SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The RGEM seemed to hold from 0z for what it's worth. So, still a bit of disagreement. I feel good about going high in coastal Mass but I just am not feeling confident about these amounts the GFS wants to spit out in central mass and NERN CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Blizzard warnings converted for Southern CT and RI wow. GFS even a bit more impressive than 00Z with the sfc low a tick SW along with qpf. It's down to -10 here, even the shore is 0 at HVN, coldest I've ever seen round here. I know the cold is super impressive-10 here too. I'm supposed to be leaving to go sledding up and in N Maine, and I go get my trailer a half hour ago at the storage facility where I keep it, and I can't get in cuz the gate is FROZEN!! WTF?? So now I have to wait for the place to open later this am!! Now on top of it GFS GOING NUTS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I feel good about going high in coastal Mass but I just am not feeling confident about these amounts the GFS wants to spit out in central mass and NERN CT The disagreement is a little disconcerting. BOX seems to favor a non GFS solution. That said, it's been consistent and if anything getting better while the other models got a bit better at 00z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I mean, unless it's very wrong with the mid levels, that's a solution I would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Second blizzard warning of the year for the snow hole. It's about the anticipation and preparation, not the QPF at the end of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS seems to be in a class of its own here, fully exploiting the meso-scale explosive potential when -20 C air is drawn out over the 10-15 C ocean surface southeast of Long Island. This is why it is elongating the center back into the BM for six to nine hours during which time S+ bands will be widespread within 150 miles of the trough. The warm sector of this storm will develop so rapidly that as Kev is saying the results are likely to be higher totals throughout the region. On the larger scale, I can't imagine that e MA would see more snow than coastal Maine overall, which again implies higher totals than in current forecasts. Will therefore stick with my earlier estimates in general or within 10% and speculate 8-12 for central MA to w CT, 12-18 for e/c MA, n RI and e CT, 18-24 eastern MA and s NH trending to 24-36 coastal Maine into southern NB, PEI and parts of inland NS. I have a strong feeling that if the GFS is on the right path, the actual explosive phase will overperform and bring the central pressure down to about 970 mbs by 12-15z and 958 mbs by 21z-00z (by which time the main center would be near the southern tip of NS but the western hangback would still be affecting coastal MA). The sub-500 upper center over the 10-15 C waters drawing on 15-20 C waters further out will test the models to their limits and perhaps we will see results beyond what the models can project. Even verbatim the GFS is indicating a very intense storm. We are seeing signs of the hangback being the main energy provider which will be awesome for e MA. Very much looking forward to seeing this historic storm unfolding in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 The disagreement is a little disconcerting. BOX seems to favor a non GFS solution. That said, it's been consistent and if anything getting better while the other models got a bit better at 00z too. Well, the GFS held serve and even got a bit more aggressive, and now the NAM has joined it. I mean, tough not to hedge in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I just wanted to drop in briefly and make this official. I am rooting for much more snow to annihilate the entire New England region for the next 3 months at least. I am also pulling for all of you to stay very safe. There will be no accidents. Roofs will get cleared of snow safely. No one will fall on slippery spots. You guys are gonna be in snowy Heaven for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks! No one is going to fall into any cold rivers. I am officially weenieing out over New England snow!! I can't stop reading your fascinating threads. I can't stop gawking over your incredible pictures. I hope you get MORE SNOW than in 1717!!!!! I hope Ginxy's Triple Phaser comes to pass, and when it does, and it will, I hope it destroys all of New England with 7 feet of new snow, ON TOP OF WHAT SNOW YOU ALREADY HAVE. I am as serious as 1717. Enjoy this!!!! You'll be telling your grandchildren about it for decades! