TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I know.. .my god! I mean, flicks of light followed by low decible thundering at 15F or less with whiteout snow in high wind. Wrap it up, send it in, go home -- it's been great work day. Just wow It's still the NAVGEM in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Has the Navgem ever been right or verified on anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS was in that east camp last time and the NAM was actually on the west camp. Now you have them switched for this one. That too me is a bigger red flag, meaning the same will not happen. You have a less reliable camp now of the UKIE/GGEM/NAM instead of GGEM/UKIE/GFS. If the GFS isn't in the east camp I think the east camp is a bogus one. UKMET is largely not reliable regardless of scoring. GGEM can sometimes have issues with these split developments. The telltatale is the GGEM with the trough - it does this when it really is struggling in trying to develop a western low but the physics want it east. Probably erroneous. We may not see consensus, it may be a gametime deal or close to it. GFS has been pretty good this winter, although it's largely alone that doesn't mean it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 High wind watches hoisted for most of the Mid Atlantic, which is like the most exciting thing they've had in months. Quite a disappointing winter for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS giving 1.3-1.6" of liquid along the Maine coast. Wicked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Probably just about time to ditch the ensm but here are the 12z GFS. Interesting the initial spread at 36h. Overall a pretty tight clustering though by 42h & 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 High wind watches hoisted for most of the Mid Atlantic, which is like the most exciting thing they've had in months. Quite a disappointing winter for them. Yea, I thought that they'd have had a "decent winter"....much better up here, but I didn't think it would be this miserable down there, mainly because I did not expect the polar fields to misbehave the way they have. We can get away with it with gusto, but they can not. I still think they eventually catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro only out to 24, but it is deeper/southwest with the main energy in the lakes versus 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah, things are pretty much off the charts. But calendar months are arbitrary, I pulled climate numbers........ Add the cold temperatures and the snowfall, and it creates the huge problems. And if it's 65 in March and pours rain, watch out. Everything you said in there I agree with. Amazing Amazing Amazing. I knew about the temperatures coupled with snow in terms of the Middle of big storms, but the Sub-Freezing stretch I wasn't sure of since I'm not sure where to find that info. EURO very similar through 33 in terms of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yea, I thought that they'd have had a "decent winter"....much better up here, but I didn't think it would be this miserable down there, mainly because I did not expect the polar fields to misbehave the way they have. We can get away with it with gusto, but they can not. I still think they eventually catch a break. Agreed, wouldn't be surprised to see midweek storm trend back into a colder solution for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 BOX playing the middle ground for this one which seems to be a logical choice given lack of model consensus. No WSW's W of Worcester in MA. Through all the analysis here this morning and looking at the models as best I can I am inclined to say the wind and cold will be the more memorable factors with this one rather than snow totals in SNE. Somebody will have a decent jackpot but with the speed of the storm the fluctuations in modeled qpf and some relative screw zones and or poor snow growth from wind shattered dendrites it seems like double digit totals will be the exception rather than the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Agreed, wouldn't be surprised to see midweek storm trend back into a colder solution for them Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You and I went through this on the last big system and this one is even more of an issue. I think we may be underplayng the tug for this one to attempt to develop way offshore, or at least split/delay consolidation between the intense thermal boundary vs in advance of ULL. By the time it consolidates it's just too late. Assuming high ratios Boston nws seems fine. You and I have also had an incredible stretch of 2nd-half storms, to say the least: systems that at nowcast seemed to favor the eastern/less-impactful solutions, only to comeback in the 2nd half and verify similar to GFS. GFS has not done badly this winter, and that ensemble post by Baro lends credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It is a touch more amplified through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro only out to 24, but it is deeper/southwest with the main energy in the lakes versus 00z We just need its damn mid levels to look like gfs's and get that damn inflow wrapped in tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro looks better vs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro looks a bit farther offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I only have out to 36, but this is going to remain a good (a bit better even) solution for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blah - Euro not great. Keeps CCB farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Weird midlevels and surface looks better but output is quite meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Despite digging a bit more, the Euro still doesn't strengthen the MLs as much as I wanted to see...it is a bit S at the surface vs 00z but also a bit weaker now. It fails to just explode those mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro looks like the ORH on east system I figured this would be really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maine gets a shellacking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 EURO has a near-perfect setup for something big, just doesn't take the extra step. Glad we are still 48 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Weird midlevels and surface looks better but output is quite meh. It's because as the ULL goes offshore of ACY, it doesn't deepen as rapidly as 00z...so it actually ends up slightly E. It's a great track for the upper/mid-levels, but they are not as strong. Which is definitely a bit strange because I would have figured the opposite early on given the further S and southwest digging through the lakes and OH Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro looks like the ORH on east system I figured this would be really...Its not even that. It's offshore.. But with that track who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro fails to drop 0.5" for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like a output isn't as strong as I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 EURO has a near-perfect setup for something big, just doesn't take the extra step. Glad we are still 48 hours out 48 hours is tiny. I wouldn't count on it taking the next step between now and sexy-time. Snuff the storm candle; we mourn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Keeps it snowing all day Sunday. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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