Revracer800 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wondering about that snow band also vortmax. Dave Longley on 9WSY only has1-4" for cny and 2-4" for the finger lakes area through 7 pm tomorrow night. He doesn't seem very thrilled about the lake effect. Longley has a temp of 38 Sunday and rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Now I see where KBUF is getting their data from for this event as it has to be the RGEM as it mimic's their mao to a T! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wondering about that snow band also vortmax. Dave Longley on 9WSY only has1-4" for cny and 2-4" for the finger lakes area through 7 pm tomorrow night. He doesn't seem very thrilled about the lake effect. Longley has a temp of 38 Sunday and rain/snow mix looks like everyone is all over the place with this one,lol. Alls I know is this, whoever busts, is gonna get some wicked backlash whether its WSYR's Longley or the NWS' astute forecasters from either KBUF or KBGM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Bust has been a popular word on the forums all winter lol. I'm not expecting much to be honest. All i do know it that it's gonna be cold as hell again the next couple day's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm sick and tired of NWS throwing around the word "dangerous". Give me a f*cking break. If you get stuck outside in mid winter conditions around here, it's almost always dangerous if you're not prepared and the unfortunate occurs. There's nothing special incoming that doesn't exist to a large extent on many days using the winter. Is it cold? Yes. But we've all spent many hours outside in it and guess what...it wasn't "dangerous." Perhaps they should use more appropriate wording: "Dangerous to those on Darwins Waiting List." It's too subjective and frankly, histrionic, Weather Channelesque. End of spurious rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 UGH BUST coming here tonight. No snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hints of a meso low developing over L. Ontario....BTW, most of the models are doing very poorly wrt the band over L. Ontario....this indicates to me that those mets relying on modeling are going to have their eyes opened....really think this will be a now cast "catching up" type LES event....again...nothing enormous, but more significant than most forecasts (except BUF's more bullishness)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Been keeping my eye on that meso for last hr. Pushing snow west of it south. At same time pushing band east of it North. Clearly there is circulation. IF that meso comes on shore it would snow like heck in a 20 mile diameter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That band straddling the Southern shore of LO looks rather intense but resides over water but looks like its making a push for the shore so thgere could be some intense stuff there shortly. Not naming the county as I am not sure of the name, lol. The one to the West of Monroe, there you go, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just perused the KBUF meso models. Gotta say, not looking very impressive...in fact they blow out any moisture tomorrow and pretty much just leave us high and dry. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Saw that as well, but I will say this, whatever coming at us from the West gaining moisture and looking like returns are getting heavier as it advance Eastward! The Cuse is gonna get nicely crushed for a good while I think but we'll see. Still think the event synoptically overperforms then LE or both combined, who knows, lol. No one model is handling this situation correctly IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 There's nothing special incoming that doesn't exist to a large extent on many days using the winter. Is it cold? Yes. I beg to differ...this is once in multiple decades cold. Combined with the wind, frostbite happens quickly in these conditions that most people around here don't understand or are used to. JMHO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's gonna snow and snow hard .........for 30 minutes! I am ready to be outside for the yellows and oranges that better build north to Phoenix god dam it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I have pixie dust falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 lol, I'm at the fastrac in Phoenix! Gonna snow very hard here real soon and for more than 30 minutes as that's gonna stall right ova us, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's just starting to snow here but radar looks like a Xmas. Tree just to the west lol. Gonna snow harddddd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 lol, I'm at the fastrac in Phoenix! Gonna snow very hard here real soon and for more than 30 minutes as that's gonna stall right ova us, lol! What are you smoking dude??? Just kidding. You got another 30 to 45 minutes at the Fastrac at least. Not sure the heaviest returns make it this far north. Could break apart a bit. Cool to watch it build on radar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I beg to differ...this is once in multiple decades cold. Combined with the wind, frostbite happens quickly in these conditions that most people around here don't understand or are used to. JMHO.... Well, we'll have to disagree and that's ok. I utterly dosage with NWS's characterization...Maybe at h850 it is such, but no one lives there and fewer care. We were -15F the other morning, and had other days with equivalent wind chill values. No one is predicting a repeat of those actual temperatures from what I can see. At least not here around KSYR. We have wind chill advisory or warning conditions in CNY virtually every winter, save for the milder ones, it's certainly not an unusual occurance. KART has been -20 to -30 several times since I've lived here, similar to the other night. What's been impressive, to me, is the persistence of the anomalous cold pattern since early January and especially in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 lol, I'm at the fastrac in Phoenix! Gonna snow very hard here real soon and for more than 30 minutes as that's gonna stall right ova us, lol!. Hey I can be there in 5 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That meso low/LES band looks sexy. I'm about to go chase that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Penn Yan had 32mph wind gust with heavy snow at 7 if that means anything. Very calm winds today in general across the area so may be a bit of a treat when it comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We picked up an inch of new snow here today. Just wiped the board off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That band looks to be tea kettling more than anything right now, very juicy but reliant on that warm water. I'm not sure how well it will hold up when it comes ashore. Winds are currently very weak over the entire lake, that should change soon as the surface low deepens and solidifies. The hourly mesoscale page will be useful tonight http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hints of a meso low developing over L. Ontario....BTW, most of the models are doing very poorly wrt the band over L. Ontario....this indicates to me that those mets relying on modeling are going to have their eyes opened....really think this will be a now cast "catching up" type LES event....again...nothing enormous, but more significant than most forecasts (except BUF's more bullishness)... New map is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I want some of what the GFS is smoking. 2 feet+ across the deep south. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I want some of what the GFS is smoking. 2 feet+ across the deep south. Gotta love it. It must be showing mix/ZR as snow...I'd agree that's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's dumping snow here right now... flakes are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 New map is out. They might want to up the totals in Niagara cty a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 They might want to up the totals in Niagara cty a bit... That 14-18" SE of Lake Ontario magically disappeared. Probably a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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