Roger Smith Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ship report earlier from 38N 69W then 68W (approx, this one is steaming ENE) sea temp 73 F. That position will (briefly) be in the warm sector of this storm at 06z. Just sayin ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ship report earlier from 38N 69W then 68W (approx, this one is steaming ENE) sea temp 73 F. That position will (briefly) be in the warm sector of this storm at 06z. Just sayin ... 73f sea temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hey guys...what happened to Maine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 "CONTINUED WOBBLES IN LOW POSITIONING AMONGST THE 14.0Z GUIDANCE. JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT W OR E UP TO THE TIME OF THE STORM CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE THAT CAN LEAD TO ANGST AND AGONY AMONG FELLOW METEOROLOGISTS. ITS NOT EASY AND CAN UNDERSTAND EVERYONES FRUSTRATION." The fact that they added that paragraph tell you all you need to know. They are scared to death of the public perception.....which is why they are stressing everything to an extreme...ie "category two hurricane", "life threatening". We often see this type of verbiage with tropical systems. Its all about the wobbles as the COC nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cant go full on board with GFS. BDL with .73 c'mon. No other guidance gets me to .5. No way all the Euro ensemble members are wrong and there is not 1 member that gets me to .5. The Rgem has been the best overall and the corrections Im seeing toward the GFS are not huge and dramatic jumps back this way. 4-6 seems reasonable in my hood. While that may be true..you don't and can't use ensembles to predict snowfall amounts..and certainly not 12 hours in advance. They are really only useful about 36+hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 A couple points of note: 1) who cares how much snow anyone gets--no one's going to get an accurate measurement anyway. 2) hoping to max out on the WAA out here. That's the only way for western areas to verify a warning--which I think we will do. 3) As my generator is hidden beneath the snow, I may actually shovel it out. Just in case...... 4) We picked a helluva time for our new kitchen project. Upcoming cool temps and breeze with plastic covered holes in the walls where new windows are GOING to be. On the plus side, we were able to actually insulate that portion of the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hey guys...what happened to Maine... You may get different opinions, but I think Maine is still going to do fine, it's more that recent model trends are looking better for various parts of s NE. Would expect you will get what you were expecting but it won't be as far ahead of other locations as some were expecting earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 73f sea temp? Enjoy your sledding bud, its brutal cold out there still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW best run of the RPM yet for us CT folk and everyone far south. I figure id post this since people have been posting some runs of the RPM. This is using 10:1 ratios as well. Accumulated precip is pretty much .5-1.0 east I91 and .2 to .5 west. At least we can say this model is getting in a its range to be a little more accurate. I'm thinking the higher totals for CT but Roger Smith, 8-12 W and 12-18 Eastern CT is a bit extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS did shift south a bit with the QPF and not as widespread with the heaviest stuff, but close to 00z. Frankly, with that intense lift I was a bit surprised.QPF bullseye over GHG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 There will definitely be a max with the inv trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW best run of the RPM yet for us CT folk and everyone far south. I figure id post this since people have been posting some runs of the RPM. This is using 10:1 ratios as well. Accumulated precip is pretty much .5-1.0 east I91 and .2 to .5 west. At least we can say this model is getting in a its range to be a little more accurate. I'm thinking the higher totals for CT but Roger Smith, 8-12 W and 12-18 Eastern CT is a bit extreme. I wonder if that is mostly WAA stuff or some from the coastal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW best run of the RPM yet for us CT folk and everyone far south. I figure id post this since people have been posting some runs of the RPM. This is using 10:1 ratios as well. Accumulated precip is pretty much .5-1.0 east I91 and .2 to .5 west. At least we can say this model is getting in a its range to be a little more accurate. I'm thinking the higher totals for CT but Roger Smith, 8-12 W and 12-18 Eastern CT is a bit extreme. RPM does not use 10-1. It does try to figure out the correct ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 FWIW best run of the RPM yet for us CT folk and everyone far south. I figure id post this since people have been posting some runs of the RPM. This is using 10:1 ratios as well. Accumulated precip is pretty much .5-1.0 east I91 and .2 to .5 west. At least we can say this model is getting in a its range to be a little more accurate. I'm thinking the higher totals for CT but Roger Smith, 8-12 W and 12-18 Eastern CT is a bit extreme. LOL--love my 2-4". There will definitely be a max with the inv trough. Where do you see that setting up, Scott? