SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GGEM is also terrible, if it's right, NYC gets more snow than BOS(0.4" QPF vs 0.3"). It's the GFS vs. the world at this point. The GFS is wrong, I'm not saying that because every other model destroys me with the norlun either, but no way in hell do the GGEM, Spc WRF, RGEM, UKMET and NAM all show the norlun in the same spot and have Boston much lower QPF and all be wrong...I do think its possible the CCB is better than those models show but its possible the GFS not really seeing the norlun trof is impacting its results over coastal MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Harv all in is a big plus. He's not one to hype when it isn't warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GGEM is like on it's own little planet. It speeds the system up, also farther east than on its 12z run. The whole evolution of the system is 100% different than any model even its own Canadian partner the RGEM. So either the GGEM is scoring a massive coup or the GFS is scoring a massive coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS is wrong, I'm not saying that because every other model destroys me with the norlun either, but no way in hell do the GGEM, Spc WRF, RGEM, UKMET and NAM all show the norlun in the same spot and have Boston much lower QPF and all be wrong...I do think its possible the CCB is better than those models show but its possible the GFS not really seeing the norlun trof is impacting its results over coastal MA. Unbiased, logical model interpretation ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well nam is a major snow for BOS, gfs is a crusher, RGEM is 6+, GGEM is advisory. Which one is on it's own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM Has been adament about us being dry slotted for a time. This needs to be taken seriousy imo since it picks up these meso-scale features that the GFS won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Eh...may eat these words in the day ahead but I think the GFS is out to lunch being so far west. It looks like in the vicinity of where the inverted trough tries to form it takes a modest speedmax and goes apesh** with it as it rips NE across SNE. Look at the barbs in the image above no the GFS. Remove that and what you have is pretty much all the models (about .3 or .4 less than the GFS). It's either genius, or it's a feedback type error. Will see in 24 hours regardless. GGEM/NAM/RGEM all pretty much agree. Well, for the last 18 hrs, 3 runs, not much has changed in the GFS scenario. I'll go with consistency until proven wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It actually could be feedback on the other models that could be shearing and allowing the S/W to escape ENE. Like I said, this won't be so conventional. It's a true "polar low". The greatest instability will be closer to the coast and that is where this will bomb, not near the conventional wisdom of where the baroclinic zone is further east because that might be why those models are east. They key on something so conventional when the setup is clearly not so conventional if that makes sense. I fully expect this to hug the coast more initially and then get captured and "semi-stall" a smidge east of Cape Cod. Well that's the rub. The GEFS mean is actually ENE of the last run, and at the same time the GFS OP is going nuts with that precip, the GEFS backed down on that blob from 18z to 0z. I'm going to say it's bogus...that the up to .5" QPF blob it tears across the region very quickly is an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I don't think I've ever seen tags move that fast through North Dakota on the satellite loop like I'm seeing tonight. It's actually kind of scary "Tag"? Pray elaborate oh bard of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Truro by Ballston Beach would be a good spot for NC forecaster to camp out and get some shots from. Decent exposure at it faces NNE. Another Breach quite possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I just can't see harvey so wrong,,,it almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Prediction: Whichever model gets this one right will get Tues night wrong. So it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 just using this as an example you dont need much snow to get a blizzard i know people in here were saying the snow wont fall hard enough earlier URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI947 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKESUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY...MIZ001-003-141100-/O.CON.KMQT.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150215T0300Z/KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK947 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPHWITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO PRODUCESIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHTINTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF HOUGHTON AND ON THE SOUTH SIDEOF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA NEAR JACOBSVILLE... WINDS WILL BE 15 TO25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.* LOW WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED LATETONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.* STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAYNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well that's the rub. The GEFS mean is actually ENE of the last run, and at the same time the GFS OP is going nuts with that precip, the GEFS backed down on that blob from 18z to 0z. I'm going to say it's bogus...that the up to .5" QPF blob it tears across the region very quickly is an error. Where are you seeing the GEFs already out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The GFS is wrong, I'm not saying that because every other model destroys me with the norlun either, but no way in hell do the GGEM, Spc WRF, RGEM, UKMET and NAM all show the norlun in the same spot and have Boston much lower QPF and all be wrong...I do think its possible the CCB is better than those models show but its possible the GFS not really seeing the norlun trof is impacting its results over coastal MA. If you are wrong so I am.....after really looking it over I think the OP GFS is bogus. It's not supported by the GEFS either and in fact they backed away a bit from the "blob"....this looks like a feedback deal. Max could be right, it could be that ALL the other models are missing this feature and the GFS nailed it but I don't think so. Remove that spin which is #1, oddly placed, #2 perfectly associated with the QPF max (definition of feedback), and it's not much different than the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I just can't see harvey so wrong,,,it almost never happens. Is he in the GFS