Thruway & North. Probably even south of there also. No advisory, no warning. Now in reality, who cares? Roads were plowed and people snowblowed/shoveled their places regardless. From a hobbyist standpoint, just curious to see this juxtaposed against advisories issued for relatively weak sauce type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Thanks Delta as this seems to be some BIG news as the Bastardi crew over at WeatherBell seems to think the numbers are correct, lol and that too is embarrassing because their all relying on this Data which is clearly incorrect. I tried looking it up but coundn't find it as they were saying that Ontario completely froze over in 1934 and I said " I seriously doubt it" as I wasn't completely sure" so does anyone know this for a fact because I don't think it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's absolutely embarrassing that no one at NOAA will man up and admit that these numbers are pure bull****. Lake Ontario is probably about 20 percent ice covered right now....and that is being generous. What a farce and waste of tax dollars. I sent them emails last week chastising their lousy analysis and their response was finger pointing and diversion. A fully frozen, or "historically" frozen lake would certainly look good on the "Climate change" scrapheap of so-called proof. Not saying this is a motive, but given the other climate data fraud that's been documented, nothing would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The friggin wind has been crazy here today. Has not let up all day... has sounded like a freight train rolling through all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Ohhh and in regards to the ice on Lake Ontario well i was about 100 yards from the lake earlier today but i couldn't see the lake since the wind was blowing so friggin bad lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not sure what's going on... But visibility is like 200 feet in orchard park right now heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not sure what's going on... But visibility is like 200 feet in orchard park right now heavy snow There's definitely a band coming in off Erie as its quite evident on radar but its wicked thin maybe on the order of a couple miles wide maybe. That band straddling the South Shore heading for Irondiquot ( definitely spelled it wrong right, lol?) looks quite impressive as well so WNY is getting in on the action with a completely frozen lake to its West and an 82% frozen lake to their NW , lol, amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll tell you what, between the SN+ and BLSN in Lpool attm, conditions are at least as bad as during last nights "dangerous" squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Its articles like this that amaze me and the public reads it and believes it but their ignorant to the fact that its nowhere near frozen so the public is ill informed by the media which is usually the case anyway! http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/lake_ontario_ice_lake_effect_snow_watertown_cold_february.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll tell you what, between the SN+ and BLSN in Lpool attm, conditions are at least as bad as during last nights "dangerous" squall line. Bro its snowing so heavy right now in Clay that vis has to be under an 1/8 obviously with blowing and drifting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll just leave this here for posterity. SMH Lake Ontario Ice 021915.png That's exactly the imagery I'm looking for - where do you find it? I assume that is today (based on the lake effect streamers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'll tell you what, between the SN+ and BLSN in Lpool attm, conditions are at least as bad as during last nights "dangerous" squall line. You can almost feel the sphincter tightening as BGM issues these SWS's: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 145 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 NYZ018-036-192100- MADISON-ONONDAGA- 145 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015 ...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES... SHOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES...AFFECTING BALDWINSVILLE...SYRACUSE...CHITTENANGO AND ONEIDA. THE SNOW SHOWERS...IN COMBINATION WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WILL CAUSE SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ON AREA ROADWAYS. EXERCISE CAUTION IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not sure what's going on... But visibility is like 200 feet in orchard park right now heavy snow I'm tellin' ya...yes, nice open water is undoubtedly 5-10 fold more of an important LES component than frictional convergence.....BUT, frictional convergence (Erie and Ontario's long narrow shape...is almost perfect as such)is a very important factor...especially when there is enough ambient moisture in place, AND all other parameters in the profile are decent.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That image is from today. Here is a link to the MODIS page where I harvested that image. They certainly have some great imagery, if only they knew how to interpret and analyze it. http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php That's exactly the imagery I'm looking for - where do you find it? I assume that is today (based on the lake effect streamers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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