HullMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good analysis by Weir L http://surfskiweather.us/a-little-help-from-a-friend-boston-blizzard-feb-14-2015/ Mr Norlun I will be in scituate. It's a tough forecast this one. I am going with 8-12" I think more moisture makes its way onshore than the nam is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good read, Tip... But where is EEN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good read, Tip... But where is EEN?Keene NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Military has already been called in to help National guard left hull after 48 hrs. You honestly cant even tell they were here. They will be back....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 John, National Guard has already been called in for several communities incl Hull and Leominster Yeah, I'm aware ... but I am talking about a full on intervention on a regional scope if 25+" of snow, the likes of which would be blue variety, dense and thick with southern PWAT origin. That kind of snow is a different ball-game altogether, but to lay it over a 40 to 50" snow pack .... ?! It's one thing to climatologically expect that ...circa interior Maine, ... outside of hibernating bear den out in the middle of no where... But you can incur that into a dense demography. Obviously the DGEX is some weird idea of a model that is currently putting out a solution that challenges one's belief... so be it. But there are multiple guidance types, including the GFS that bring a higher impact-type snow, with no melt off leading up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This looks very nice: sfc_con_3pres.gif That Low is WAY south and west of where the NAM And also the GFS has it - NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A few flakes here. I also have half a dozen migrant workers on the roof clearing of the snow and ice dams. So when I look out the windows, I see a LOT of snow coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That Low is WAY south and west of where the NAM And also the GFS has it - NAM GFSThat's pressure falls...not the actual low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is once again worthy of a dirty diaper. This is pretty amazing. Unprecedented that this late the gfs is so different than the other models. Either a terrifying failure or success. You know which way I am leaning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That's pressure falls...not the actual low position. But is it not obviously showing where the low is likely to form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is the thought process that after the pounding from the WAA snows this afternoon and evening that the snow totally stops overnight...or will it still be snowing at least lightly most of the night before going to town again tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 TWC in Cweats hood, just saw him go by,not in his tractor but as a......pedestrian. WAA moving in clouds quickly moving up from the ocean Hopefully they are able to capture the 100 snowflakes that fall on the nam in this wind.Waa snows make for great TV. RGEM should put this thing to bed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is the thought process that after the pounding from the WAA snows this afternoon and evening that the snow totally stops overnight...or will it still be snowing at least lightly most of the night before going to town again tomorrow morning? Some spots will stop, some will just be maybe very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Some spots will stop, some will just be maybe very light. So more showery in nature? Does that last the whole night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good analysis by Weir L http://surfskiweather.us/a-little-help-from-a-friend-boston-blizzard-feb-14-2015/ Mr Norlun Yeah they were up here skiing this week and we were talking about it... TK got me out there by saying some good Norlun discussions could be had, haha. Weir's an awesome guy and great skier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is pretty amazing. Unprecedented that this late the gfs is so different than the other models. Either a terrifying failure or success. You know which way I am leaning! GFS...GFS....GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hasn't everything kind of moved in the GFS direction. Not fully..but the Rgem did..the Euro did to some degree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That Low is WAY south and west of where the NAM And also the GFS has it - NAM GFS It is, I've been stating this since this morning. Even if it is the pressure change, it was way south of were nam gfs has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS...GFS....GFS... Gfs is failing from feedback I'm almost sure of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 But is it not obviously showing where the low is likely to form?Well in general the track tends to be toward the area of greatest pressure falls, but the center doesn't have to follow it to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hopefully they are able to capture the 100 snowflakes that fall on the nam in this wind. Waa snows make for great TV. RGEM should put this thing to bed soon. You'll ride the RGEM until it finds a setup that it fails in. This could very well be that meteorological setup it falls face first into the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I dunno - the 06z GFS backed off some...enough to wonder if it's previous consistency was a lark. If this 12z run backs again ... I don't think statements like '...It's amazing how different the GFS...' can be issued... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gfs is failing from feedback I'm almost sure of it. I think you've made that point pretty clear in the last 12-14 hours. I hope, for your sake, you're right....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RGEM looks decent for NH. Hooks that mesolow toward Rockingham/York Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RGEM almost has the NORLUN in C NJ/PHL and then develops the CCB for Metro west and RI. Almost a total shut out after this evenings stuff for me and Kevin though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Don't see a big change from 6z around here in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RGEM almost has the NORLUN in C NJ/PHL and then develops the CCB for Metro west and RI. Almost a total shut out after this evenings stuff for me and Kevin though. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ugh. Wouldn't worry about it. Nothings going to be determined until the thing sets up. Just relax and watch things unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wouldn't worry about it. Nothings going to be determined until the thing sets up. Just relax and watch things unfoldWhen all models fail, the top weenie rule is to revert to nowcast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When all models fail, the top weenie rule is to revert to nowcast mode. Relax ..we aren't going to take your snow and replace it with clouds. We're just commenting on things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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