ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF really isn't too different from 12z...but I like the way it makes it there better. The ending is more defined. It's still 0.5" from ORH-east...though it's a little west with that line down in RI and east with it further north into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF really isn't too different from 12z...but I like the way it makes it there better. The ending is more defined. It's still 0.5" from ORH-east...though it's a little west with that line down in RI and east with it further north into NNE. Where's the .75 line Will? Fishes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still significant differences between euro and cmc and gfs. Euro remains in a middle ground we in some ways do RGEM and uncle. Yeah, you'd have 3 different forecasts...GGEM is a 3-6" event....Euro is like 5-10"....and GFS 12-18", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 QPF really isn't too different from 12z...but I like the way it makes it there better. The ending is more defined. It's still 0.5" from ORH-east...though it's a little west with that line down in RI and east with it further north into NNE. Exclude that single GFS blob driven by the 500mb hurricane, and you've got very good consensus among all the other models for pretty much what the Euro shows at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not sure either model will truly cave, pretty much comes down to which you believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro got better...better CCB at the end and the ULL is stronger/tighter. Probably not great news for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Where's the .75 line Will? IT's a bit further west on the Cape than 12z but east up near NH border...this run was def less snow for ME/NH and more for SE MA and RI...kind of the same in between. Keep in mind these changes are not monstrous...Euro typically doesn't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not sure either model will truly cave, pretty much comes down to which you believe Euro. Maybe a shade wetter. Thinking 6-11" in general for EMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, you'd have 3 different forecasts...GGEM is a 3-6" event....Euro is like 5-10"....and GFS 12-18", lol. Blend the EURO and GFS and you get 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Exclude that single GFS blob driven by the 500mb hurricane, and you've got very good consensus among all the other models for pretty much what the Euro shows at 0z. GGEM is pretty crappy IMHO...it's probably as bad as the GFS is good. Euro is a decent compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Euro. Maybe a shade wetter. Thinking 6-11" in general for EMA Still some time tomorrow.... Euro def looks a bit better here.... I'll stick to my 5-9" Would love for the gfs to verify.... Obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GGEM is pretty crappy IMHO...it's probably as bad as the GFS is good. Euro is a decent compromise. RGEM - probably too much focus way offshore - I think if we toss that aspect we'd have had better inflow. GFS - probably a bogus spinup that leads to a regionwide dump. Probably an error but okay otherwise. Euro - doesn't do either of those things. I think the Euro will be the king on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The waa part is a little unusual in that we have Alaska cold and if we get snow growth we can get half decent accumulations with the rates advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 IT's a bit further west on the Cape than 12z but east up near NH border...this run was def less snow for ME/NH and more for SE MA and RI...kind of the same in between. Keep in mind these changes are not monstrous...Euro typically doesn't do that. Ehh, 3 weeks ago it sure did, I guess though substitute NYC for the area off the NH coastline this run and you have what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The waa part is a little unusual in that we have Alaska cold and if we get snow growth we can get half decent accumulations with the rates advertised. Yep, plus OE later, plus some banding. I think the Euro is the way to go, and with that there will be some surprise jacks. It's a nicer system. I joked a day or two ago this was the type of system we would not get consensus. That's what is clearly happening. Models are all over the place still but only the Euro seems to be "okay" and free from what might be some biases/errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The waa part is a little unusual in that we have Alaska cold and if we get snow growth we can get half decent accumulations with the rates advertised. The soundings look almost windex during the WAA tomorrow...so we could get some pretty good stuff in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BTV WRF is really consistent on Hammering The Area between between Hampton Beach and Portland Maine with a Jackpot near PSM to extreme SW corner of Maine. Takes same exact idea as Hi Res 4KM nam but pushes dry slot behind WAA snows 30 miles NE and gives PSM area a mad snow blitz between 9pm and 5 am. Gives J POT 1.75 to 2.0 QPF ...prolly verify around 1.3 or 1.4 in Jack's given it's usually over zealous nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Tip's eye popping NAVGEM is even more eye popping. It went substantially west of its 12z run. It's even further west than the GFS position at 36hr lmao. Wonder if this is a good red flag or not, but this could become the Tippy storm that could! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ICYMI, we've got a forecast contest running for this event, it only takes a couple of minutes to enter and it's fun to see how your ideas do compared to verification. Deadline is at noon, so don't wait, enter now! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45715-forecast-contest-214-152015-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Trends sounded nice! Just got out of work. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 My sister was carting my licenseless azz back from the gym earlier before I crashed, and we were discussing the winter. I turned to her and said "you know why this one is my favorite...wanna know what makes it special? The fact that that we've gotten it all, 6', in such a condensed period, just under three weeks, with hardly any melting" She turns to me and says "you're sick".....I just burst out laughing thinking of this place. 9-15" is what I'd go with at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM got Better as it Continues to Cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z NAM is better for eastern areas, BOS is close to 1.0" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 6z NAM is better for eastern areas, BOS is close to 1.0" QPFne ma? I'm mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 My sister was carting my licenseless azz back from the gym earlier before I crashed, and we were discussing the winter. I turned to her and said "you know why this one is my favorite...wanna know what makes it special? The fact that that we've gotten it all, 6', in such a condensed period, just under three weeks, with hardly any melting" She turns to me and says "you're sick".....I just burst out laughing thinking of this place. 9-15" is what I'd go with at present.your ever stuck somewhere without a ride don't be afraid to give me a ring. You're only a town over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ne ma? I'm mobile Better for you as well, looks like 1.1"-1.2". Much improved for your hood actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 your ever stuck somewhere without a ride don't be afraid to give me a ring. You're only a town over.Thanks man. I appreciate it. Be back on the road April 6.....been a tough stretch.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Thanks man. I appeeciate it. Be back on the road April 6.....been a tough stretch.lolhappy for ya. Thats gonna be a sweet feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Better for you as well, looks like 1.1"-1.2". Much improved for your hood actually.sweet. I'll likely be in billerica for this one. Im hoping they keep the club closed or ill be getting out of work at 3am sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well, looks like the verdict is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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