CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Its not even that. It's offshore.. But with that track who cares YOu get about 3 or 4" on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 for the queens...half inch of QPF from about ORH eastward including most of RI. 0.75" from the outer Cape to Cape Ann/PSM area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 YOu get about 3 or 4" on the Euro.I don't care what Qpf shows and I hope you don't either. With that track off AC.. We are freaking golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro fails to drop 0.5" for BOS. It's about 0.6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro fails to drop 0.5" for BOS. 0.6" I meant. Was looking at a frame too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro fails to drop 0.5" for BOS. I think you are off one contour...it barely misses 0.75 at BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 48 hours is tiny. I wouldn't count on it taking the next step between now and sexy-time. Snuff the storm candle; we mourn. Keeps it snowing all day Sunday. We'll see.... Euro really nailed that last blizzard so time to hang our hats... JK it was brutal. We'll see how models like the RGEM move forward with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Weird midlevels and surface looks better but output is quite meh. The mid levels on Euro have lacked compared to other guidance for a while. Not a good look for building confidence on a Foot in Boston. Works against us 2 fold. Weaker mid levels weaker inflow and that forcing isn't tight to our ML low it's pushed NW into Maine, and the lack of bombing Mid levels keeps the SLP further east and not the close tuck. Disappointing run. Hope Euro changes ML tune tonight and other guidance that is robust stays that way. Def not hanging hat on Euro at this point thou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's about 0.6-7 Yeah my bad with that. On the hires Euro it's about 0.6" for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man, obnoxious trend to for it to look better early, then late is fades again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Damn dual-low structure again with inverted trough in wake of western-most low... GGEM / RGEM / Euro all have this Too much momentum with this trough, not enough downstream ridging, not enough latitude for surface low to get its act together, baroclinicity too far east... several flies in the oinment. GFS will either have it's coup of the season or will live up to its stereotype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How's the qpf looks further north? GFS had all of NH over .50". Is this basically a Maine storm or does it through back moisture further north than Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blah - Euro not great. Keeps CCB farther east. Will be a historic storm at mid-levels though! Development is being hindered IMO by the fact that the cold dry air has pushed towards Bermuda. That'll slightly hinder consolidated development at the surface with the best moisture so far east initially, and that in turn doesn't provide positive feedback for more rapid intensification and organization aloft. The results are these strung out type solutions which are perfectly valid. MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Screams meso Banding nd deformation snows. I like it better than 00z for CT IDK it looks more horrific on my maps for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 for the queens...half inch of QPF from about ORH eastward including most of RI. 0.75" from the outer Cape to Cape Ann/PSM area. That is relatively dissapointing output, and it's getting to the point where QPF Queens begin to morph into reality royalty because we don't shovel at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Box map looks pretty good based on that run... Maybe even a shade too bullish. After 12z runs today.... 5-9" in se mass seems like a decent call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Brian/Mark's area down through here to ORH in a good spot for potential deform bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Damn dual-low structure again with inverted trough in wake of western-most low... GGEM / RGEM / Euro all have this Too much momentum with this trough, not enough downstream ridging, not enough latitude for surface low to get its act together, baroclinicity too far east... several flies in the oinment. GFS will either have it's coup of the season or will live up to its stereotype. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048 NW screaming winds, dry air. Biggest reason this isn't feeding back into the tighter mid level monster from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 500 low is actually south of 40N on the Euro at 48h at the same longitude as Montauk...if it ends up a bit stronger than progged on the 12z, that would be hellacious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Will be a historic storm at mid-levels though! Development is being hindered IMO by the fact that the cold dry air has pushed towards Bermuda. That'll slightly hinder consolidated development at the surface with the best moisture so far east initially, and that in turn doesn't provide positive feedback for more rapid intensification and organization aloft. The results are these strung out type solutions which are perfectly valid. MEH I can't wait for the 498dm contour to crash onto my roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That is relatively dissapointing output, and it's getting to the point where QPF Queens begin to morph into reality royalty because we don't shovel at H5. If that is worse case it still looks like fun for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gfs is pretty much alone. Either it scores a major coupe, or it would be like the Euro for NYC in the blizzard of 2015. I'm not a negative guy but I already learned my lessons that when a model is pretty much by itself, don't put to much stock into it. Learned it 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 IDK it looks more horrific on my maps for CTIf you are looking at qpf which I hope you aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty sick winds @ 900mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Time to ditch tight pants wearing D bags and go with all American Wranglers? Or flags at half-mast if Euro is right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If you are looking at qpf which I hope you aren't I'm looking at everything. Eastern mass would be in the banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If you are looking at qpf which I hope you aren't I don't think you know what you are talking about TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 500 low is actually south of 40N on the Euro at 48h at the same longitude as Montauk...if it ends up a bit stronger than progged on the 12z, that would be hellacious. It's sort of odd because it "looks" like the mid level centers are really ready to go to town as they emerge off NJ. Interesting though that most of the models today with the exception of the GFS have trended in an unimpressive direction IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Eastport ME would be knocked off the face of the earth. Their snowpack is already historical. Take a peek at the wind gusts while they are under heavy snow... Jesus Chr1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 500 low is actually south of 40N on the Euro at 48h at the same longitude as Montauk...if it ends up a bit stronger than progged on the 12z, that would be hellacious. Will, correct me if I am wrong but now at 12z (Sunday) the 5H low isn't fully closed like it was on previous runs, instead of seeing a trend toward stronger mid levels, is it going slightly the other way (even if it can still chance later or in now cast) Ya, I mean we are going to snow and get warning levels snows, but I want a memorable 4-6 hour memorable period Sunday AM and this is not getting it done verbatim. Just looks like we are trending toward lower end of guidance with the caveat that a small change in mid level strength would be a game changer (could double amounts) , increase winds during storm Sun am,etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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