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS did shift south a bit with the QPF and not as widespread with the heaviest stuff, but close to 00z. Frankly, with that intense lift I was a bit surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, the GFS held serve and even got a bit more aggressive, and now the NAM has joined it. I mean, tough not to hedge in that direction. We still may see a compromise of some sort IMO. But man, that 700 low is in a sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 We still may see a compromise of some sort IMO. But man, that 700 low is in a sweet spot. It's almost as though it's shifting the screw zone that was supposedly setting up over sne over to ME because NS and NB still get absolutely croaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 well-written AFD highlights, 443am --- interesting that the BOX map is so bullish while still favoring non-GFS: */ Storm uncertainty...A variety of snowfall totals advertised by both public and private markets. Its a tough forecast that comes down to the proximity and location of the storm to New England expecting a tight west-east gradient of snowfall while guessing snow-to-liquid ratios. Continued wobbles in low positioning amongst the 14.0z guidance. Just a slight shift west or east up to the time of the storm can make a huge difference that can lead to angst and agony among fellow meteorologists.Its not easy and can understand everyones frustration. Aside we are reasonably confident that the eastern-half of S New England will experience significant if not life-threatening impacts. Points highlighted in the discussion below. &&Short term /Sunday/...*/ headlines...- a powerful and very dangerous storm...blizzard conditions- white out conditions / near-zero visibilities at times- extremely dangerous winds...hurricane force over cape/islands- likely structural damage and widespread power outages- minor to moderate coastal flooding / beach erosion- heed all warnings! Travel is discouraged! - Sunday morning into Sunday evening...moderate to heavy snow.Sweeping across 40n/70w benchmark southeast of Nantucket...forecast model consensus has the low bombing to a 970-975 mb central pressure about 100 miles east of Cape Cod. Bombogenesis ahead of which the warm-moist conveyor belt isentropically ascends and cyclonically trowals rear- Ward towards the west/NW-quadrant of the 850 mb-7 closed low. Combination of middle-level frontogenesis / deformation yields moderate to heavy snowbanding roughly parallel to the east New England coastline.Big question is where snowbanding materializes. Is the low captured close enough to the coast or does the better snowbanding remain just offshore? Non-GFS preference which is an outlier with positioning of the 850 mb-7 low. Focus upon the immediate NW-quadrant. Thus confidence of snowbanding to extend from NE Massachusetts on up the Maine coastline. Only considering an inch per hour snowfall rates as likely the Sweet-spot of snowbanding will be well north across East-Maine coast bordering Canada. Aside...visibilities a quarter mile or less for all of east Massachusetts combined with extreme winds /more on that later/.Tight west-east gradient of liquid-equivalent precipitation. Average 0.3-0.4 over areas encompassed in the blizzard...with an average of 0.1-0.2 for locales west. Snow-to-liquid ratios of 20:1. So expecting 6-8inches east...with only 2-4 west. Again a sharp west-east gradient is expected.Storm-total: roughly 4 to 8 west-east across the interior...roughly 8 to 14 over the east with higher amounts perhaps up to 20-inches anticipated locally over NE Massachusetts where there is confidence for heavy snowbanding. Again some caution...just a slight wobble in the low could yield significantly different outcomes. Our forecast nevertheless conveys our confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's almost as though it's shifting the screw zone that was supposedly setting up over sne over to ME because NS and NB still get absolutely croaked. There will be a lull I think. It probably will be just lighter snows as the meat really gets going near the south coast and pushes N and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 They could have left the category 2 hurricane crap out. That's just hype sh*t right there. Ugh. Son of Drag loves to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 There will be a lull I think. It probably will be just lighter snows as the meat really gets going near the south coast and pushes N and NW. I'm not disputing that, but I mean "screwzone" as in total QPF.....almost sucker holes ME now. Heavier in sne, and epic in NB/NS. I read a post from Will saying that the EURO got lighter in ME/NH and better down here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm not disputing that, but I mean "screwzone" as in total QPF.....almost sucker holes ME now. Heavier in sne, and epic in NB/NS. I read a post from Will saying that the EURO got lighter in ME/NH and better down here, too. It could if it sags south. Right now it's a sweet look for us so hopefully the other models come on board as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 They could have left the category 2 hurricane crap out. That's just hype sh*t right there. Ugh. Son of Drag loves