AppsRunner Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Awesome analysis @AppsRunner. hope I'm not sitting 5 miles too far south for this one. Had a couple of those this season already, though not particularly unusual. I need ~290 flow, which never seems to be all that stable. I saw the Lake Effect Snow Watch alert pop up on my phone and thought it was some sort of delayed data, LOL. No way BGM puts up flags until nearer the event. Thanks! I'm a freshman met major but I'm hoping to learn as much as possible now rather than later. That 280-290 flow is always very difficult to sustain. Part of it is the setup needed to obtain that wind flow is very difficult to maintain for several hours at a time. At the very least a 280-285 looks like it may develop Wednesday night and last through the morning before shifting further south for the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Thanks! I'm a freshman met major but I'm hoping to learn as much as possible now rather than later. That 280-290 flow is always very difficult to sustain. Part of it is the setup needed to obtain that wind flow is very difficult to maintain for several hours at a time. At the very least a 280-285 looks like it may develop Wednesday night and last through the morning before shifting further south for the main show. In my experience (40+ years of tracking Ontario LES) a lot of times that elusive 290 quasi-stationary band is dependent on upstream connections with Huron or Geo. Bay, both of which are only able to offer a frictional convergence "seed" for Ontario, with both pretty much closed for business with respect to cloud seeding/moisture flux....BUT, we will have essentially a trough/secondary arctic front draping just north of L. Ontario to start the event, which should help to focus the convergence over the major axis of the open areas of Ontario. As this settles southward early Thurs. morning, there will be a period of intense rates...and if that trough just weakens in place or gets absorbed into the band with no real "push" to bodily sweep the band off the south shore....there will be some very nice rates falling for some time under that band. Lake induced instability looks really good, and has for some time. Just hope the cap doesn't crash faster than progged, as is sometimes the case with an airmass pushing down from the due north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 How's everyone doing on temps? I'm at -8, already colder than last night. Pushing toward the low for the season (-10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 -6 here in L'pool at this time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 -4 IMBY, the low here was -10 this a.m., per the wife, I slept in. KSYR with -17 was impressive. I'm about 2 degrees colder than same time last night although conditions might be ok to radiate out some, except for high cirrus. I'm sort of excited for wed-fri as I'm sure we'll get something, but I've learned not to get too amped. Places just to my north do much better. All too often the old broom comes thru and knocks a solid band right thru us and off the lake. Or the juiciest part of a single band structure just toys with us. Either way, usually results in a 3-6" type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 -4 in my neck of the woods. Got down to -7 last night. -20 in Barnes Corners and Saranac Lake at 11pm YIKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Im hoping that band can settle a bit SW and affect those of us in Northern Monroe County. NWS is advertising high end advisory levels, but nobody at this point can predict a 285 flow or a 300. I'll be following this one closely. Great analysis APP Runner. And as always, great input KING. He knows as much or more about LES in NY than anyone I've ever known. Called this last event perfectly, even when I had serious doubts. Ended up with a 10" snowfall in Irondequoit. But heard tell of totals around 18" or so in Webster. Roc Airport claimed less than 4"- total BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Im hoping that band can settle a bit SW and affect those of us in Northern Monroe County. NWS is advertising high end advisory levels, but nobody at this point can predict a 285 flow or a 300. I'll be following this one closely. Great analysis APP Runner. And as always, great input KING. He knows as much or more about LES in NY than anyone I've ever known. Called this last event perfectly, even when I had serious doubts. Ended up with a 10" snowfall in Irondequoit. But heard tell of totals around 18" or so in Webster. Roc Airport claimed less than 4"- total BS. Thanks Dave, but Delta, Nick, and others here have just as much, if not more met knowledge wrt LES....especially L. Erie. I will say, because of the individual details, unique to each lake, I have studied, lived, and been involved with just about every LES event over the last 40 years to some degree.....the knowledge, experience and conceptualized physical aspects of LES around Ontario, do provide value as a forecaster...ie....I'm old and getting older!!! LOL As long as there is LES, LEK will be learning until the day they dig a hole for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like the Euro is definitely up in the air about this weekends HP that moves into the Plains cause at 12Z it had this: And tonight's run looks like this: Thats a significant difference with respect to temps as well as the system. Mean while the GFS was starting to move closer to the Euro with