Quincy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Who the hell is planning on going to sleep...other than Clinch Leatherhead?Someone's taking a nap before the games begin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Lots of bust potential for GYX? I think 10-14" is reasonable in spots from York County up through the mid-coast. Just depends on where the banding takes place. Slight letdown overall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 No let down here.... we are going to make BOX predictions easily. They are calling for 8-10 here and we are already more than half way there with the snow still falling. Hope we get stuck in a killer band tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I've already got over 6" down here. Heaviest snow bands of the season tonight for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Probably got about 3-3.5" of snow on the ground here in Harwich, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, it looks very well like it is going to be the GGEM that scored the coup with it's weakest ULLs and opening up at H5. Funny to think that a model everyone was tossing will be more right than wrong. Even the Euro kind of failed as it had the second strongest look in the upper levels next to the GFS. So in conclusion, the GFS tail spins its way into a snow bank, the EURO falls face first after slipping on black ice and the NAM gained a smidge of respect back after it's Blizzard debacle. Well, no matter what I guess I'll be looking at the GGEM for the upper level setup more often. I actually do not know though if Clinch's convective feedback argument is correct because honestly if the H5 low came in stronger I would think a solution closer to the GFS would have happened. I am kind of curious as to why the GFS upper level progs were so off with this one compared to the GGEMs. Something to think back on for the future. Maybe with this new upgrade it has a bias of keeping ULLs too strong or failing to deduce strengthening or weakening at H5 with respect to Arctic S/Ws. Very interesting model details have come from this storm, which I think will help us with future storms like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Snowfall totals are going to verify, and perhaps be higher in some places, if radar, what has fallen, and where the low seems to be ready to explode are any indication, particularly north of BOS. A few people will get extremely lucky. The couple people clogging this thread with the nonstop overly annoying gloom and doom will say they were correct because of where the low or convective bands or *anything* actually set up, but forecast wise, it's going to be a nice storm and the BOX map from earlier this morning is going to verify. Have fun y'all im not sure ANYONE in the Boston area has a right to tell those who are getting fringed AGAIN about gloom and doom cluttering a thread. Its gonna be a nice storm for some places but remarkably pedestrian in other places that arent 200 pct of climo with three to four feet otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LOL at the NAM qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Things are looking tasty. Might be time to disrobe....lol. I'm hoping for thunder snow. Some of the models have it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 9AM tomorrow Wow. We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Things are looking tasty. Might be time to disrobe....lol. I'm hoping for thunder snow. Some of the models have it. Sent from my iPhone Enjoy it, this one is all yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 love watching the local mets still forecasting a foot of snow in central east nh???? "this is gonna be tough to measure with all the wind, but yeah, you'll end up with a foot blown all over the place." Heck, they could forecast 2 ft of snow and use that excuse as to where the snow went all day long but im the guy watching it fall all night and can tell it isn't really snowing that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well, it looks very well like it is going to be the GGEM that scored the coup with it's weakest ULLs and opening up at H5. Funny to think that a model everyone was tossing will be more right than wrong. Even the Euro kind of failed as it had the second strongest look in the upper levels next to the GFS. So in conclusion, the GFS tail spins its way into a snow bank, the EURO falls face first after slipping on black ice and the NAM gained a smidge of respect back after it's Blizzard debacle. Well, no matter what I guess I'll be looking at the GGEM for the upper level setup more often. I actually do not know though if Clinch's convective feedback argument is correct because honestly if the H5 low came in stronger I would think a solution closer to the GFS would have happened. I am kind of curious as to why the GFS upper level progs were so off with this one compared to the GGEMs. Something to think back on for the future. Maybe with this new upgrade it has a bias of keeping ULLs too strong or failing to deduce strengthening or weakening at H5 with respect to Arctic S/Ws. Very interesting model details have come from this storm, which I think will help us with future storms like this one. ? open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow. We take Nice. I'm glad someone might get something good for round 2. Looking at some of the early things, I wonder if I might not even get advisory snows. That would be a hoot (I think I'll end up with 5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How is the snow growth consistently getting worse as the overhead intensity on radar gets better? wtf. Down to microfine flour flakes. 