ayuud11 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow what a great day, first i had 3" of snow in 45 mins while i was at Niagara Falls earlier in the afternoon and now we just had 2.5" in the north towns in about an hour..These were some very intense snow squalls for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looking at the water vapor loop, I see no reason why this LES can't fire up again in the overnite. The KingCity Radar has dried up a bit, but again, the water vapor loop actually shows robust moisture. Now I don't know if its in the right level for good growth but it does show some promise. I'm content with my 4" even if it ends now- but will watch and hope for more overnite and thru friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LOL. Well, according to the 0z suite we can stop worrying about the 850 line, but it looks like we need to start worrying about a storm actually happening at all this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LOL. Well, according to the 0z suite we can stop worrying about the 850 line, but it looks like we need to start worrying about a storm actually happening at all this weekend. Not the GGEM. Still pretty amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Man, the atmosphere dried up quick! Maybe Binghampton wins this one. And I don't see any signs of seeding from the north. Our best hope is that LES is ongoing in SE Michigan, suggesting that maybe tomorrow parameters will be better? And our storm for the weekend seems to have vanished. At least the threat of rain is gone. But, dang, this might be the high point of My winter snow. Which is ok. I have a solid 24" in the yard. Drifts to 3'. I expect a lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Picked up a foot of fresh pow pow last evening into the overnight hours. Temp is down to 13 and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 here in Skaneateles/Auburn that band stayed nicely over us most of the night. In addition to the 4" last evening picked up another 4" overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Snowing pretty good along the 104 in the Roc! Nice shore hugging band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Snowing pretty good along the 104 in the Roc! Nice shore hugging band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 6.3" overnight...0.38" liquid equiv. Currently moderate snow in l'pool as the band slides north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 8" of new snow in Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 6.3" overnight...0.38" liquid equiv. Currently moderate snow in l'pool as the band slides north a bit. Drove into work (SU) and had a pretty narrow S+ band in downtown...flake size was very good!! Let's see what L. Ontario can put out later this afternoon as the flow backs a bit and some synoptic moisture backs in a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 hey, I've seen the king respond well into the wee hrs. Regarding your ski trip, I stick with my original thoughts, It would be a major storm track shift for it to torch. And a 'major' change isn't advertised. Just nuanced changes in the 850. Hell, Boston could still find a way to squeek this one out. I'm not impressed by the qpf or the storm itself. Might end up being perfect! 2-6" of snow and temps approaching the low 30's. Perfect for packed powder skiing. Not to mention the ellicottville brewery. Hey, You got an extra bed? LOL. I'm gonna check the toronto radar to see if its seeding any of the upstream. Like you said, the dynamics are drying up bad- as advdertised by the NWS BUF. But as local mets have also noted, the atmo gets better primed thursday afternoon thru Fri am. Looking forward to that. Not entirely sold on it dropping off tonite, as the 'pump has been primed'. At least the west end of the Lake. When you have a new girlfriend...late night postings will be spotty!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not to nitpick, but I will...Below is a snip from KBGM AFD...how are locations downwind of Cayuga lake going to get accums on WNW Flow. Am I missing something or did geography change overnight? WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OFCENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT,A FRESH DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOREPERSISTENT SNOWS THROUGH MID MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AREPOSSIBLE NEAR THE FINGER LAKES, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF CAYUGALAKE. BEYOND MID MORNING, OUR DEPTH OF MOISTURE REALLY DROPS OFFAS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE WEARE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH ON A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, THE COMBINATIONOF DRIER AIR AND OUR BEST SNOW GROWTH DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE (DUETO SUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE) WILL PUT A REAL DAMPER ON APPRECIABLESNOWS BY THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 How's Dr. Stamm and Ballentine doing these days? Was wondering if Ballentine ever got around to retiring, lol?? I don't have Dr. Stamm at the moment. Ballentine is still going strong but retiring after this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Late this afternoon/evening is when I think CNY's chances of getting a "nice" LES band going...Still think there will be areas that get over a foot of new snow....N. Onondaga/S. Oswego Cos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I better fuel up the snowblower again lol. Had to blow a foot out earlier this morning. Since the wind is blowing like crazy now my driveway is drifted over pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LES is still trying to flare up in some multibands, one from roughly Sodus to Lafayette, with another trying to develop over by far NW Oswego county through