camp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Where are you seeing the GEFs already out? I pay for the subscription here..these guys are good well worth the $10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is he in the GFS camp? For the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Is he in the GFS camp? I doing know. His forecast is 12+ inside of 128 and 8-12+ ORH/TOL east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 NAM Has been adament about us being dry slotted for a time. This needs to be taken seriousy imo since it picks up these meso-scale features that the GFS won't. 4KM Hi Res Nam gets dry slot to about your hiney * a touch SW* then doesn't push it past and sinks precip back down west and South http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/rad30.html that is as far NE the dry slot gets then its collapses south and fills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 just using this as an example you dont need much snow to get a blizzard i know people in here were saying the snow wont fall hard enough earlier URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 947 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 ...DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY... MIZ001-003-141100- /O.CON.KMQT.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150215T0300Z/ KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...HOUGHTON...HANCOCK 947 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2015 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF HOUGHTON AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA NEAR JACOBSVILLE... WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. * LOW WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY NIGHT. Last year in the Dakotas and Minnesota there we blizzard warnings with zero snow falling, just extremely high winds whipping the snowpack all over the place. The winds alone will make this storm impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I just can't see harvey so wrong,,,it almost never happens. Fella, he's not even if the non-GFS consensus is right. High ratios..... .4 to .8 or so precip...you get his numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What's interesting to me is that if you look at current radar and compare to GFS and NAM runs its both further S and W with concentrated precip amounts then those models. I think the NAM is further from current radar returns, NAM doesn't Highlight the returns over Iowa and Nebraska, GFS catches it a bit. Overall the GFS depicts a closer Nowcast time, its still off a bit SW. Just interest to see if this clipper approaches from a slightly further angle from the S and W then before I would the the transfer to the coast may follow suite. Which could lead to an better scenario for all of SNE. Not saying its happening, just interesting to watch. Getting close to Nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If you are wrong so I am.....after really looking it over I think the OP GFS is bogus. It's not supported by the GEFS either and in fact they backed away a bit from the "blob"....this looks like a feedback deal. Max could be right, it could be that ALL the other models are missing this feature and the GFS nailed it but I don't think so. Remove that spin which is #1, oddly placed, #2 perfectly associated with the QPF max (definition of feedback), and it's not much different than the consensus. I wonder too how much an impact it not having the inverted trof impacts the rest of the solution, of course you can argue the rest of the solution being different is why the inverted trof does not form.. I know some people argued that area of snow over N CT is the inverted trof but I don't think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For the most part.How do you know? He didn't say on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How do you know? He didn't say on air. Harvey was hitting Sunday morning hard. He was talking 1-2" per hour rates from the banding Sunday morning (though he called it it "bands of heavier snow" for the general public watching) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 4KM Hi Res Nam gets dry slot to about your hiney * a touch SW* then doesn't push it past and sinks precip back down west and South http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/rad30.html that is as far NE the dry slot gets then its collapses south and fills Lol my hiney. So you think the dryslot is short lived? What bothers me too is that the Nam doesn't show any sign of a death band coming through once the dry slot is gone and the low pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clinch, I think that the GEFs might actually be too close in now than at 12z today to really be of use. What is interesting to me is that the upper levels of the 0z op run of the GFS is an exact match of the 12z GEFs mean for the upper levels. Besides, if the upper levels continue to trend stronger up til this hitting the Jersey coast, I fully expect to see a result much closer to what the GFS currently has than what other models show. Remember the GFS is also much better with northern streamers than those way east model solutions of the RGEM/UKIE/GGEM/NAM. Maybe even better with northern stream systems than the EURO, but I don't know if I can go as far as to say that. This is definitely a big test for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I wonder too how much an impact it not having the inverted trof impacts the rest of the solution, of course you can argue the rest of the solution being different is why the inverted trof does not form.. I know some people argued that area of snow over N CT is the inverted trof but I don't think it is. Well - and I could be totally wrong - but if that inverted trough is going to be particularly robust - and it probably is at least for a time, the GFS could be going ape with it, triggering a convective type feedback process from the trough itself. Once that is initiated it would in and of itself wreck any trough as the 500mb feature would trump that. I mean IMO that's the entire difference in the "all others" vs GFS type camp. We can argue the nuances of .4 vs .65 from the others, but the GFS is a region wide dump. I think it's bogus. It doesn't make sense to me that it's closing the mid level centers while having what is basically a pin hole in the atmosphere rushing across SNE north of it. The others shear it out as you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How do you know? He didn't say on air. 12"+ in EMA and 8-12" to TOL/ORH is basically limited to the GFS as of right now. Maybe he's not completely buying it, but he obviously gave it a good bit of weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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