WNYLakeEffect Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Low of -22 in Lakewood last night, after a daytime high of -4 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 -7.2 this morning. No colder than a number of mornings these past 2 winters. I can't figure out what is going on with the ROC snow numbers. It's almost like they are using a random number generator. But looking at the climate summary, it looks like they reported a storm total of 5.5" which meshes pretty well with my local estimate of 6". So, who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still really liking the potential for a 24-36 hour LES event starting Wednesday evening through Thursday night/Friday morning. gfsNE_700_rhum_069.gif The GFS has a beautiful looking broad cyclonic flow over Lake Ontario with a lot of moisture to work with. Using lake temps of 34, BUFKIT profiles show LI CAPEs of ~1000-1200 J/kg, along with EL rapidly rising to near 15k ft Wednesday evening. This flow wavers back and forth between roughly 280-295 for about 30 hours before BL winds turn more north-northwesterly and mid levels dry out considerably. The ECM is relatively similar although much less optimistic on total moisture availability. I ran text output for FZY, and it does have a 24 hour period of 280/290 flow, although the BL looks to be a little more sheared then I would like to see. temp1.gif One thing I continue to worry about is how hi-res models will treat the half frozen lake. Hi-res models did absolutely awful with the single band off Ontario last week which brought parts of Oswego county over a foot of snow in a short period of time. The 4km NAM (above) had a very weak signature for LES, but continues to mis-interpret loose ice cover on Ontario, giving flawed surface outputs like the one shown above for this morning. The map clearly shows that the NAM is essentially treating part of the lake like land, which can severely limit how hi-res guidance will do with any Lake snows. The latest 1km satellite shows the majority of the Lake still is open water, with ice concentrated on both the north and south shores of the Lake. It's hard not to like a sounding like this: 06_GFS_066_43.44,-76.53_skewt_ML.gif From what I've personally seen and talked about with a lot of others at SUNY Oswego, this is arguably the best setup for Oswego county this year (although potentially the early January event had a slightly better setup). The one thing I personally do not like is how fast the DGZ gets killed off by Thursday AM. Other than that, this looks like a good single band event for southeast of Ontario. I know there are some mets here that know a lot more then I do, so I'm curious as to what your thoughts are at this point! Awesome, love the analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The lake effect clouds from Ontario were over the airport overnight. Radiational cooling was not able to drop the temperature there. Only reached -10. Watertown hit -36!. Jamestown hit -30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Niagara Falls has frozen over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow! Those are cool night time pictures with the colored lights illuminating the shapes created by the accretion of ice on the rocks. Looks surreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think those were pics from last year....but not sure....but needless to say, we certainly have had cold enough temps to replicate those images!! BTW, NWS BUF REALLY likes the potential for LES SE of Ontario....enough so to issue a LES Watch 48+ hours in advance!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY1118 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015NYZ004>006-170030-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.150219T0000Z-150220T1800Z/WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO1118 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENINGTHROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.* TIMING...FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING OVER 7 INCHES.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.* VISIBILITIES....UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 10 FRIDAY.* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS.* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ISPOSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think those were pics from last year....but not sure....but needless to say, we certainly have had cold enough temps to replicate those images!! BTW, NWS BUF REALLY likes the potential for LES SE of Ontario....enough so to issue a LES Watch 48+ hours in advance!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1118 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 NYZ004>006-170030- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.150219T0000Z-150220T1800Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO 1118 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING OVER 7 INCHES. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES....UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 10 FRIDAY. * IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. It's sunny out today, will be able to get a good idea on where the ice coverage is on Ontario. Looks like a 3 day event which could really add up if the band stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's sunny out today, will be able to get a good idea on where the ice coverage is on Ontario. Looks like a 3 day event which could really add up if the band stalls. At least according to GLERL things aren't matching up. There's still signiicantly more open water than what is suggested. 4km NAM already developing a band at hr. 60 even with it's roghly 1/3 of the lake open at initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 New_York.vis.gif At least according to GLERL things aren't matching up. There's still signiicantly more open water than what is suggested. 4km NAM already developing a band at hr. 60 even with it's roghly 1/3 of the lake open at initialization. It's hard to tell if that patch over the east central part of the lake is ice or cloud cover. Even if it's ice it's probably broken up. Same with the patch off Sandy Pond/Scriba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Satellite loops don't show any (or minor) movement whereas other cloud features do...so most of it looks to be ice. How thick, no idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 BUF: HAVE RAISED POPS TO 90 OR HIGHER FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHEREACCUMULATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BEMEASURED IN FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 BUF: HAVE RAISED POPS TO 90 OR HIGHER FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE MEASURED IN FEET. Nice, Very Nice, lol, I guess we can start digging tunnels around here come Friday if what their alluding to comes to fruition. Can't get any more Southern than me in Oswego County!