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Upstate NY/North Country and Canadian/VT Borders Mid Feb. 2015 through end of Winter


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Wondering about that snow band also vortmax.

Dave Longley on 9WSY only has1-4" for cny and 2-4" for the finger lakes area through 7 pm tomorrow night. He doesn't seem very thrilled about the lake effect.

Longley has a temp of 38 Sunday and rain/snow mix

looks like everyone is all over the place with this one,lol.  Alls I know is this, whoever busts, is gonna get some wicked backlash whether its WSYR's Longley or the NWS' astute forecasters from either KBUF or KBGM!!

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I'm sick and tired of NWS throwing around the word "dangerous". Give me a f*cking break. If you get stuck outside in mid winter conditions around here, it's almost always dangerous if you're not prepared and the unfortunate occurs. There's nothing special incoming that doesn't exist to a large extent on many days using the winter. Is it cold? Yes. But we've all spent many hours outside in it and guess what...it wasn't "dangerous." Perhaps they should use more appropriate wording: "Dangerous to those on Darwins Waiting List." It's too subjective and frankly, histrionic, Weather Channelesque. End of spurious rant.

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Hints of a meso low developing over L. Ontario....BTW, most of the models are doing very poorly wrt the band over L. Ontario....this indicates to me that those mets relying on modeling are going to have their eyes opened....really think this will be a now cast "catching up" type LES event....again...nothing enormous, but more significant than most forecasts (except BUF's more bullishness)...

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Saw that as well, but I will say this, whatever coming at us from the West gaining moisture and looking like returns are getting heavier as it advance Eastward! The Cuse is gonna get nicely crushed for a good while I think but we'll see. Still think the event synoptically overperforms then LE or both combined, who knows, lol. No one model is handling this situation correctly IMO.

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There's nothing special incoming that doesn't exist to a large extent on many days using the winter. Is it cold? Yes.

 

I beg to differ...this is once in multiple decades cold. Combined with the wind, frostbite happens quickly in these conditions that most people around here don't understand or are used to. JMHO...

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lol, I'm at the fastrac in Phoenix! Gonna snow very hard here real soon and for more than 30 minutes as that's gonna stall right ova us, lol!

What are you smoking dude??? Just kidding. You got another 30 to 45 minutes at the Fastrac at least. Not sure the heaviest returns make it this far north. Could break apart a bit. Cool to watch it build on radar though.

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I beg to differ...this is once in multiple decades cold. Combined with the wind, frostbite happens quickly in these conditions that most people around here don't understand or are used to. JMHO...

. Well, we'll have to disagree and that's ok. I utterly dosage with NWS's characterization...Maybe at h850 it is such, but no one lives there and fewer care. We were -15F the other morning, and had other days with equivalent wind chill values. No one is predicting a repeat of those actual temperatures from what I can see. At least not here around KSYR. We have wind chill advisory or warning conditions in CNY virtually every winter, save for the milder ones, it's certainly not an unusual occurance. KART has been -20 to -30 several times since I've lived here, similar to the other night. What's been impressive, to me, is the persistence of the anomalous cold pattern since early January and especially in February.
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That band looks to be tea kettling more than anything right now, very juicy but reliant on that warm water.  I'm not sure how well it will hold up when it comes ashore. 

 

Winds are currently very weak over the entire lake, that should change soon as the surface low deepens and solidifies. 

 

The hourly mesoscale page will be useful tonight

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

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Hints of a meso low developing over L. Ontario....BTW, most of the models are doing very poorly wrt the band over L. Ontario....this indicates to me that those mets relying on modeling are going to have their eyes opened....really think this will be a now cast "catching up" type LES event....again...nothing enormous, but more significant than most forecasts (except BUF's more bullishness)...

 

New map is out.

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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