to do that. Media will be all over that. But winds / arctic temps alone will be quite dangerous Sunday with some power outage potential, not unreasonable to stress that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Media will be all over that. But winds / arctic temps alone will be quite dangerous Sunday with some power outage potential, not unreasonable to stress that. It's unnecessary. You can stress impacts without comparing it to hurricane Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 They could have left the category 2 hurricane crap out. That's just hype sh*t right there. Ugh. Son of Drag loves to do that. Yea, the tone of that AFD is very uneven imo....hyperboling some aspects, and underselling others. I'm sorry, I'd be shocked if I didn't receive more than .3-4" qpf I call BS. Man, way to talk out of both sides of your mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Even the EURO gives me like .6" QPF.....the only model that is that meager is the GEM...maybe the UK, too?? I mean, at least blend the the EC/GFS QPF....jesus....yet, then they go on to add that ne MA could see up to 20" Talk about covering all of the bases. .3-.4" QPF, but up to 20". Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Btv WRF bumped up too. Today is when it will get useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's unnecessary. You can stress impacts without comparing it to hurricane Bob. Some folks in Eastern Mass. are near the breaking point and will, by unfounded human nature, want to blame somebody for their problems. I expect the hyperbole to grow, as a sort of unintended defense mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Am somewhat surprised how bullish the Box forecast map is while leaning non-GFS. I didn't think RGEM / Euro supported widespread 10-14" east of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Am somewhat surprised how bullish the Box forecast map is while leaning non-GFS. I didn't think RGEM / Euro supported widespread 10-14" east of ORH I thought the same. I guess they are thinking ratios, but the reasoning was a bit off. Not sure ratios will matter with 50+ mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 I thought the same. I guess they are thinking ratios, but the reasoning was a bit off. Not sure ratios will matter with 50+ mph winds. My honest opinion. They are scared $hitless because the stakes are so high knowing that society is predisposed to thirsting for blood with each passing event. Pretty much covering all of the bases. I mean, the government doesn't pay them six figures to tell people they are getting .3" of QPF, but don't be surprised if you get 20" and your house blows over. Either pick a side, or blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My honest opinion. They are scared $hitless because the stakes are so high knowing that society is predisposed to thirsting for blood with each passing event. Pretty much covering all of the bases. I mean, the government doesn't pay them six figures to tell people they are getting .3" of QPF, but don't be surprised if you get 20" and your house blows over. Either pick a side, or blend. Yeah was thinking the same... The public doesn't read the AFDs like we do. But they see and understand the map. And they see TWC and other local media maps. Better to be among "everybody was wrong" than "NWS totally failed to alert public on a big storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 They could have left the category 2 hurricane crap out. That's just hype sh*t right there. Ugh. Son of Drag loves to do that. Yeah that's a bit much..Even DIT wouldn't do that. That said I will gust to 60 easily here as will ORH an you will hit high 60's to near 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 They added a 14-18" area from Merrimack down to Boxford over to Topsfield and Essex points ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Cant go full on board with GFS. BDL with .73 c'mon. No other guidance gets me to .5. No way all the Euro ensemble members are wrong and there is not 1 member that gets me to .5. The Rgem has been the best overall and the corrections Im seeing toward the GFS are not huge and dramatic jumps back this way. 4-6 seems reasonable in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 "CONTINUED WOBBLES IN LOW POSITIONING AMONGST THE 14.0Z GUIDANCE. JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT WOR E UP TO THE TIME OF THE STORM CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE THAT CANLEAD TO ANGST AND AGONY AMONG FELLOW METEOROLOGISTS.ITS NOT EASY AND CAN UNDERSTAND EVERYONES FRUSTRATION." The fact that they added that paragraph tell you all you need to know. They are scared to death of the public perception.....which is why they are stressing everything to an extreme...ie "category two hurricane", "life threatening". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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