tonights run, but now it looks to me like their both trying to show a glorified CF with some pre frontal moisture riding up along the front as it moves through. First the LE. then the synoptic event as one may be very dependent on what the other does, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The odd thing is this: I like the random nature and unpredictableness of LES. Sometimes the synoptic storms with the high accuracy of the models, takes away some of the fun. Living on the South Shore Of Lake Ontario, restores my belief in the randomness of Mother Nature and her occasional fury! I'll take a surprise Lake effect event of 6" any day over the well fcst 6" synoptic event. Is that weird? But it can be frustrating. All perameters met, and NO SNOW at all is also part of this game. I've been under Lake Effect Warnings many times whilst looking up at stars. This year is interesting and unique in that the lakes are approaching record high levels of ice. But more and more I wonder if open water is as necessary as we once believed. People in the Boston Hills; South of Lake Erie can attest, that even when Erie is entirely frozen, there is plenty of snow to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 LAKE EFFECT SNOW...SEE LITTLE REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT LAKEEFFECT SNOW WATCH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WAYNE COUNTY TOOSWEGO COUNTY FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAYAFTERNOON. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WORKING OVERHEAD IS IMPRESSIVE...WITH500 MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING -50C BRINGING A NICE UPTICK TO ALREADYSTEEP LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...WITHINVERSION HEIGHTS UP OVER 10K FEET AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SIGNALSFOR A SOLID LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND POINTED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ENDOF LAKE ONTARIO...POSSIBLY EVEN HUGGING THE ENTIRE SHORELINE...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS A BIT LOWER...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED ATA LATER POINT.THOUGH THERE ARE IMPRESSIVE LAKE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...THE ONENEGATIVE IN THIS SETUP IS THE VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILES...WITH THEDENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARING RESULTING IN SMALLFLAKE SIZE AND VERY LOW RATIOS. EVEN IF WARNING AMOUNTS CAN NOTULTIMATELY BE REACHED FOR THIS EVENT...INHERENTLY THIS TYPE OF SNOWWILL RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES WITH A GOOD DEAL OF BLOWING SNOW ANDTHIS MAY EVENTUALLY TIP THE SCALES TOWARD AN UPGRADE AT A LATERPOINT.UPSLOPE COMPONENT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL GENERATE ACCUMULATINGSNOWS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUARIDGE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR HEADLINES AS WELL. Whoever wrote this mornings discussion isn't at all too enthused about the set-up for this upcoming LES event! Seems as though all the parameters are there except snow growth. Not even thinking warning amounts now. Then what justified raising flags some 48hrs before the event. Its situations like this where I commend KBGM for waiting sometimes 12 hrs before issuing any headlines! Not saying their right as far as the event is concerned because it can and will still be a nice event but I don't think it needed flags 48hrs prior, but who am I other than a taxpayer, lol. I'll stick with LEK's thinking as experience overrides models any day IMO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 LAKE EFFECT SNOW...SEE LITTLE REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO OSWEGO COUNTY FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WORKING OVERHEAD IS IMPRESSIVE...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING -50C BRINGING A NICE UPTICK TO ALREADY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS UP OVER 10K FEET AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SIGNALS FOR A SOLID LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND POINTED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...POSSIBLY EVEN HUGGING THE ENTIRE SHORELINE... CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS A BIT LOWER...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED AT A LATER POINT. THOUGH THERE ARE IMPRESSIVE LAKE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...THE ONE NEGATIVE IN THIS SETUP IS THE VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILES...WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARING RESULTING IN SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND VERY LOW RATIOS. EVEN IF WARNING AMOUNTS CAN NOT ULTIMATELY BE REACHED FOR THIS EVENT...INHERENTLY THIS TYPE OF SNOW WILL RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES WITH A GOOD DEAL OF BLOWING SNOW AND THIS MAY EVENTUALLY TIP THE SCALES TOWARD AN UPGRADE AT A LATER POINT. UPSLOPE COMPONENT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR HEADLINES AS WELL. Whoever wrote this mornings discussion isn't at all too enthused about the set-up for this upcoming LES event! Seems as though all the parameters are there except snow growth. Not even thinking warning amounts now. Then what justified raising flags some 48hrs before the event. Its situations like this where I commend KBGM for waiting sometimes 12 hrs before issuing any headlines! Not saying their right as far as the event