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wonder if that is mostly WAA stuff or some from the coastal ? Looks like less than 2" falls from the WAA and then when the coastal gets going that's when the rest comes in. So most is from the costal. Those heavy amounts in central and southern CT are from a heavy band that rotates in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 RPM does not use 10-1. It does try to figure out the correct ratio. It does not look like it based on the total forecasted precip. Take a look at this image there is a blob of 1.0-1.2 in SE CT exactly where the 10-12" amounts are and around that .8-1.0 exactly where the 8-10" amounts are and .6-.8 where the 6-8" is forecast almost to the T. I could be wrong though but comparing it to the snowfall forecast its nearly identical to 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like less than 2" falls from the WAA and then when the coastal gets going that's when the rest comes in. So most is from the coast. Those heavy amounts in central and southern CT are from a heavy band that rotates in. BOX is going with 2-4" with the WAA in a lot of the area I think (that's the call out here I know). If we can get the higher end there, I'm pretty confident we will get another 2" that we'll never be able to confirm due to wind to verify a warning. I'd be surprised if we come up with the high end of 8", but crazier things have happened. For example I recall a storm a long time ago (3 weeks) in which I was forecasted 24-30" six hours before go time and wound up with 5". I still rock back and forth huddled under a blanket over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It does not look like it based on the total forecasted precip. Take a look at this image there is a blob of 1.0-1.2 in SE CT exactly where the 10-12" amounts are and around that .8-1.0 exactly where the 8-10" amounts are and .6-.8 where the 6-8" is forecast almost to the T. I could be wrong though but comparing it to the snowfall forecast its nearly identical to 10:1I sit right next to the developer who works on the RPM and in fact asked him yesterday this very question if the model was outputting 10-1, he said no and that they have an algorithm to try and discern a correct ratio. Not saying it's really good, but it's not a straight 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It really cranks in CT after midnight as H7 gets going. All out sh*t show in eastern areas after dawn through 18z. Can't see QPF just going by the look.how did it look for this area Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL--love my 2-4". Where do you see that setting up, Scott? Thx. Somewhere between 84 and NYC I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 how did it look for this area Scott? Looked pretty good for 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looked pretty good for 8-12.thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I sit right next to the developer who works on the RPM and in fact asked him yesterday this very question if the model was outputting 10-1, he said no and that they have an algorithm to try and discern a correct ratio. Not saying it's really good, but it's not a straight 10-1. Ok, thanks...I wasn't certain of it, like I said I was just going off QPF vs snowfall images. Maybe its thinking mostly a 10:1 event for this then? At least for CT it would appear that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wind wind wind That is the focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Somewhere between 84 and NYC I think. Thanks--it'll be good for NYC to get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Ok, thanks...I wasn't certain of it, like I said I was just going off QPF vs snowfall images. Maybe its thinking mostly a 10:1 event for this then? At least for CT it would appear that wayVery possible. I thought it was 10-1 until yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Very possible. I thought it was 10-1 until yesterday. C'mon Dan get it together. You should know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not disputing that, but I mean "screwzone" as in total QPF.....almost sucker holes ME now. Heavier in sne, and epic in NB/NS. I read a post from Will saying that the EURO got lighter in ME/NH and better down here, too. Gotta love the flip flopping models. Went to bed happy, woke up disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looked pretty good for 8-12. What would be your best estimate for the Merrimac Valley including of course Dracut, Lowell, Methuen, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 10-14" has migrated west. Blizzard warnings up in RI now as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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