CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 never got here to me, lol, maybe you cause your a bit to my N&E so you may be experiencing something right now as we're pretty much clear here and hope to stay this way as I'm looking for some records around here but with these pesky Lake clouds we'll stay in the single digits above I think instead of teens below if it were to stay clear, but I doubt it!! Central Park, Trenton as well as Philly all have a chances at setting all time low records established in 1888! if it happens that will be remarkable especially considering the urban development since then so it would be even more of a feat to achieve but it may actually be done! There's still snow in the air here but it's coming down lightly. Even with the clouds and snow I'm below zero. If we ever do clear out and decouple with the fresh deep snow cover temperatures should plummet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's what I'm hoping for as I now see stars but the wind is the biggest deterrent right now IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still sitting at +0.7 here. Doubt the wind dies down enough to get anywhere near -17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still sitting at +0.7 here. Doubt the wind dies down enough to get anywhere near -17. Yeah, I don't see it happening either even with the sky clearing out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Predict the lows for the following cities! -13 on the church thermometer on the way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, I don't see it happening either even with the sky clearing out! -1.8 an starting to clear out. I think we make a run at -10...we've had several sub zero nights already, lowest I saw was -9. KBGM at -5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Predict the lows for the following cities! KBUF at -9 as of 10:54am. I've never witnessed a -20 reading before in Buffalo I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 KBUF at -9 as of 10:54am. I've never witnessed a -20 reading before in Buffalo I don't think. Only two times in history did KBUF ever recorded a temp of -20F, one was Feb ’34 and the other was Feb’61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Only two times in history did KBUF ever recorded a temp of -20F, one was Feb ’34 and the other was Feb’61. Thanks for that. When was the last time of -10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Clear skies and light winds at KART airport, already down to -15F let's see how low can they go tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm impressed that it's down to -9 already at BUF. Still +2 at ROC and holding at 0.7 here with overcast, very light snow and a moderate breeze from the NW. We've already hit -10 once this winter with several other nights in the -5/-6 range. Coldest I've recorded in 11 years is either -10 or -12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks for that. When was the last time of -10? I think we had a sub -10 last winter also back in 09 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think Jan 1977 mean temp of 13.8 is within reach. 11.8 in February 1934 is going to be tough. The mean temp should be around 12 by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Clear skies and light winds at KART airport, already down to -15F let's see how low can they go tonight! KBUF is also at its 2nd snowiest Feb. on record already at 39.7". The snowiest Feb. on record was back in 57-58 season of 54.2". We have 2 more weeks to get 15 more inches. Going to be tough unless we get hit with that system next weekend. Sometimes those arctic fronts can pack a punch as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think Jan 1977 mean temp of 13.8 is within reach. 11.8 in February 1934 is going to be tough. The mean temp should be around 12 by the end of the week. Amazing. The potential to be the coldest month ever, and the snowiest Feb. on record. Would be something else...These last two years have been incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think we had a sub -10 last winter also back in 09 too. I don't believe we've hit -10 in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't believe we've hit -10 in quite some time. I'll have to check but I remember last year some sites in WNY got down to like -15 maybe not the airport though.. Btw the MADIS station in Chautauqua is reporting -23F as of 11! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think they have a shot at -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still -9 at 11:54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 KSYR was -13 on 2/13, this past week. So far this winter, KSYR has had 14 days with low temps of 0 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Stupid NY Times article claims that over 20 inches fell in Boston "on top the over seven feet already on the ground": http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/16/us/dangers-frustrations-and-snow-keep-piling-up-in-new-england.html When I was digging my in laws out in the Southtowns in November after way more than seven feet fell in three days, the snow pack was NOT literally seven feet deep. Do I think BOX has a 40+ inch snow depth? Probably, and that stuff gets dense like concrete - we know more than anyone else just what that means. It's truly awful to deal with. But the seven feet + 20 inches is just total BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i appreciate the true and accurate msrmt from the guy in Hamburg! too often, people say they have 3 feet on the ground and only have 17". Good pics too! Well done. my locale has about 20" on the ground. pics soon, i hope. But some in the community are saying that we have 4 ft. on the ground. And then we have the Rochester airport saying 3" fell last nite. -totally false. At least 6" fell in that time frame. The locale media mets have stopped reporting airport numbers due to their extreme inconsistencies. Supposedly, the NWS is looking into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, ROC airport numbers are obviously such a poor representation of the area that they need to be ignored. Obviously we get a lot of differences between points in WNY but they're just way low all the time. The thing that annoys me about "seven feet of snow on the ground" goes beyond using the high measurement to represent the entire Boston area. It's that settling and sublimation (and melt) have a huge effect on snowpack. Having a two or three foot persistent snowpack is a big deal - that snow is heavy, water laden, and isn't going anywhere quickly. So to say "seven feet of snow on the ground" sets ridiculous expectations for people who don't understand or experience extreme snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It got down to -19 on my unofficial outdoor thermometer. The sunshine and bright blue sky look nice from inside but thankfully I have today off from work and don't have to go out in the frigid air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 -13F on my Davis in Otsego County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still really liking the potential for a 24-36 hour LES event starting Wednesday evening through Thursday night/Friday morning. The GFS has a beautiful looking broad cyclonic flow over Lake Ontario with a lot of moisture to work with. Using lake temps of 34, BUFKIT profiles show LI CAPEs of ~1000-1200 J/kg, along with EL rapidly rising to near 15k ft Wednesday evening. This flow wavers back and forth between roughly 280-295 for about 30 hours before BL winds turn more north-northwesterly and mid levels dry out considerably. The ECM is relatively similar although much less optimistic on total moisture availability. I ran text output for FZY, and it does have a 24 hour period of 280/290 flow, although the BL looks to be a little more sheared then I would like to see. One thing I continue to worry about is how hi-res models will treat the half frozen lake. Hi-res models did absolutely awful with the single band off Ontario last week which brought parts of Oswego county over a foot of snow in a short period of time. The 4km NAM (above) had a very weak signature for LES, but continues to mis-interpret loose ice cover on Ontario, giving flawed surface outputs like the one shown above for this morning. The map clearly shows that the NAM is essentially treating part of the lake like land, which can severely limit how hi-res guidance will do with any Lake snows. The latest 1km satellite shows the majority of the Lake still is open water, with ice concentrated on both the north and south shores of the Lake. It's hard not to like a sounding like this: From what I've personally seen and talked about with a lot of others at SUNY Oswego, this is arguably the best setup for Oswego county this year (although potentially the early January event had a slightly better setup). The one thing I personally do not like is how fast the DGZ gets killed off by Thursday AM. Other than that, this looks like a good single band event for southeast of Ontario. I know there are some mets here that know a lot more then I do, so I'm curious as to what your thoughts are at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Almost wrecked my truck going over the skyway today, there is literally no traction on the roads if you try to brake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Predict the lows for the following cities! KBUF- -18F KJHW- -22F KROC- -17F KELM- 11F KITH- -13F KSYR- -10F KART- -32F KBGM- -13F KALB- -12F KUCA- -18F Actual low temps KBUF- -10F KJHW- -17F KROC- -6F KELM- -9F KITH- -4F KSYR- -14F KART- -34F KBGM- -7F KALB- -7F KUCA- -20F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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