is concerned because it can and will still be a nice event but I don't think it needed flags 48hrs prior, but who am I other than a taxpayer, lol. I'll stick with LEK's thinking as experience overrides models any day IMO!! NWS BUF mentioned "measured in feet" written by different forecaster yesterday....today with essentially the same parameters progged, a different take, from a different forecaster. IMO, there certainly should be concerns about snow growth, but my experience is that through the convergence band, there will be an ever increasing layer of a decent snow growth layer as you progress eastward down the length of the band, and should be sufficient to realize totals "in the feet" especially with what looks to be a solid duration event with minimal movement, once the band becomes established....there will be 2-3"/hr. stuff...once the cap lowers/crashes...then the snow growth will become poor....but I anticipate this later in the event...late Thurs. night into Fri. morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Feb 07 did just fine with super cold temps. There was thunder in that band with 850s of -25c. The depth of that cold will be more than sufficient to make up for less than ideal dendritic growth conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This cold can go. I've reached my breaking point; I work outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 One of the things I'm most curious about is how hi-res models will handle any bands with this. Just about every one struggle with the last event here and I'm curious how poorly models will do for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Agreed. I hate this cold, looking forward to the weekend. Mid 20s!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like a 3-5" event has popped up for tomorrow afternoon-evening in the wake of the synoptic event to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Ggem and gfs hopped on the euros path for storm this weekend. Looking like a solid over running event for most of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Ggem and gfs hopped on the euros path for storm this weekend. Looking like a solid over running event for most of the forum. Indeed they did, certainly looks like there will be some ice issues in Southern NY/PA but we are still a ways out. Also, the 12z GFS kind of poops on the LES event that many are tracking. The 850 low closes off and is much further southeast than previous runs, winds look to remain Northwesterly for most of the time when synoptic moisture is present. The NAM still looks alright though. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Indeed they did, certainly looks like there will be some ice issues in Southern NY/PA but we are still a ways out. Also, the 12z GFS kind of poops on the LES event that many are tracking. The 850 low closes off and is much further southeast than previous runs, winds look to remain Northwesterly for most of the time when synoptic moisture is present. The NAM still looks alright though. Should be interesting. Yeah....a lot of the models are latching on to development of an LP just off the coast of MA....which screws with the winds a bit initially (ie...LES delayed by 6-10 hours)....so decent LES, IMO should commence early Thurs. morning into Fri. morning. Still liking some pretty big numbers for areas SE of Ontario....maybe 5-10 miles further south than I originally was thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Temps for my ski trip this weekend look perfect. Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Tomorrow 18Z is the furthest it goes so its time to see how the Meso models out of KBUF handle this Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 300 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 NYZ004>006-180400- /O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0004.150219T0500Z-150220T1500Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0005.150219T0000Z-150220T1800Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO 300 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING OVER A FOOT IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES....UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * WIND CHILL VALUES...10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... 15 TO 20 BELOW THURSDAY AND AS LOW AS 30 BELOW THURSDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DANGEROUS COLD AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF YOU ARE NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 KBUF is talking about "A WELL ALIGNED 300 FLOW"...isn't that borderline single-band territory impacting the south shore from NE Monroe to N Cayuga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This cold can go. I've reached my breaking point; I work outside LOL A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS...ONCE IN A GENERATION...+PNA PATTERN WILL DOMINATE NORTH AMERICA FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...AS A NR 50 DEG LATITUDINALLY DEEP TROUGH (-4 STD) OVER THE CONTINENT WILL CONTINUE TO HOST THE COLDEST AIR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ANOTHER CHUNK OF THIS FRIGID AIR WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE FIRST OF TWO ROBUST SHORTWAVES WILL PLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING...PUSHING YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT ONLY GENERATE A BURST OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER NEAR RECORD SETTING COLD AIRMASS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEPENING COLD AIR WITHIN A SYNOPTICALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL THEN SUPPORT ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. WHILE MODERATELY SHEARED WINDS WILL STILL BE VEERING TO 300-310 DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...A CAP OVER 10K FT AND THE DEEP MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD LEAD TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT THOUGH...