Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Unfortunately we're in the time frame where we should be looking at mesoscale models but we have such crap to work with from the US it's difficult.Can you feel ok using the srefs over the Nam as a met this close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's amazing how out of sync the 32km NAM is with the 12km and 4km versions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No, euro only had about .5 for BOS too. I'd wait til rest of 12z guidance to see if ticked towards a gfs solution. If it didn't then yeah, 8" for Boston sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just an FYI for those that have a standby generator. I have a kohler 20kw,whole house gen running on natural gas, with a carb heater, set to test every Friday @ 3pm. Just over a year old, cranked yesterday wouldnt start, after three attemps, shuts down. My davis weather station yesterday am, recorded a 20 below windchill, spoke with techs to reset, try a few things, and it worked, i will start again later today to run 20 min or so just in case..they said they have been getting so many calls do to the temps, windchills etc. Sorry to post here, just an fyi maybe it was friday the 13th thingWind chill shouldn't impact equipment. But it was pretty cold. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 amazing how that norlun has been modeled for days somewhere over NYC/LI/SWCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Can you feel ok using the srefs over the Nam as a met this close in? It's all just a piece of the puzzle. To have the GFS/RPM/SREF in one corner is interesting but can't really do much more than just watch it. Our forecast is definitely on the higher side of Euro/EPS/RGEM so we're hedging a little higher anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No, euro only had about .5 for BOS too.It's 0.58" from what I see. 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM is once again worthy of a dirty diaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Snowing already here In CT!! Yea..Im at work near BDL and saw a few weenie flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think Pete b just saw the 12z NAM. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol, u guys where all agreeing last night, when it looked as if it would cave to the gfs. Now it's the nam is the nam is a horrible model, which it is. But it's in its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 we just know better and even close in it has wild swings sometimes Lol, u guys where all agreeing last night, when it looked as if it would cave to the gfs. Now it's the nam is the nam is a horrible model, which it is. But it's in its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think Pete b just saw the 12z NAM. Lol yeah, can't believe he said, latest model show less snow.. how about looking at all the models first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol, u guys where all agreeing last night, when it looked as if it would cave to the gfs. Now it's the nam is the nam is a horrible model, which it is. But it's in its range. it's swings, if it was consistent then people would take it seriously.. gfs has been pretty steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol, u guys where all agreeing last night, when it looked as if it would cave to the gfs. Now it's the nam is the nam is a horrible model, which it is. But it's in its range.Its never in range. Not even when the storm is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Tags? Can you elaborate? Interested to hear what implication this has. Thanks No mystery - sorry. UML, and they are just what we called any identifiable features in a satellite loop that can be tracked. If you take note of a piece of cloud element, or even vapor plume on a WV loop, and track it over space and time, you can very closely approximate the wind velocity. In the case of last night, there were estimates over 100kts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 yeah, can't believe he said, latest model show less snow.. how about looking at all the models first He's already back tracking on Wednesday. I don't get that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Its never in range. Not even when the storm is over Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Lol, u guys where all agreeing last night, when it looked as if it would cave to the gfs. Now it's the nam is the nam is a horrible model, which it is. But it's in its range. When it does not show snow, Well you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think our part of nh has been above .5 and below 1 for 3 days on most models. If we get decent ratios it is 6 to 10 with a Lillie or 2 of 12. SREFs cut back in Maine. Not much change here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 He's already back tracking on Wednesday. I don't get that guy.He and Wankum just lose meThe newbie on air mets don't go into analysis at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 He and Wankum just lose me The newbie on air mets don't go into analysis at least Because they barely know high pressure flows clockwise in the northern hemisphere..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 amazing how that norlun has been modeled for days somewhere over NYC/LI/SWCT That's where some of us here cash in. As the waa gets going it gets pulled back nw and rotates. Should be a good time whoever is lucky enough be under it for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good analysis by Weir L http://surfskiweather.us/a-little-help-from-a-friend-boston-blizzard-feb-14-2015/ Mr Norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 HA John will be on the cape....coincidence? Not a coincidence! His trip motivated me to want to go...but we may or may not meet up on Sunday. I'm going with my dad and we haven't seen each other in a while. A little annoyed at the bust potential but it's hard to believe that Essex County won't at least do reasonably well. ? Doug, it was confined to the immediate n sore, Boston and s shore. Didn't penetrate inland. Definitely an oversight on my part, you're right. But that being said, even some of the hi-res guidance doesn't really get the coastal front enhancement to BOS...by the time the CCB organizes offshore, we get strong NW flow and the CCB barely makes it past the very immediate coast. I mean