Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Upstate NY/North Country and Canadian/VT Borders Mid Feb. 2015 through end of Winter


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

That band over L Ont is finally making it into the Roc north towns. Albeit in a modified form. like the last couple LES events, very small flake size. That Band that extended from wayne thru syracuse was influenced by the front. It will probably stick around the Hannibal thru Fulton region before the flow turns more Northerly- see the west side of lake orientation- NW-SE. The flakes have increased to mid size, visibility very low @1/2 mile, but accums only .25"/hr. We did get around 2" so far today, but moslty due to earlier squall w front. Good luck all! Good fcst KING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, the 00Z GooFuS is running...overall looks somewhat more in line with 18Z, in that its colder than the 12Z or 00Z before that.  I'd guess still going to be some mixing and/or ice issues particularly from Elmira / BGM to ALB but the previous quick hitting blow torch seems off the table for now, for most of us.  The 850/0C line gets to about a BGM to ALB line by hr 84 but pushes off east after that. Haven't parsed qpf, and really, why bother this far out as its the worst field, but I'd guess a solid advisory type system from the looks of it. Maybe low grade WSW where its snow and definitely where there's ice, if the profile supports ice.  Haven't looked at a skew T for BGM or ALB yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, the 00Z GooFuS is running...overall looks somewhat more in line with 18Z, in that its colder than the 12Z or 00Z before that.  I'd guess still going to be some mixing and/or ice issues particularly from Elmira / BGM to ALB but the previous quick hitting blow torch seems off the table for now, for most of us.  The 850/0C line gets to about a BGM to ALB line by hr 84 but pushes off east after that. Haven't parsed qpf, and really, why bother this far out as its the worst field, but I'd guess a solid advisory type system from the looks of it. Maybe low grade WSW where its snow and definitely where there's ice, if the profile supports ice.  Haven't looked at a skew T for BGM or ALB yet.

 

Latest GFS makes me happy. At the worst a few hours of mixed precip and back to snow. Should be a great holiday valley trip.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey King, already closing in on 4-5" for event. 2 from the earlier front. But that lake band is intense. So much for no dendrite growth and too much ice! LOL.

King is probably busy with other matters. ;) Or sleeping like an old man that he is.  I think the DGZ issues are going to come to fruition...there's a lot of cold/dry air inbound, and moisture seems to get robbed by the developing coastal.  But, if you notice, moisture does seem to reappear later Thurs or Fri on the models, which might help reinitiate some LES if the other parameters haven't crashed and burned by then.  Which I think LEK mentioned/alluded to in an earlier missive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hey, I've seen the king respond well into the wee hrs. Regarding your ski trip, I stick with my original thoughts, It would be a major storm track shift for it to torch. And a 'major' change isn't advertised. Just nuanced changes in the 850. Hell, Boston could still find a way to squeek this one out. I'm not impressed by the qpf or the storm itself. Might end up being perfect! 2-6" of snow and temps approaching the low 30's. Perfect for packed powder skiing. Not to mention the ellicottville brewery. Hey, You got an extra bed? LOL.

I'm gonna check the toronto radar to see if its seeding any of the upstream. Like you said, the dynamics are drying up bad- as advdertised by the NWS BUF. But as local mets have also noted, the atmo gets better primed thursday afternoon thru Fri am. Looking forward to that. Not entirely sold on it dropping off tonite, as the 'pump has been primed'. At least the west end of the Lake.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...