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Awesome analysis @AppsRunner. hope I'm not sitting 5 miles too far south for this one. Had a couple of those this season already, though not particularly unusual. I need ~290 flow, which never seems to be all that stable. I saw the Lake Effect Snow Watch alert pop up on my phone and thought it was some sort of delayed data, LOL. No way BGM puts up flags until nearer the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 BUF: HAVE RAISED POPS TO 90 OR HIGHER FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE MEASURED IN FEET. Looks good! Can't wait to see that band. I'll be in Rochester training tomorrow, I wish I was going thurs! I'll be in Ellicottville from Fri-Sun. The storm system this weekend looks solid on the Euro, hopefully other models hop on board to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lake Effect: A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO OSWEGOCOUNTY FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THE INTENSIFYING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIOWEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTUREFIELD...A CAP ABV 10K FT AND AT LEAST INITIALLY...A 2-3K FTDENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.MANY OF THESE PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN ABSENT FROM RECENT LAKE SNOWEVENTS...SO FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THERE APPEARS TO BE THEPOTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPSTO 90 OR HIGHER FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHEREACCUMULATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BEMEASURED IN FEET. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FROM NIAGARATO MONROE COUNTY AS WELL...BUT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT IT LOOKS MORELIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT FOR THOSE PARTICULAR COUNTIES. Possible storm this weekend: AS PACIFIC ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VCNTY OF OKLAHOMA WILL SPAWN A STORM SYSTEM THATCOULD EVENTUALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST. THEDEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL ACCELERATE THEWARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IN TURN WILLPROMOTE SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS.THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TO THE LOWEROHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTENDTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS TROUGH COULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE H85 TEMPSCLIMBING TO -4C OR SO WILL SUPPORT NOTICEABLY MILDER SFC CONDITIONS.MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES.IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME VERY INTERESTING ACROSS OUR REGIONSATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTEDTO LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS TRACK WOULD SUPPORT ACCUMULATINGSNOW DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO AN ICY MIXDURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUSMEDIUM RANGE PACKAGES...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH AN ICEYET...BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING.THE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN ADVANCE NORTHEAST AND EXIT OUR REGION VIANEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR CHARGING BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREATLAKES IN ITS WAKE WOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED PCPN BACK TO SNOW AS LATEMORNING MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S WOULD TUMBLE BACK THROUGH THE TEENS INTHE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro says game on, the GFS says "what storm?" At least we have something to track.... Lake Effect: A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO OSWEGOCOUNTY FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. THE INTENSIFYING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIOWEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH A FAIRLY DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTUREFIELD...A CAP ABV 10K FT AND AT LEAST INITIALLY...A 2-3K FTDENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.MANY OF THESE PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN ABSENT FROM RECENT LAKE SNOWEVENTS...SO FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THERE APPEARS TO BE THEPOTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPSTO 90 OR HIGHER FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHEREACCUMULATIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BEMEASURED IN FEET. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FROM NIAGARATO MONROE COUNTY AS WELL...BUT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT IT LOOKS MORELIKE A HIGH END ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT FOR THOSE PARTICULAR COUNTIES. Possible storm this weekend: AS PACIFIC ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VCNTY OF OKLAHOMA WILL SPAWN A STORM SYSTEM THATCOULD EVENTUALLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL EXIT OFF THE COAST. THEDEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL ACCELERATE THEWARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IN TURN WILLPROMOTE SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS.THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TO THE LOWEROHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTENDTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS TROUGH COULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WHILE H85 TEMPSCLIMBING TO -4C OR SO WILL SUPPORT NOTICEABLY MILDER SFC CONDITIONS.MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 20S ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES.IT COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME VERY INTERESTING ACROSS OUR REGIONSATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTEDTO LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS TRACK WOULD SUPPORT ACCUMULATINGSNOW DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO AN ICY MIXDURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUSMEDIUM RANGE PACKAGES...