Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes GFS is a great example of what could go really well with this Yup. But do we buy it? I kinda don't. All I'm saying is that I've been hurt before and there's a natural hesitation when I try to let myself love again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yup. But do we buy it? I kinda don't. All I'm saying is that I've been hurt before and there's a natural hesitation when I try to let myself love again. I don't not buy it. With that mid level low track and how cold the low/mid levels are it's definitely a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't not buy it. With that mid level low track and how cold the low/mid levels are it's definitely a possibility. Personally, I just wanna see the Euro rock hard for a run down in this vicinity... and there isn't a ton of time left in which for it to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 12z GFS is pretty close to the 0z from last night. Probably some good snows back into VT. A hair better east and a hair worse far west. Blizzard for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Personally, I just wanna see the Euro rock hard for a run down in this vicinity... and there isn't a ton of time left in which for it to do so. Euro is definitely being a bit of a turd in the punchbowl for the 12"+ idea for E MA...it's pretty good, but doesn't quite get up to that extra gear that the RGEM/Global Forecast System (just for you) are doing....even the much maligned SREFs are hitting the idea somewhat. It's funny because not long ago, the Euro had been the most bullish on this whole threat. We'll see what 12z says...it's not like the Euro is bringing this ULL over GON...it's still pretty far south with the important features which is a good thing. I'd just like to see it deepen a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At least the breeze will make it look like it's snowing harder than it might actually be coming down in GC, so we can pretend. Just measure the drifts it'll make you feel better. Euro is kind of out there again, with all but uncle being such a solid hit odds are tremendous it folds like a cheap suit in 100 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro is definitely being a bit of a turd in the punchbowl for the 12"+ idea for E MA...it's pretty good, but doesn't quite get up to that extra gear that the RGEM/Global Forecast System (just for you) are doing....even the much maligned SREFs are hitting the idea somewhat. It's funny because not long ago, the Euro had been the most bullish on this whole threat. We'll see what 12z says...it's not like the Euro is bringing this ULL over GON...it's still pretty far south with the important features which is a good thing. I'd just like to see it deepen a little faster. I think the only saving grace keeping me from just clinging to the Euro because of trust issues is the fact that every now and then it's the Euro that fails to go brimstone when the brimstone is real. I'm not by any means saying that's the case here, but it's a possibility. We'll see what 12z does... even a slight shift to a better look dramatically shifts the overall consensus for me because of the weight I tend to give to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Great to see another crushing run from the GFS...but still have my guard up lest I be hurt again How much did it put up into NH? Probably a bit better for you than me, but who knows....maybe I get a get wrapping around backlash band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro is definitely being a bit of a turd in the punchbowl for the 12"+ idea for E MA...it's pretty good, but doesn't quite get up to that extra gear that the RGEM/Global Forecast System (just for you) are doing....even the much maligned SREFs are hitting the idea somewhat. It's funny because not long ago, the Euro had been the most bullish on this whole threat. We'll see what 12z says...it's not like the Euro is bringing this ULL over GON...it's still pretty far south with the important features which is a good thing. I'd just like to see it deepen a little faster. I agree. It's the only reason I didn't go 1-2'....I def. hesitated...the upper end of my range may be high. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Rgem on board is reassuring albeit a bit out of its range. I think we're heading for what most seasons would be a MECS. It this year we've been spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We talked about that earlier Wxniss. Must have missed it. Sometimes things get echoed in here and the initial thought is buried in pages. The relationship between how cold an ULL low is and the baroclinic requirements for surface low development: i.e., will a colder system such as this require less baroclinicity to develop a low than the models depict, and the party starts much sooner as this reaches ocean waters? This will be a rare example to learn from. Lots of pressure on the 12z Euro to flinch towards NAM/GFS/RGEM Did Uncle sober up from last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Total precip thru hr 66 12z GFS 10-18 for ORH east. Bath maine is gonna have so much OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Uncle not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm noticing a trend in a lot of the models to speed up the start and end times for snowfall with this. What was initially an early Sunday morning to late Sunday night event now looks like early afternoon Saturday through late morning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Run after run. Same general ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS is just about the perfect solution for the SE MA crew. Lock that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm noticing a trend in a lot of the models to speed up the start and end times for snowfall with this. What was initially an early Sunday morning to late Sunday night event now looks like early afternoon Saturday through late morning event A little different point but i think they are somewhat related. Pretty sure it was weathafella who said it. The big ones always start earlier than modeled and end later. I totally agree. I have seen 6-12 hours more snow than modeled more times than i can count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 In case it hasn't been posted...from ALY...I take. I think the winds are going to be more of an issue here than snow, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Must have missed it. Sometimes things get echoed in here and the initial thought is buried in pages. The relationship between how cold an ULL low is and the baroclinic requirements for surface low development: i.e., will a colder system such as this require less baroclinicity to develop a low than the models depict, and the party starts much sooner as this reaches ocean waters? This will be a rare example to learn from. Lots of pressure on the 12z Euro to flinch towards NAM/GFS/RGEM Did Uncle sober up from last night? Well I don't think there is a linear relationship like that, but there is something to it. Sometimes you get these weird little convective blobs or lines that Non-hydrostatic models may have trouble handling. I'm not saying to throw any solutions out, just to be a little cautious about them or any funky dual low deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie is still north and the least snowy solution for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ggem says outside of some island in Penobscot Bay nobody's getting that much. Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ukie is still north and the least snowy solution for SNE. Ggem says outside of some island in Penobscot Bay nobody's getting that much. Tossed Man, that is still a bit disconerting. EURO will probably look identical to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Like it or not the euro is the middle ground so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ggem says outside of some island in Penobscot Bay nobody's getting that much. Tossed I like the GGEM's mid-level look...much more than the Ukie...it's just not spitting out much more than a half inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well I don't think there is a linear relationship like that, but there is something to it. Sometimes you get these weird little convective blobs or lines that Non-hydrostatic models may have trouble handling. I'm not saying to throw any solutions out, just to be a little cautious about them or any funky dual low deals. Yeah for whatever reason GGEM/RGEM seem to do this alot. Both have had solutions with juggling lows that move this party too far east for SNE before it really gets organized. Sometimes (as in the previous blizzard) it's not the verbatim solution but a signal that the dominant low will actually be more west or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like the GGEM's mid-level look...much more than the Ukie...it's just not spitting out much more than a half inch of QPF. Still the h5 low kind of opened up as it was perhaps heading under us. I found that odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Like it or not the euro is the middle ground so far. This is why it's got those chafe marks from me... GGEM and Ukie pushing the goal posts in a direction few enjoy, very late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 25m25 minutes ago RGEM total snow through 8am Sunday is weak. Under 6" all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah for whatever reason GGEM/RGEM seem to do this alot. Both have had solutions with juggling lows that move this party too far east for SNE before it really gets organized. Sometimes (as in the previous blizzard) it's not the verbatim solution but a signal that the dominant low will actually be more west or east. Too late in the game for a middle ground solution. Surprised ggem pulls away post 48. Lots of down/smaller sized potential still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The American consensus vs. foreign suites not sitting easy right now... Ukie and GGEM looks make this 12z Euro run even more critical for confidence in the bigger SNE impact, and historically, we have reason to be nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.