Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS made a huge cave towards the NAm/RGEM down near NYC, it now has the dual low structure with the second low center near MTP...it has the inverted trof in a similar spot though it generates no precip with it...I see up in SNE its still going ape**** Exactly it moved early but then uses the inverted trough to spin up through the atmosphere a death spiral that drives a death band consortium over SNe. Truth will be in the middle somewhere. 4-8 seems fine here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Congrats messenger on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You guys, the GFS can still flip to the Euro at 18z. We've got plenty of time for failure! You've just 5-posted yourself ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 gfs matches up pretty well with current conditions not saying its 100% right but seems like the best so far and im not just saying that because it gives me alot of snow.. ill be happy with 3 inches of wind whipped snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS is going to have to pull a EURO circa 1/27 if it's to fail.You know it willIt is just giving us time to go to Home Depot for some ropes and a chair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That 700 track is gorgeous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's not quite as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 gfs matches up pretty well with current conditions not saying its 100% right but seems like the best so far and im not just saying that because it gives me alot of snow.. ill be happy with 3 inches of wind whipped snow Ya Ok there ineedsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That 700 track is gorgeous though.Deepens it and tightens it up a lot stronger than the NAM/RGEM. It goes to town over you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Newer 13km GFS QPF from e-WALL. Sure likes Tolland County: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What is So weird about the GFS is the Beginning part is Stronger, and the backside doesn't have much. ODD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Newer 13km GFS QPF from e-WALL. Sure likes Tolland County: image.jpg It's had that weenie jackpot over Tol County for about 2.5-3 days now. I'm not sure what's causing it. The RPM has had it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ive been removing ice dams on peoples houses trust me its not fun going threw peoples yards with ladders and equipment i would welcome less snow until this week is over lol Ya Ok there ineedsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's had that weenie jackpot over Tol County for about 2.5-3 days now. I'm not sure what's causing it. The RPM has had it tooSREF had it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's had that weenie jackpot over Tol County for about 2.5-3 days now. I'm not sure what's causing it. The RPM has had it tooIt's north with your inv trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Congrats messenger on the GFS. Would be the ultimate Ray 40/70 if after bashing it for days I get two feet. Not going to do it ...said in my Dana Carvey voice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Also weird is that the GFS continues to Start the first Low more and more south and west (like the current pressure falls are showing) but then Rapidly catches up to where it and everyone else has had the New Low for the meat of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Would be the ultimate Ray 40/70 if after bashing it for days I get two feet. Not going to do it ...said in my Dana Carvey voice. Just start nowcasting. It seemed to work for the Blizzard 2 and a half weeks ago for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Also weird is that the GFS continues to Start the first Low more and more south and west (like the current pressure falls are showing) but then Rapidly catches up to where it and everyone else has had the New Low for the meat of the storm. That's because for this storm it suc$s. That's called feedback which is cover for a massive model failure. The gfs isn't that far off now it's getting closer and closer to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The HRRR is pretty awesome for many back this way - but an ugly looking screw zone outside of the inverted trough and devloping CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Would be the ultimate Ray 40/70 if after bashing it for days I get two feet. Not going to do it ...said in my Dana Carvey voice. How was your winter outlook? Really wish someone could have seen this coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's because for this storm it suc$s. That's called feedback which is cover for a massive model failure. The gfs isn't that far off now it's getting closer and closer to correct. Can I ask you something? Why oh Why have you been SUCH a Hilarious and Fierce Debbie Dower on this storm? Every Single Post. EVERY One! Negative, Negative, Negative, Negative. What is your deal? You need to read some articles on 12/16/07 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just start nowcasting. It seemed to work for the Blizzard 2 and a half weeks ago for you. My nowcast is some snow today that makes people happy, a huge cake hole tonight that makes people sad, a band rotating sw that makes people happy again and then it rotates out and we are sad. Mid level monkeys are in awe over the setup of the century. Qpf queens lament, model mongering forecasters are already cuing their "what went wrong" bits.... Meanwhile ride the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Pretty comical differences with an event starting in a few hours.... 6" to 16" seems to be the range on guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My nowcast is some snow today that makes people happy, a huge cake hole tonight that makes people sad, a band rotating sw that makes people happy again and then it rotates out and we are sad. Mid level monkeys are in awe over the setup of the century. Qpf queens lament, model mongering forecasters are already cuing their "what went wrong" bits.... Meanwhile ride the euro You found real reasons why to discredit the euro before the meat of the Blizzard by nowcasting, now you are just looking at the models to find reasons to discredit the GFS. It isn't the same because a model shows what it wants. Go and do some real nowcasting to see if it still provides you with the same reasons why the GFS should be wrong ala why the Euro was wrong 2.5 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's not quite as robust. Yeah...but still upping my 5-8" call from yesterday to 7-10" now. My guess: BOS: 8-11" ORH: 7-10" TOL: 5-8" BDL: 5-8" PVD: 7-10" ASH: 7-10" HYA: 8-11" MPM: 3-6" Newburyport: 9-12" Portsmouth: 10-13" Portland: 10-13" Easport: 18-21" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That 700 track is gorgeous though. Pretty much every model has had that...I've been pretty bullish because of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just speaking for my area specifically, the GFS seems to have caved. About .6" qpf is the same as the EURO. Again, just my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I feel comfortable adjusting my 5-9" call up a bit.... 6-10" will be my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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