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH AN ICEYET...BUT THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING.THE STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN ADVANCE NORTHEAST AND EXIT OUR REGION VIANEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR CHARGING BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREATLAKES IN ITS WAKE WOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED PCPN BACK TO SNOW AS LATEMORNING MAX TEMPS IN THE 20S WOULD TUMBLE BACK THROUGH THE TEENS INTHE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Feet of snow possible with the Lake Effect? Holy hell we don't need anymore down here in southern Oswego county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I actually don't want this. Thursday and Thursday night still look very good for a single band somewhere within 15 miles of the Onondaga/Oswego County border. I am not all up on my met. skills but those 850 temps look dam cold. Does that mean small dendrites or can the uplift be enough to get to a good growth region? Are we talking 1/4 to 1/2 per hour or 1 to 2 per hour type stuff? Hoping this becomes a multiband, nuisance type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I actually don't want this. Thursday and Thursday night still look very good for a single band somewhere within 15 miles of the Onondaga/Oswego County border. I am not all up on my met. skills but those 850 temps look dam cold. Does that mean small dendrites or can the uplift be enough to get to a good growth region? Are we talking 1/4 to 1/2 per hour or 1 to 2 per hour type stuff? Hoping this becomes a multiband, nuisance type deal. Once a band gets going, the heat flux of Ontario will modify the column enough so that dendrites will be able to sufficiently grow...essentially the convergence line will be a bubble of opportunity for growth!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I actually don't want this. Thursday and Thursday night still look very good for a single band somewhere within 15 miles of the Onondaga/Oswego County border. I am not all up on my met. skills but those 850 temps look dam cold. Does that mean small dendrites or can the uplift be enough to get to a good growth region? Are we talking 1/4 to 1/2 per hour or 1 to 2 per hour type stuff? Hoping this becomes a multiband, nuisance type deal. ....It'll be the 1-4"/hr. stuff...the event will last stoutly for about 24 hours....a quarter inch per hour (if the band remained perfectly stationary)...would yield 6" (without accounting for settling during the measuring periods of 6hrs.)....This will be the LES event of the season for someone in Oswego and/or N. Onondaga Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for posting this Buffalo.....especially knowing you have no dog in this hunt!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Was just posting to show how wrong that map is. Side by side comparison. Ontario is very much fair game. I hope you guys get slammed. I always want all of upstate to get their fair share. If I wasn't working I'd go chase this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lek any shot in the dark with highest totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I actually don't want this. Thursday and Thursday night still look very good for a single band somewhere within 15 miles of the Onondaga/Oswego County border. I am not all up on my met. skills but those 850 temps look dam cold. Does that mean small dendrites or can the uplift be enough to get to a good growth region? Are we talking 1/4 to 1/2 per hour or 1 to 2 per hour type stuff? Hoping this becomes a multiband, nuisance type deal. Are you not feeling well? Git yur Boston on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'd like to see some of the meso models out of BUF....they really have become outstanding over the last 5 years or so, both in placement and intensity of single banded LES events. That said, pinning me down right now, I'd go with a lolly just east of Fulton (Penneville/Palermo) of 30"....but anywhere 10 miles either side of a line along the Hannibal, Fulton, S. Oswego Co. area into the S. Tug will be candidates for 2+ feet. MBY MIGHT be on the southern edge....my thinking as of right now... I especially like the speed of the progged winds....just right to become organized and carry inland a decent distance...I would caution that we are (as much as it doesn't seem) starting to get into the time of the year where daytime LES can become a bit disorganized due to the angle of the sun (creating differential heating thermals)...so don't be surprised to see a fantastically organized single band Wed. night Thurs. morning, become a bit cellular in nature later Thursday afternoon for a time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I actually don't want this. Thursday and Thursday night still look very good for a single band somewhere within 15 miles of the Onondaga/Oswego County border. I am not all up on my met. skills but those 850 temps look dam cold. Does that mean small dendrites or can the uplift be enough to get to a good growth region? Are we talking 1/4 to 1/2 per hour or 1 to 2 per hour type stuff? Hoping this becomes a multiband, nuisance type deal. Like Brian said (not in so many words).....Get your Big Boy pants on!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 2+ft yikes. Looks like it will be a snowy end of the week in my neck of the woods. Kinda running out of room to blow the snow yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'd like to see some of the meso models out of BUF....they really have become outstanding over the last 5 years or so, both in placement and intensity of single banded LES events. That said, pinning me down right now, I'd go with a lolly just east of Fulton (Penneville/Palermo) of 30"....but anywhere 10 miles either side of a line along the Hannibal, Fulton, S. Oswego Co. area into the S. Tug will be candidates for 2+ feet. MBY MIGHT be on the southern edge....my thinking as of right now... I especially like the speed of the progged winds....just right to become organized and carry inland a decent distance...I would caution that we are (as much as it doesn't seem) starting to get into the time of the year where daytime LES can become a bit disorganized due to the angle of the sun (creating differential heating thermals)...so don't be surprised to see a fantastically organized single band Wed. night Thurs. morning, become a bit cellular in nature later Thursday afternoon for a time.... Like Brian said (not in so many words).....Get your Big Boy pants on!! lol Thanks for the thoughts. I will get psyched for this guys. Maybe the cold is getting to me. Waahhhhhhwahhhhhh. Go big or go home. 18 Z GFS wants to spin up big trouble next week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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