I really don't think we should worry about the NAM, considering the SREF which should inherently be a more stable version of the NAM looks better and other guidance has better banding signals. I want to just trust the meteorology and see that with the ML Centers where they are, we should do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well .. unfortunately ... coherence is still lacking enough that even a mere 12 to 18 hours prior to this supposedly scaring the shister out of babes and new home owners, I am not fully convinced this thing evolves the way the bevvy of outlets purport. Just about 50/50, I could see this going down either way. Either: Dim sun, flurries with bitter cold/wind, while a scouring wind/snow event contract SE toward the Cape; CCB from the cold heart of hell hammering everyone east of a rough EEN/HFD line with life threatening wind chills and choking short duration accumulations through tomorrow morning. Flip a coin. Truth probably destined to be told somewhere between those extremes; that's about the only confidence I personally have in this outcome, that it will be in between. Just don't ask anyone to describe exactly where in the spectrum of impact this will be. What fantastic Meteorology, though. Really. We've won the lottery this year, no if ands or buts about it. There really has been no time off between events over the last three weeks. We relay gloating afterglow celebrations right into Special Weather statements that prove worth the while, with panache! 10 minutes later (it proverbially seems) said Special is warning or a blizzard?! Constant entertainment and wonder, unrelenting... By the way, for muse ... take a look at the 06z Frankenmodel... It has as 954 mb low in the GOM re the mid week storm. Estimating the intervals leading... over 2." liq equiv, all snow as a low bombs through the 960s while it passes near Cape Cod. It would be difficult to get one's mind around the implications if something like that happened. We'd be talking about 6' snow packs across much the area E of that same EEN/HFD distinction. Probably have to call in the Military - no joke. I guess at some point .. heh, folks may want to stop egging and hoping and wishing this schit on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well .. unfortunately ... coherence is still lacking enough that even a mere 12 to 18 hours prior to this supposedly scaring the shister out of babes and new home owners, I am not fully convinced this thing evolves the way the bevvy of outlets purport. Just about 50/50, I could see this going down either way. Either: Dim sun, flurries with bitter cold/wind, while a scouring wind/snow event contract SE toward the Cape; CCB from the cold heart of hell hammering everyone east of a rough EEN/HFD line with life threatening wind chills and choking short duration accumulations through tomorrow morning. Flip a coin. Truth probably destined to be told somewhere between those extremes; that's about the only confidence I personally have in this outcome, that it will be in between. Just don't ask anyone to describe exactly where in the spectrum of impact this will be. What fantastic Meteorology, though. Really. We've won the lottery this year, no if ands or buts about it. There really has been no time off between events over the last three weeks. We relay gloating afterglow celebrations right into Special Weather statements that prove worth the while, with panache! Constant entertainment and wonder, unrelenting... By the way, for muse ... take a look at the 06z Frankenmodel... It has as 954 mb low in the GOM re the mid week storm. Estimating the intervals leading... over 2." liq equiv, all snow as a low bombs through the 960s while it passes near Cape Cod. It would be difficult to get one's mind around the implications if something like that happened. We'd be talking about 6' snow packs across much the area E of that same EEN/HFD distinction. Probably have to call in the Military - no joke. I guess at some point .. heh, folks may want to stop egging and hoping and wishing this schit on.. Something tells me that won't be happening here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This looks very nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well .. unfortunately ... coherence is still lacking enough that even a mere 12 to 18 hours prior to this supposedly scaring the shister out of babes and new home owners, I am not fully convinced this thing evolves the way the bevvy of outlets purport. Just about 50/50, I could see this going down either way. Either: Dim sun, flurries with bitter cold/wind, while a scouring wind/snow event contract SE toward the Cape; CCB from the cold heart of hell hammering everyone east of a rough EEN/HFD line with life threatening wind chills and choking short duration accumulations through tomorrow morning. Flip a coin. Truth probably destined to be told somewhere between those extremes; that's about the only confidence I personally have in this outcome, that it will be in between. Just don't ask anyone to describe exactly where in the spectrum of impact this will be. What fantastic Meteorology, though. Really. We've won the lottery this year, no if ands or buts about it. There really has been no time off between events over the last three weeks. We relay gloating afterglow celebrations right into Special Weather statements that prove worth the while, with panache! 10 minutes later (it proverbially seems) said Special is warning or a blizzard?! Constant entertainment and wonder, unrelenting... By the way, for muse ... take a look at the 06z Frankenmodel... It has as 954 mb low in the GOM re the mid week storm. Estimating the intervals leading... over 2." liq equiv, all snow as a low bombs through the 960s while it passes near Cape Cod. It would be difficult to get one's mind around the implications if something like that happened. We'd be talking about 6' snow packs across much the area E of that same EEN/HFD distinction. Probably have to call in the Military - no joke. I guess at some point .. heh, folks may want to stop egging and hoping and wishing this schit on.. Military has already been called in to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 John, National Guard has already been called in for several communities incl Hull and Leominster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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