moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RPM back to a toaster bath at 15z. Keeps the good stuff over NYC/Long Island. Not much up here in CT/RI though the North Shore does quite well. Thanks, cweat. I mean, ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This. You'd think it was the Mid-Atlantic with the acrimony and micro analyzing in here. Think this will be fun, whether it's a windy inch or a foot. Love the water vapor loop for the last 24 hours and the responding baroclinic leaf popping over the Mid-Atlantic. Coastal Mass has always been in the cross-hairs though, so it's natural for the more fringe or questionable areas to micro-analyze it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Some lucky places are gonna get 6-10 from round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Some lucky places are gonna get 6-10 from round 1 I'm pulling for 4" here--that'll be a win. sn- 9.9/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS now looks generally similar to the Euro with it's evolution, a bit juicer re QPF in western sections, but overall it's a fairly similar combo. I think if the Euro comes in similar to it's 0z run, take a blend of those two and call it a day. GGEM is out to lunch with the evolution compared to those two in that it doesn't even close off H5, so I'm tossing it unless the Euro shifts towards that evolution as well. This. GFS caved to the EURO a little later than most thought. Distortions of reality not withstanding. Should be abut 8-12" of high ratio fluff out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Coastal Mass has always been in the cross-hairs though, so it's natural for the more fringe or questionable areas to micro-analyze it. I don't mean to marginalize analysis in general. I just wonder whether the utility gained from micro analyzing tenuous features like inverted troughs, which often don't behave as modeled, is worth the agonizing (pro forecasters excepted). It's a big, complicated atmospheric dance, not sure how well any of the models will perform. At this point, I'm content to sit back and see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This. GFS caved to the EURO a little later than most though. Distortions of reality not withstanding. Should be abut 8-12" of high ratio fluff out this way. I thought you said you weren't getting anything over 8" no more than 24 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 After a morning low of -8F with a -16F dew, the temp and dew point have quickly rebounded this morning. Temp up to 30.1 and dew up to +16 on a breezy south wind. lol I know right, I am in your hood right now, flurries have commenced, the clouds rolling in off the ocean looked what happens in the summer prior to drenching stratiform rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Seems for this area, the NAM has been favoring the first part of the storm, where the GFS favors the latter. Even thought he snow total numbers are up and down, this seems pretty consistent modeling compared to many storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I thought you said you weren't getting anything over 8" no more than 24 hours ago? When? I never, ever said 8" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Spitting tiny snow flakes in Scarborough, ME and the grocery store is a madhouse; everyone talking about the 'blizzard'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I said 6-10" yesterday after the 18z RGEM came out. The reason I'm going to go with a final of 8-12" is to account for the possibility of 2:1 ratios, which should always be tactic reserved for very late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Most important Euro run of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Spitting tiny snow flakes in Scarborough, ME and the grocery store is a madhouse; everyone talking about the 'blizzard'. If there's one preparation to make for this storm, it's getting a secondary heating source in order if you lose heat when power goes out. I always find the grocery rush to be silly, people can get all the water they need from their tap, and most of us have enough food in the pantry to last plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hour 18-21 has 0 Snow at all for Northern RI haha. Oh EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hour 18-21 has 0 Snow at all for Northern RI haha. Oh EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro got wetter with the initial WAA stuff so far, most have an inch or two down already by 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro looks good for NH/ME. Naso much for most of SNE. It was a hair wetter in CT this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Most important Euro run of the day. Has spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For a forecasted blizzard in EM, I have never seen such unhappy weenies microanalyzing why they might get an inch or two less of snow than someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty far south with the IVT on the Euro, hits CNJ hard at hour 18. CCB really likes SNH and SWME so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 < 0.50" for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Upper level low over SW Ontario and Lake Erie is further southwest than modeled to be at this time. It was expected to be over BUF not over SW Ontario, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hour 18-21 has 0 Snow at all for Northern RI haha. Oh EURO. pretty much all models have the dry slot in RI between 1-4 am, No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 < 0.50" for BOS. Wow, underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro essentially says that if you're south of the MA/NH border, enjoy the snow you get this afternoon because it's the only snow you're going to get. EMA/the Cape has some SN- after 7 PM, everyone else pretty much nothing. No 6 hour period at BOS has more than 0.15" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 < 0.50" for BOS. what we got for PSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Has spoken That coastal front/mesolow/convergence area may save our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro essentially says that if you're south of the MA/NH border, enjoy the snow you get this afternoon because it's the only snow you're going to get. EMA/the Cape has some SN- after 7 PM, everyone else pretty much nothing. No 6 hour period at BOS has more than 0.15" QPF. There's some decent snow from 12z-18z tomorrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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