9.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 LOL at the NAM qpf. At 03z it has the low just off the NJ coast. 3 hours later at 06z the low is 100 mi E of Nantucket. The low went 300 mi in 3 hours, lol. Useless model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 How is the snow growth consistently getting worse as the overhead intensity on radar gets better? wtf. Down to microfine flour flakes. 9.9F It's not sand, but it isn't great either. The good stuff is with the coastal front enhancement. It's getting better here though. DAW is down to 1/2SM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 love watching the local mets still forecasting a foot of snow in central east nh???? "this is gonna be tough to measure with all the wind, but yeah, you'll end up with a foot blown all over the place." Heck, they could forecast 2 ft of snow and use that excuse as to where the snow went all day long but im the guy watching it fall all night and can tell it isn't really snowing that hard. It sure looks like it has been snowing in east central nh. There must be at least 3 or 4 inches over there since we are already between 2 and 3 here. The main storm hasn't deepened or moved up this way yet. Are you confident that a foot is not happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 At 03z it has the low just off the NJ coast. 3 hours later at 06z the low is 100 mi E of Nantucket. The low went 300 mi in 3 hours, lol. Useless model. There's multiple weak lows as the upper system hits the coastline. The one E of ACK will become the main low as the system strengthens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, NAM says monster bust in Maine... The modeling looks pretty good for E MA tomorrow morning though still...that's a nice looking band that should set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 It's not sand, but it isn't great either. The good stuff is with the coastal front enhancement. It's getting better here though. DAW is down to 1/2SM. I agree it is slowly looking better, slightly better snow growth and snow falling more thickly. I've had 2.5 inches here, you? Mildly optimistic in that as the dry slot moves up through SNE it seem to be starting to rotate a bit....maybe this keeps us snowing until the coastal deepens. 8 inches is my over under for a decent storm. Glad I came home, it looks fantastic outside. 10.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 First round coming to an end now here in ORH..... Let's see what round 2 will bring! -9C/15F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 There's multiple weak lows as the upper system hits the coastline. The one E of ACK will become the main low as the system strengthens. And that just sucks. 14/12 sn- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, NAM says monster bust in Maine... The modeling looks pretty good for E MA tomorrow morning though still...that's a nice looking band that should set up. Gyx stilk going 10-14 up through here and through erics area. Just not seeing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Wow, NAM says monster bust in Maine... The modeling looks pretty good for E MA tomorrow morning though still...that's a nice looking band that should set up. Why do we get the band and ME misses it? How does that work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Doubt it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Why do we get the band and ME misses it? How does that work? Well I'm not convinced they miss yet...but some runs are keying on almost a westward redevelopment of the ML centers that tucks SE of the Cape...so we're in a decent spot for it for a few hours as it deepens while ME is too far north in a sucker hole between the ML centers to our SE and the other area of forcing over by Nova Scotia... At any rate, it's not an easy forecast, but I still think there's surprises with this one. My forecast has been 8-12" for ORH-east...so we'll see how it works out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Coastal essex gettin decimated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well I'm not convinced they miss yet...but some runs are keying on almost a westward redevelopment of the ML centers that tucks SE of the Cape...so we're in a decent spot for it for a few hours as it deepens while ME is too far north in a sucker hole between the ML centers to our SE and the other area of forcing over by Nova Scotia... At any rate, it's not an easy forecast, but I still think there's surprises with this one. My forecast has been 8-12" for ORH-east...so we'll see how it works out in the end. Does it not look like the snow in ne mass, nh and s me is starting to pivot or rotate back a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Well I'm not convinced they miss yet...but some runs are keying on almost a westward redevelopment of the ML centers that tucks SE of the Cape...so we're in a decent spot for it for a few hours as it deepens while ME is too far north in a sucker hole between the ML centers to our SE and the other area of forcing over by Nova Scotia... At any rate, it's not an easy forecast, but I still think there's surprises with this one. My forecast has been 8-12" for ORH-east...so we'll see how it works out in the end. Will--do anticipate we'll get much more than another 1-3" when all is said and done? I'm pretty much in that camp at this point. The funny (or sad) thing is that if I break 5", I get more than I did in the blizzard. But, with the 5", the winter will climb to a solid 'C'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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