Fulton. Still just cloudy on the east side of campus at this point, but clouds are certainly darker to the east. We'll see if we can actually get any single band development later today as winds back a little more to the west. Personally I'll probably be just a little too far to the east to get more than an inch or two, but it will be interesting to see what happens with so much ice cover. Our tower on the very far west part of campus just dropped to 1.5 SM visibility, which means at the very least some light snow is falling in NW Oswego county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Do I detect a discontinuity here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Correct me if i'm wrong but looks like Euro and GFS (GGEM?) have all said adios to the blowtorch mix/rain scenario for the weekend. In fact, a sub advisory event is now indicated. Turns out there looks like there will be enough high pressure in front of and to the north of the system to effectively pancake storm development, with no blocking. Side note: saw Teske's forecast/blog on WSYR9...he may want to revisit some of it. Namely, looks like it isn't going to rain this weekend and exactly what signs of warmth is he looking at? Other than perhaps the calendar turns to March fairly soon. GFS out to 384 never even scares CNY with the h850/0C line although the PV eventually slackens, as it does every year. At some point this pattern is going to breakdown and it'll eventually it will be June & July again. Just not seeing consistent enough signs of it on NWP to start crowing about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Do I detect a discontinuity here? I'll bet BGM has a pretty map for Sunday's 2-4" down in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone see this? Lake Ontario is 82% frozen? ~3% from the record in 1979. http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/lake_ontario_ice_lake_effect_snow_watertown_cold_february.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 It'll be difficult to get a single band going this afternoon, even with a more westerly wind component....shallow nature of the LES, daytime land instability, and pretty high BL winds over sketchy open waters (ie lots of ice)...that said...I bet this evening/tonight, at least for a few hours, we get a solid single band going ESE of L. Ontario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Late this afternoon/evening is when I think CNY's chances of getting a "nice" LES band going...Still think there will be areas that get over a foot of new snow....N. Onondaga/S. Oswego Cos. I'm at 10.5" as of 12:30 so a foot shouldn't be a problem as the band seems to be amping up a bit as the wind back ever so slightly! This evening and tonight should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm at 10.5" as of 12:30 so a foot shouldn't be a problem as the band seems to be amping up a bit as the wind back ever so slightly! This evening and tonight should be interesting! 10.5" today? Or event total? Snowing decent here in lpool at work. Quite windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone see this? Lake Ontario is 82% frozen? ~3% from the record in 1979. http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/lake_ontario_ice_lake_effect_snow_watertown_cold_february.html Interesting, the visible sat loops I've seen today don't suggest anything near 80% ice cover. Where can you get the really hi res pics? I've been looking at the 1 km loops on the COD site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 10.5" today? Or event total? Snowing decent here in lpool at work. Quite windy. total so far bro, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Correct me if i'm wrong but looks like Euro and GFS (GGEM?) have all said adios to the blowtorch mix/rain scenario for the weekend. In fact, a sub advisory event is now indicated. Turns out there looks like there will be enough high pressure in front of and to the north of the system to effectively pancake storm development, with no blocking. Side note: saw Teske's forecast/blog on WSYR9...he may want to revisit some of it. Namely, looks like it isn't going to rain this weekend and exactly what signs of warmth is he looking at? Other than perhaps the calendar turns to March fairly soon. GFS out to 384 never even scares CNY with the h850/0C line although the PV eventually slackens, as it does every year. At some point this pattern is going to breakdown and it'll eventually it will be June & July again. Just not seeing consistent enough signs of it on NWP to start crowing about it yet. Dave Longley at noon finally lowered the forecast highs for Sunday from 38 to 34. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't break freezing. Last night Dave Eichorn was announcing how there are record highs in Alaska and Siberia and that there was going to be a big pattern change in 10 days. I don't know if they feel that the general public wants to hear that this winter is going to end but they really seem to be going out of their way to emphasize any glimmer of a warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Interesting, the visible sat loops I've seen today don't suggest anything near 80% ice cover. Where can you get the really hi res pics? I've been looking at the 1 km loops on the COD site. There's NO WAY its 82% covered and I don't care where their getting their data from, lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is there a criteria for ice cover? I mean, does it have to be a certain thickness and whatnot for it to actually be called ice cover? I'm sure there are certain areas of LO covered by a thin sheet of ice, would that be considered ice cover? Just wondering if anybody knows a quick answer cause I don't feel like doing any research for the answer, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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