LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Vodka Cold to start this thread as well as increased LES potential from this weekend on into the following 10 days for areas SE of L. Ontario!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 To cold man! This sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Definitely a winter wonderland for several days to come. Pattern looks to change a bit after the big coastal this weekend with storms in the southern branch being suppressed south of our latitude. Makes sense with the deep cold pressing in. The mid-Atlantic region is definitely due for a decent storm or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 To cold man! This sucks I don't know if I've just gotten used to it or b/c the sun was out, but the -5 really didn't feel that cold to me this morning. To me, the wind makes all the difference. I'll take -5 and calm any day over 25 deg with 40 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm at work and don't have time to gin up clown maps, so perused the next best thing...NAM qpf...12z NAM still loves CNY, showing a mini jackpot around SYR maybe finger lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny_tornado_lover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Anybody thoughts on tomorrow snow? I have travel plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I"ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's a very powerful system coming overhead tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if it can produce an area-wide 8"+ snowfall. Seems a bit high to me, though one of the local Rochester forecasters (Williams, I think) was actually calling for the potential of a convective band with thunder snow when the arctic front goes through. Visible satellite images today show 1/4 -1/3 of Lake Ontario (northern third) has some degree of ice cover. No idea how thick. That will also be interesting to watch as this series of arctic outbreaks settle into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Dave Longley from 9wsyr here in Syracuse is saying thunder and lightning with blizzard like conditions possible later tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Heavy burst of snow is gonna move through with 3-6" for a pretty big area in CNY. Snowing pretty good here again. Had 2+ft in the driveway this morning from the crazy winds we had yesterday and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That's a very powerful system coming overhead tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if it can produce an area-wide 8"+ snowfall. Seems a bit high to me, though one of the local Rochester forecasters (Williams, I think) was actually calling for the potential of a convective band with thunder snow when the arctic front goes through. Visible satellite images today show 1/4 -1/3 of Lake Ontario (northern third) has some degree of ice cover. No idea how thick. That will also be interesting to watch as this series of arctic outbreaks settle into the area. Indeed it is and if it continues diving in further West then those totals will be to low!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Visiting the GF for Valentines day in SYR. Perfect timing I guess. 3-6" seems reasonable for the Mohawk valley. Arctic front is a the wild card. If it ends up being convective w/ the height falls and thermo then someone could pound their way into a 4-8" IMHO. The post-frontal shortfetch off Ontario is another wild card. Oswego is in the firing line but could it make it down to SYR with ice and a short fetch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Was definitely not expecting this!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY353 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015NYZ001>006-140500-/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.A.0003.150215T0600Z-150216T1400Z//O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.150215T0000Z-150216T0000Z//O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.150214T1200Z-150215T2300Z/NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO353 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND EXTREME COLD...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.* TIMING...FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAYEVENING.* HAZARDS...SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND EXTREME COLD.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.* WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.IMPACTS...* A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF WINTRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THISWEEKEND.* THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL LEAD TOSIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERYDIFFICULT WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROPTOWARDS ZERO AT TIMES. BE PREPARED TO ENCOUNTER WHITEOUTCONDITIONS.* THE COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATEDANGEROUSLY AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES.FROSTBITE TIMES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF JUST MINUTES. LIMITYOUR TIME OUTSIDE AND DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS THIS WEEKEND.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER ISEXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVINGCONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOUSHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USEEXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURETHAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLYVENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED ANDUSED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOTBLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACESAND WATER HEATERS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INBUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAGBUFWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM, GFS, and RGEM all have that arctic band coming through tomorrow evening between 5-7. I'm a little surprised BGM hasn't issued advisories for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 The arctic front will become very active tomorrow afternoon, and slow down over CNY...the lift generated by it, coupled with the saturated lower levels and with added instability of L. Ontario, should help to produce a very exciting late afternoon into the evening!! I bet many places around L. Ontario DOUBLE what BOS ends up with, when it is all said and done.....(which for us around the lake, may not be until late Sunday night/early Monday morning!!! Going with some lollies in and around the SYR area of 16".