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE CURRENT WATCH AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO RE-EXAMINE. ALONG WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THESE READINGS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS AVERAGING 10 MPH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW. WHILE THIS ONLY MEETS WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...AFTER MUCH DEBATE/ DISCUSSION HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING BECAUSE THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL ONLY DROP FROM THIS POINT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE EVERY BIT AS COLD AS THE ONE FROM THE WEEKEND...SO WE FEEL THERE IS NO NEED TO HOLD BACK ON ALERTING THE PUBLIC TO THE HAZARD. ON THURSDAY...THE BROAD VORTEX WITHIN THE BASE OF THE EXTRAORDINARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. HGT AND TEMP VALUES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE NEARLY OFF THE SCALE IN TERMS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES AND RETURN INTERVALS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY REGIONWIDE. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES NORTH AND EAST OF ROCHESTER TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. H85 TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN -28 AND -30C...AND THIS WILL EASILY SUPPORT OVERNIGHT MINS THAT WILL RANGE FROM -5 TO -10F IN THE LAKE EFFECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO -15F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE PRODUCED BETWEEN THE APPROACHING ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MID WEST AND A DEEP COASTAL LOW... WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AVERAGING 30 BELOW. THIS WILL BE THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME FOR THOSE THAT MAY BE OUTDOORS. MEANWHILE...A WELL ALIGNED 300 FLOW WILL KEEP ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS IN PLACE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GEFS look much better for the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Love NASA's satellite shot from today https://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/16377733089/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 KBGM AFD urinates a all over the LES potential. Guess I'll have to enjoy my 1-4". Maybe an inch or two in squall line also. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 so according to the Bing disco, they have an anologue check list. Very cool. Not so cool for this event. It turns out it is too Cold for LES. They mention that one of the factors is the ice level on the eastern half. Not much ice on western half though, so hopefully we still get some action going! Also watching this weekends stretched out front and low. Could be worth a 3-6 event regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 KBGM's afternoon AFD .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BLASTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -20 TO -24C ON NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY WILL FALL TO ADVY CRITERIA AND HAVE MENTIONED IN HWO FOR NOW. IN ADDTN...A 290-300 DEGREE FLOW PATTERN WILL KICK START SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DOWN THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR. BUT SINCE IT WILL BE SO COLD AND DRY AND THE ERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...I THINK WE WILL SEE SUB WARNING AMNTS. AT THIS TIME...GOING FOR 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS ARE ALL COLDER THAN THE ICE CRYSTAL MAXIMUM GROWTH REGIME PLUS THE AIR COMING ACRS THE PARTIALLY ICE COVERED LAKE IS VERY DRY. OUR LOCAL LES CHECKLIST DOES NOT RETURN ANY EVENTS OVER 6 INCHES. MOST EVENTS ARE IN THE 1-4 OR 2-5 INCH RANGE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS LES IN HWO. THE LES CONTINUES IN THESE AREAS UNTIL FRI AM. KBUF's AFD THE FIRST OF TWO ROBUST SHORTWAVES WILL PLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING...PUSHING YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT ONLY GENERATE A BURST OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER NEAR RECORD SETTING COLD AIRMASS FOR THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEPENING COLD AIR WITHIN A SYNOPTICALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL THEN SUPPORT ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. WHILE MODERATELY SHEARED WINDS WILL STILL BE VEERING TO 300-310 DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...A CAP OVER 10K FT AND THE DEEP MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD LEAD TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT THOUGH...SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE CURRENT WATCH AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO RE-EXAMINE. KBGM talks about how dry the airmass will be while KBUF talks about the deep moisture field. Are they even looking at the same models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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