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here's a shot from the NAM. Both it and the GFS have precip hanging back over CNY after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still doubting this but getting more excited. Lots of respectable folks (Bernie raynow, the lake effect king) saying bullish things about south Lake Ontario shore region. I wonder if the high winds will break that I've up a bit to allow better moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still doubting this but getting more excited. Lots of respectable folks (Bernie raynow, the lake effect king) saying bullish things about south Lake Ontario shore region. I wonder if the high winds will break that I've up a bit to allow better moisture transport. Dave, I don't think we will get super impressive totals much past, say noon on Sunday....but the time just as the front/trough eases through, and immediately behind it, will get some impressively low visibilities....we will be snowing from very low levels Sun. morn. but snow growth region should be (for awhile) lined up nicely!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It should be interesting Saturday afternoon when 35,000 people are heading to the Carrier Dome for the SU - Duke game just as the arctic front is passing through CNY. I remember a similar situation in 1977 when the arctic frontal passage that initiated Buffalo's great blizzard swept across CNY. I was living in the Mohawk Valley at the time and as I recall we got about 6 inches just with the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The arctic front will become very active tomorrow afternoon, and slow down over CNY...the lift generated by it, coupled with the saturated lower levels and with added instability of L. Ontario, should help to produce a very exciting late afternoon into the evening!! I bet many places around L. Ontario DOUBLE what BOS ends up with, when it is all said and done.....(which for us around the lake, may not be until late Sunday night/early Monday morning!!! Going with some lollies in and around the SYR area of 16".... You thinking Hills South of SYR jackpotting? I'm not gung ho on this squall line producing all that much sat afternoon. I can believe it'll be impressive from a chaos standpoint but usually they aren't long lived enough to drop more than 1-3". I'm also leery of LES production in such a strong CAA environment. Low tops, lake inversion dropping, drying air, smells like long duration with sub notch dendrites. I'll take it but thinking 4-7" looks reasonable for most of us. But I'll hold out weenie hope for that NAM qpf max to somehow nail us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Indeed it is and if it continues diving in further West then those totals will be to low!! let's hope it doesn't drop any more SW and in fact flattens out. Would love to see this be a Maritimes storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'll go with a Perrysburg Jackpot, they always do in upslope events like this off of Erie. Secondary jackpot will be around Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 You thinking Hills South of SYR jackpotting? I'm not gung ho on this squall line producing all that much sat afternoon. I can believe it'll be impressive from a chaos standpoint but usually they aren't long lived enough to drop more than 1-3". I'm also leery of LES production in such a strong CAA environment. Low tops, lake inversion dropping, drying air, smells like long duration with sub notch dendrites. I'll take it but thinking 4-7" looks reasonable for most of us. But I'll hold out weenie hope for that NAM qpf max to somehow nail us! Some of the local meso models, and higher res. NWS products have indicated a slowing of the AF/tight convergence zone...all the while we have some impressive mid level going's on. The models haven't done well the the shallow, low level LES/Lake enhancement/instability....your concerns of small dendrites/drying air are well founded, however, I believe before that ultimately takes place, we will have a 12-16 hour period where low level conditions will "overperform" vs. any progs....and I think that is what BUF is thinking.....for awhile...L. Ontario will pour snow....and it won't be a super short fetch.... Yes...later Sun. into Monday, I think it will look like it's snowing like the dicken's for hours, with accompanying accumulations becoming more and more disappointing....i.e. sugar snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think the hills will do all that much better....I'm thinking this is a "closer to the lake, the better" scenario....after Sat. evening, there isn't going to be a huge amount of moisture above 850: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 18z meso WRF model really do slow it down then kick in some lake enhancement(almost looks like a deformation band with added lake moisture). I feel the roads will not recover well after the initial burst and people leaving the dome at 8:30 or so could be in for a hell of a wait to get out and very hazardous driving. I am pumped. George hate to bother ya but how likely in your opinion do we get thunder and lightning? WSYR 9 hitting it big and stressing the dangerous conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Perryburg got 6.5" overnight without barely anything showing up on radar. Any upslope and they cash in huge especially with enhanced synoptic support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Right along the AF, with the added instability off Ontario, I think it could be a real possibility....I don't know if I'd "hit it hard", but there will be a lot of dendrites in the lower/lower-mid levels smashing about, that I think there will be a lot of charge loading in such a cold air mass. In this upcoming airmass, you don't need 30,000 foot tops to generate charge separation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Right along the AF, with the added instability off Ontario, I think it could be a real possibility....I don't know if I'd "hit it hard", but there will be a lot of dendrites in the lower/lower-mid levels smashing about, that I think there will be a lot of charge loading in such a cold air mass. In this upcoming airmass, you don't need 30,000 foot tops to generate charge separation... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Perryburg got 6.5" overnight without barely anything showing up on radar. Any upslope and they cash in huge especially with enhanced synoptic support. The higher hills certainly can "squeeze out" some added qpf, in an otherwise anemic lifting environment...with the AF and JUST behind it, the atmosphere will have enough lift to realize a nice qpf dump....right as the LE/LES comes ashore...as you get further inland/higher elevations, much of the llv moisture will be "used up" by the ambient lift...so what remains of the moisture as you get further away from the lake, won't produce the orographic benefit as it otherwise would be in a modest ambient lifting profile in the llv's. i.e. the general synoptic lift will diminish the orographic components, relative to aiding in qpf, due to the robbing of fairly shallow moisture coming off Ontario.... That said, the hills will still see the effect of orographic lifting, just in a conciliatory fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I love your analysis lek please post more!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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